Typhoon Tip Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 Looks to me like the 12z GFS is buckin' for a complete exclusion from that warm up next week at all at this point. Slams a violent BD/n-door front thru so aggressively that it pinches the warm south right under that ridge. Main front comes thru a day and a half later and we're still frosting at night. Welcome to April - you were warned 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Looks to me like the 12z GFS is buckin' for a complete exclusion from that warm up next week at all at this point. Slams a violent BD/n-door front thru so aggressively that it pinches the warm south right under that ridge. Welcome to April - you were warned Yeah the GFS was utterly brutal..... Euro is trying to sneak at least 1 early summer day in there next Wednesday, but then I don't like the look by 216h....you have the big low out in the lakes and lurking CAD setting up in Maine and NH. Verbatim it still busts us into the 70s next Thursday, but it's 48F in PSM/Cape Ann while its 75F in ORH....more often than not that gradient ends up 100 miles southwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 Sarah Mclachlan lurks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 In the arms of ..weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 Models couldn’t get a snowstorm correct 6 hours in advance this past winter But suddenly an op run at day 8-10 is nailing a back door? Puff puff pass. It won’t be in the 70’s everyday but it’s generally AN with many days of 60’s after the warm period. People do this every spring and it rarely ends up a miserable spring . It’s a background warm state with typical days like tomorrow interspersed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 Looks like ass after next week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like ass after next week. Good luck on that forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Good luck on that forecast Meh, doesn't mean 40 and drizzle every day, just kind of poopy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Models couldn’t get a snowstorm correct 6 hours in advance this past winter But suddenly an op run at day 8-10 is nailing a back door? Puff puff pass. It won’t be in the 70’s everyday but it’s generally AN with many days of 60’s after the warm period. People do this every spring and it rarely ends up a miserable spring . It’s a background warm state with typical days like tomorrow interspersed. Get ready to get back doored. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Meh, doesn't mean 40 and drizzle every day, just kind of poopy. Typically these end up with a day like tomorrow and then 2-3 days like today with 60+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Get ready to get back doored. Stick to wedding planning and cuffing and stuffing prostitutes 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 Don't panic Kevin... we're not saying "they are going to get that right" - we're just being honest about what they are indicating at this time. It's called actual Meteorological analysis - just fyi ... And that unfortunately, BD butt banging actually has a column in database tables at CPC. The column headers literally say,... "heating deg day | cooling deg day | daily anomaly | day high | day low | butt banged | ...." etc That said, you're characterization of 'how these typically end up' is laughably spun to the point of divorced from reality if/when thinking that is true in the month of f'n April. I'd give that to you from May 20th and onward, but BD climo is importing air masses off obscenely cold oceanic waters, and lingering snow pack over eastern Canada... I realize you just don't like them and it goes against the desired narrative, but it is what it is... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Stick to wedding planning and cuffing and stuffing prostitutes Good evening DIT. I’m not sure the latter is an arrest able crime in my fair city any longer. As for the former, to some, that’s up to debate. As always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Don't panic Kevin... we're not saying "they are going to get that right" - we're just being honest about what they are indicating at this time. It's called actual Meteorological analysis - just fyi ... And that unfortunately, BD butt banging actually has a column in database tables at CPC. The column headers literally say,... "heating deg day | cooling deg day | daily anomaly | day high | day low | butt banged | ...." etc That said, you're characterization of 'how these typically end up' is laughably spun to the point of divorced from reality if/when thinking that is true in the month of f'n April. I'd give that to you from May 20th and onward, but BD climo is importing air masses off obscenely cold oceanic waters, and lingering snow pack over eastern Canada... I realize you just don't like them and it goes against the desired narrative, but it is what it is... I also don’t live in ENE or ENNE. You guys are much more susceptible. Sure we get them, but we LL roll the dice it’s not a week of misery as you guys are calling for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I also don’t live in ENE or ENNE. You guys are much more susceptible. Sure we get them, but we LL roll the dice it’s not a week of misery as you guys are calling for It's true there is circumstantially some built in variance that makes it nastier back this way than where you are, but this early in the season ( April's) ? - you will get hammered with 42 F NE cold drill this early. So it's 38 here and 42 there... Point being, it's too earlier to count on your geographic region to be 'protecting you' ... You'll need to give it another month, and then that will pay dividends/more like to help out. By the way, fairly large correction on this 18z GFS back toward more height falls in