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Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture


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8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Yes, there is mounting evidence that late November and December are cold, i.e. a true front-loaded canonical La Niña, typical with Maritime Continent forcing. However, Maritime Continent forcing works well until you get into the end of December and January/February with the wavelength change, then it’s torch city

Isn’t the best month in La Niña patterns usually January? Yeah the blocking breaks down in Jan but often that’s when you get the strongest blizzards, when the blocking breaks down (like during late Jan last year). Then yeah, Feb and March are usually ass because like you said, the same forcing that helps in earlier in the winter starts working against us later on.

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10 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Nope!  Last day of January had to shovel roofs with 42 plus inches on them caving everything in. Early Feb brought more snow…then it shut down…but it was epic. 

We had a moderate overrunning event everyone forgot too. Think it was early March. Had 4.5 when I was in Norwalk.

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10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Dec10-Jan11 is the best stretch of winter experienced. Just big dawg after big dawg. No pennies, all benjis. It faded in Feb but the damage was done.

The pack stuck around all of Feb, had an icy top, my puppy at the time use to run on top of the deep pack, even I could walk on top after a while.

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16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Dec10-Jan11 is the best stretch of winter experienced. Just big dawg after big dawg. No pennies, all benjis. It faded in Feb but the damage was done.

Yes…that was a great run, with the very rare elusive Norlun thrown in for good measure. A very Fun/exciting 6 weeks.  

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Was the boxing day storm in 2010 the one where it wasn't showing on models 48 hours prior, then there was seemingly some glitch with the GFS model and many blamed that when it started showing a hit? I could be wrong. Either way..I was initially excited when the storm starting showing on the models..but as usual, my excitement waned when it trended to be too much of a hugger. 

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13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, the PNA took over and we rocked into early Feb.

Into early March here, though the good snow events ended with 2 advisory storms 2/25-28, resulting in winter's tallest pack.  We narrowly (like, 20 miles) missed a big dump on March 7, getting only IP/ZR and about 20 hours w/o power.  Lots of 15-20" reports from the mountains.
The 3 big dawgs in Dec/Jan were merely 2 nice storms and a 1.5" fringe here, while the first 2 had verified 3+ hour blizzard conditions at BGR, WVL and AUG.  Drove to/from AUG in both and the conditions were way worse on Boxing Day than on Jan 12 - wind seemed well below 35 in the latter one, 50+ in the former.

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16 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Was the boxing day storm in 2010 the one where it wasn't showing on models 48 hours prior, then there was seemingly some glitch with the GFS model and many blamed that when it started showing a hit? I could be wrong. Either way..I was initially excited when the storm starting showing on the models..but as usual, my excitement waned when it trended to be too much of a hugger. 

I think you were in Acushnet? You definitely had decent snow. But yeah that was the storm. 

That storm was disappointing for many though outside of the low level forcing and deformation band. Other than the 95 corridor into RI and NYC to the Berks...it wasn't much to right home about...but winds in the interior were blowing near 50kts.

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24 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Was the boxing day storm in 2010 the one where it wasn't showing on models 48 hours prior, then there was seemingly some glitch with the GFS model and many blamed that when it started showing a hit? I could be wrong. Either way..I was initially excited when the storm starting showing on the models..but as usual, my excitement waned when it trended to be too much of a hugger. 

My recollection was that the Euro and GFS kept swapping run to run - in opposite directions - between slammer and OTS.

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think you were in Acushnet? You definitely had decent snow. But yeah that was the storm. 

That storm was disappointing for many though outside of the low level forcing and deformation band. Other than the 95 corridor into RI and NYC to the Berks...it wasn't much to right home about...but winds in the interior were blowing near 50kts.

Wareham at the time, right on Swifts Beach. iirc we had a 3-4" before sleet/rain. yeah I'm sure the part of acushnet I ended up moving too did a bit better..maybe like 6-8"

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1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Wareham at the time, right on Swifts Beach. iirc we had a 3-4" before sleet/rain. yeah I'm sure the part of acushnet I ended up moving too did a bit better..maybe like 6-8"

If I only looked down at your sig lol. That's right, I recall.

PYM on down to the Cape sort of got porked that winter relatively speaking. I recall even Duxbury getting rain in one event and my folks in Marshfield one town NW, getting pasted. 

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If I only looked down at your sig lol. That's right, I recall.

PYM on down to the Cape sort of got porked that winter relatively speaking. I recall even Duxbury getting rain in one event and my folks in Marshfield one town NW, getting pasted. 

Although we ended up a bit above normal..that was probably the year I peaked with my weather related angst. I think after getting blue balled the year prior with the Mid-Atlantic season, then missing out by like 5-10 miles on several storms during 10/11, it was too much to take at the time. There were several seasons that I had less snow recently, but they just weren't THAT frustrating.  

Found this for 12/26/10

image.thumb.png.167ddac12c4fbfcd0b8a38d813a0832e.png

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On 10/22/2022 at 12:48 AM, snowman19 said:

His profile says he’s a “winter weather expert” :clown:

He's actually a meteorologist. Since 2008. Now is he correct..not entirely sure. But.. he is a professional, so I'm sure there is some truth in his post.

He is also calling for a mostly positive PNA for the winter. I guess we will see how this plays out

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1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Was the boxing day storm in 2010 the one where it wasn't showing on models 48 hours prior, then there was seemingly some glitch with the GFS model and many blamed that when it started showing a hit? I could be wrong. Either way..I was initially excited when the storm starting showing on the models..but as usual, my excitement waned when it trended to be too much of a hugger. 

Ya that’s the one….GFS had the glitch, and when it did show the big hit after sending it out to sea for a few days, NWS said to ignore that run due to convective feedback, but it was finally catching on. 

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23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

And just like that all the hype on Twitter about Eurasian snowcover, recurving super typhoons and GOA/western North America warm blobs stopped: cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

 

 

Well the toughing gets replaced by ridging in AK so that looks like a change to me. 

Also, nobody cares about Eurasian snow cover any more. I don't care  if the snowpack extending into Beijing, it means jack dick to me.

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