Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,541
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Gonzalez Brittany
    Newest Member
    Gonzalez Brittany
    Joined

Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture


40/70 Benchmark
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

yup, 1.1" more than here.  That was the first season for the Snow Table, and over its 11 season LEW has done a lot better compared to climo than here.  Same goes for Lava Rock.  I'm waiting for climo to reassert itself.  :lol:

Hopefully the wait will end this winter, Would like to see another 07/08 repeat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

2010-11 was a fabulous winter for snow depth during the 7 week blitz from Boxing Day to early February.

Comes in 3rd place actually for my personal  “where I am” static depth records. Not bad. 

First place was 2015. Second place was 1995.  I resided in Middlesex County all three of those years … Which granted it’s a big enough space that the southern aspects tend to have less than the northern. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wasn’t there a winter back then … I want to say 2008, there was a huge December. We kept getting these Southwest flow/front loaded type 6 to 10 inch events lightly crusted over with Misty glaze.  Cold air kept up winning out. Most of them were forecast to change the straight rain.   

Three or four of them and then some junket ones in between and we ended up with like 40 inches or something.  Probably right up there with some of the Decembers of any lore.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wasn’t there a winter back then … I want to say 2008, there was a huge December. We kept getting these Southwest flow/front loaded type 6 to 10 inch events lightly crusted over with Misty glaze.  Cold air kept up winning out. Most of them were forecast to change the straight rain.   

Three or four of them and then some junket ones in between and we ended up with like 40 inches or something.  Probably right up there with some of the Decembers of any lore.  

that was December 2007. it was pretty awesome

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

A couple 12"+ ones would be nice, Those have been rare here the last 10yrs or so.

I'd limit that to the past 4 years, as 16-17 had 3 of 12"+, tied with 2000-01 (And all 6 of those storms were at least 15.5") while 17-18 had 2, 19.9" and 16,5".  Biggest since 17-18 is 12.4" last February.  Season's biggest snowfall averaged 15.1" for our first 20 winters here (includes the pitiful 5.9" of 05-06), only 11.0" for the most recent 4.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The pattern looks like it’s going to turn cold according to the models. I’d bet we start seeing snow threats pop up on the models soon, possibly even 1 or 2 runs showing a blizzard! Now it is November, so it’s very unlikely that it will even snow at all never mind a major nor’easter/blizzard. I’m just saying, the models will probably start showing it soon. Even though those fantasy storms won’t happen, it’s a good sign that the pattern is moving in a favorable direction going into December. The way things are going, in a month there’s a decent chance we will be tracking a storm for real. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One of the reasons why I’m starting to get really excited about the potential for a big December is the La Niña. I was of the impression that the La Niña was going to be weak by now, and be nearly gone by late December. That impression was based off the models a couple months ago, and things changed. That La Niña is not weak, not even close. I saw a comparison with this years La Niña and last years from early November on another board, and this years looks quite a bit stronger. It’s WAY stronger in the eastern 3 and 1.2 regions, but it’s also stronger and more expansive in the 3.4 and 4 regions as well. It’s straight up just a stronger La Niña, and is basin wide. This is reflected by the MEI values as well. Am I smoking some good shit, or does this Nina look closer to 2010-2011 than 2016-2017? I know it’s not super impressive by ONI but the area of below average temps is just so much more expansive than I would expect to see from a weak nina.

80C111FA-50F6-41D9-AA4F-E0A1D2CE8BA3.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, George001 said:

One of the reasons why I’m starting to get really excited about the potential for a big December is the La Niña. I was of the impression that the La Niña was going to be weak by now, and be nearly gone by late December. That impression was based off the models a couple months ago, and things changed. That La Niña is not weak, not even close. I saw a comparison with this years La Niña and last years from early November on another board, and this years looks quite a bit stronger. It’s WAY stronger in the eastern 3 and 1.2 regions, but it’s also stronger and more expansive in the 3.4 and 4 regions as well. It’s straight up just a stronger La Niña, and is basin wide. This is reflected by the MEI values as well. Am I smoking some good shit, or does this Nina look closer to 2010-2011 than 2016-2017? I know it’s not super impressive by ONI but the area of below average temps is just so much more expansive than I would expect to see from a weak nina.

80C111FA-50F6-41D9-AA4F-E0A1D2CE8BA3.png

I wonder why there’s no more talk about the GOA and NA west coast SSTs on twitter anymore lol

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, snowman19 said:

FWIW: 

 

Obviously something is off with the NAMER projections...the ridge from the W Coast to the Bering is probably too far east...reality is it probably would be more troughy over the W Coast because if the ridge truly was that broad no way would the ensuing trof be as narrow as shown..you'd probably have a trof all the way to the E Coast with the SER being pushed offshore 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Obviously something is off with the NAMER projections...the ridge from the W Coast to the Bering is probably too far east...reality is it probably would be more troughy over the W Coast because if the ridge truly was that broad no way would the ensuing trof be as narrow as shown..you'd probably have a trof all the way to the E Coast with the SER being pushed offshore 

That map is mean sea level pressure for 3 months. That almost seems useless to me. lol

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guesses based on previous winters that start with a very warm November. Unscientific but probably more likely to pan out than the Old Farmers Almanac. 

Nov: 6-8 AN; Dec: 4-6 AN; Jan: 1-3 AN; Feb 5-8 AN; March 0-2 BN. In December we'll have some cold snowy outbreaks but a couple of multi day spells of very high temps (generally low to mid 60s) will skew the month much above normal. The annual "grinch storm" is likely on the ticket. January will be closer to normal with a couple of inland runners with mild, rainy weather  and maybe a coastal that will bring snow to much of the interior (and coast Boston northwards); February will be very mild and dry. Normal to below normal temps in March with significant snowfall throughout the region except for the Cape and islands.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...