the SW lending to a more robust ridge/longevity in the east. The sfc featuring also much less BD saddled. It may not be right, just as much as the 12z brutal cold layout - which was true for everybody on that run, btw - may not be right, but I think it stands out as model instability. We are talking D6 - 10 for that warm spell - whatever comes of it... That's plenty of time to afix it one way or the other. Again...just reporting the better interpretation of the guidance just scene - not intending to use out of hand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: I also don’t live in ENE or ENNE. You guys are much more susceptible. Sure we get them, but we LL roll the dice it’s not a week of misery as you guys are calling for Instead of 42 you’re 44. Got it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Instead of 42 you’re 44. Got it. Enjoy the seabreezes next week 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 18z gfs back to summer next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: I also don’t live in ENE during the spring, only in winter when coastal storms are involved do I firmly land in ENE. We switch to WNE climo this time of year to avoid the maritime influence. True, makes sense. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 27 minutes ago, powderfreak said: True, makes sense. Enjoy the shut down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 Sunny and mild today, great day. 63.4 hi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 46 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: 18z gfs back to summer next week the difference between 12z is funny. looks pretty torchy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saguaro Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 The ridge that will eventually (hopefully?) be migrating out that way is establishing itself over us at the moment. Today's high was right around 90. We had our first 90s of the season about a week and a half ago. Rest of this week: Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 93. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Wednesday Night: Clear, with a low around 64. Breezy, with a northeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 94. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Thursday Night: Clear, with a low around 63. Northeast wind around 5 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high near 97. East northeast wind around 5 mph. Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 65. Calm wind becoming east northeast around 5 mph after midnight. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 97. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon. On Sunday it starts moving out of here. Next week will be much cooler with 70s. On 4/4/2022 at 2:53 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah... who was I mentioning this too - can't remember. But there's probably like 1::12 or 1::9 type of return rate on median passable Aprils, otherwise, the more common rendition falls beneath whatever 'median' is in this context - so some subjectivity to that. I don't think 3 days nicking 70, while the other 20 some odd days are < 60 ... ass loads of cold rain... NE wind days ... putrid car top slush, saves any face for example. I've just been wilted too many times. I'm not going to stick the flower of optimism out there ever again for this piece of shit climate anus that seems to shit in your bed in direct deliberate proportion to said optimism. Like I said last page or two ago, you count on the BDF screwing it up, whether it is on the model or not, in a scenario like that next week. Then, it's a daily elimination game to remove having one occur, day by day. You really have the best way of wording the unique experience of eastern new england's climate. I say that as someone who endured the same misery there for many, many failed springs and summers. I watched that same elimination game carry well into summer, and forecasted heat waves get continually trimmed back on both the front and backside until, as mentioned it was basically a transient warm sector for 24-48 hours. On 4/4/2022 at 2:56 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Having said that... May 2005 is still the worst month that has ever happened in the space-time continuum existence of this planet. Ironically... no April has ever been that bad. I remember there being a particularly miserably, cold, rainy period in mid to late May 2002 before the pattern suddenly and dramatically reversed in early June, going on to be a summer for the ages. It wasn't as bad as that 2005 stretch but it was memorable. Maybe more so in Maine than the rest of NE. On 4/4/2022 at 6:19 PM, eekuasepinniW said: peepers on 4/4 wtf I heard them out in southwest CT back in mid March when talking to a friend of mine who lives there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 Congrats Phin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 Nice sunrise this morning. Glad we today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: Nice sunrise this morning. Glad we today. Bonus day of sunshine and mild weather. Full sun. Was 26F at my house at 5am with heavy frost. Looks like we grab one more good spring ski day before 4 days of garbage time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 Enjoy the gloom... it's the only gloom we got. Friday afternoon looks salvagable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Enjoy the gloom... it's the only gloom we got. Friday afternoon looks salvagable Worst month of the year. By far... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 Yeah nice surprise sun this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 Might be able to snag some elevation convection later tomorrow evening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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