Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,541
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Gonzalez Brittany
    Newest Member
    Gonzalez Brittany
    Joined

Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture


40/70 Benchmark
 Share

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

I used to worry but honestly now I could care less.  Winter is winter and hopefully it snows.  If not....oh well.   I do think this year brings AOA snow totals for most of New England.

I still worry, but TBH, 4 consecutive years of well below normal has kind of inured me to the variation. I'm no longer waiting for the other shoe to drop. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, weathafella said:

I used to worry but honestly now I could care less.  Winter is winter and hopefully it snows.  If not....oh well.   I do think this year brings AOA snow totals for most of New England.

Having lived in DC and come back to some of the worst winters I can recall, I don’t spend headspace worrying about it either. It just is whatever it wants to be. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could see a path to a 5th this year, but not a 6th.

It looks like a strong -EPO/+TNH pattern sets up mid-late month and probably into early December….question is does it have staying power beyond the beginning of December? It may depend on the MJO progression….

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not sure if I buy this mtn torque stuff pumping a PNA ridge into December. I'm not ruling it out, but I think we may get more SE ridging late month into early December. I'm more interested to see if we can keep this ridging near the Aleutians into Santa's fanny while maybe the Scandi ridging tries to pop again. I'd like to pin that PV closer to Hudson Bay.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure if I buy this mtn torque stuff pumping a PNA ridge into December. I'm not ruling it out, but I think we may get more SE ridging late month into early December. I'm more interested to see if we can keep this ridging near the Aleutians into Santa's fanny while maybe the Scandi ridging tries to pop again. I'd like to pin that PV closer to Hudson Bay.

I won’t buy the +PNA in December La Niña until it’s staring us in the face. 
 

Not talking about a transient ridge either. Like a locked in PNA+ for 2-3 weeks. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure if I buy this mtn torque stuff pumping a PNA ridge into December. I'm not ruling it out, but I think we may get more SE ridging late month into early December. I'm more interested to see if we can keep this ridging near the Aleutians into Santa's fanny while maybe the Scandi ridging tries to pop again. I'd like to pin that PV closer to Hudson Bay.

Wouldn’t a -EPO, -PNA/RNA, +NAO work for New England in December? I know south of there would probably have issues 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Wouldn’t a -EPO, -PNA/RNA, +NAO work for New England in December? I know south of there would probably have issues 

It depends on the orientation. Not all -EPO/-PNA/+NAO patterns are alike. Some are Dec 2007 but others can be last year. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure if I buy this mtn torque stuff pumping a PNA ridge into December. I'm not ruling it out, but I think we may get more SE ridging late month into early December. I'm more interested to see if we can keep this ridging near the Aleutians into Santa's fanny while maybe the Scandi ridging tries to pop again. I'd like to pin that PV closer to Hudson Bay.

 

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I won’t buy the +PNA in December La Niña until it’s staring us in the face. 
 

Not talking about a transient ridge either. Like a locked in PNA+ for 2-3 weeks. 

Agree.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Models are busting bad on the MJO. They liked to have never come around to the fact it would make it out of phase 7. But even when they came around they've had it barely in Phase 8 & headed to the COD. Well...its still chugging along. 

Screenshot_20221107-144122_Chrome.thumb.jpg.aba0fef32f0b8bfc9b1963e4bf4a48cb.jpg

 

I'd disregard LR modeling with models not getting MJO correct...and that will be reflected in models. Hopefully that get a better hunch of what's MJO is going to do.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure if I buy this mtn torque stuff pumping a PNA ridge into December. I'm not ruling it out, but I think we may get more SE ridging late month into early December. I'm more interested to see if we can keep this ridging near the Aleutians into Santa's fanny while maybe the Scandi ridging tries to pop again. I'd like to pin that PV closer to Hudson Bay.

 

SE ridge will appear but very short lived.

  • Confused 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

SOI 30 days prior is the always the first thing I look at when trying to predict a winter storm.

There is so much BS voodoo it's ridiculous. People are using all these indices like it's 2004 all over again. As if models right now don't factor any of this in.  Please tell me if there is a low in the Bering Sea so that I can predict the next warm spell in 3 weeks. Or whatever that joke of a theory is. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

Models are busting bad on the MJO. They liked to have never come around to the fact it would make it out of phase 7. But even when they came around they've had it barely in Phase 8 & headed to the COD. Well...its still chugging along. 

Screenshot_20221107-144122_Chrome.thumb.jpg.aba0fef32f0b8bfc9b1963e4bf4a48cb.jpg

 

I'd disregard LR modeling with models not getting MJO correct...and that will be reflected in models. Hopefully that get a better hunch of what's MJO is going to do.

RMMs are usually too noisy. The forcing right now is in two areas. Should see that go into IO and then maritime continent which probably will cause SE ridge to try and appear. 

 

https://wsienergy-product-content-prod-us-east-1.s3.amazonaws.com/1/graphics/subseasonal_diagnostics/SubSeasonal_LongitudePlots_vp200.ECMWF.anom.MJO.5S-10N.221108100714.png?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIASYJFQFN3PQ47UOU5&Expires=1668004364&Signature=uaELYPpJl8zksQ9TP0MDbk%2BjrAc%3D

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

RMMs are usually too noisy. The forcing right now is in two areas. Should see that go into IO and then maritime continent which probably will cause SE ridge to try and appear. 

 

https://wsienergy-product-content-prod-us-east-1.s3.amazonaws.com/1/graphics/subseasonal_diagnostics/SubSeasonal_LongitudePlots_vp200.ECMWF.anom.MJO.5S-10N.221108100714.png?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIASYJFQFN3PQ47UOU5&Expires=1668004364&Signature=uaELYPpJl8zksQ9TP0MDbk%2BjrAc%3D

That is why I don’t understand the proclamations that SE ridging isn’t going to happen. With eastern IO and Maritime Continent forcing, it’s going to rear its ugly head

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

That is why I don’t understand the proclamations that SE ridging isn’t going to happen. With eastern IO and Maritime Continent forcing, it’s going to rear its ugly head

Well I don't rule it out....would be silly to be too cocky in weather. I'm just saying why I am thinking it will try to occur again. It doesn't mean 2021 happens again or anything like that. 
If anything we may see flow to try and go more zonal...not really a sign of SE ridging..just less amplitude near AK.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...