bwt3650 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Well I don't rule it out....would be silly to be too cocky in weather. I'm just saying why I am thinking it will try to occur again. It doesn't mean 2021 happens again or anything like that. If anything we may see flow to try and go more zonal...not really a sign of SE ridging..just less amplitude near AK. Wouldn't a little SE ridging be ok , especially up here in late Dec/Jan? No suppression issues. Last year was frigid and dry in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Another option is the ridge really retros by the Bering Sea and a -WP pattern develops with some ridging out west? I've heard that thrown around too. Yes. I saw someone mention that possibility on twitter, I forget who it was, but they mentioned a possible -WPO/poleward Aleutian ridge developing in December in response to the Niña forcing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 18 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: Wouldn't a little SE ridging be ok , especially up here in late Dec/Jan? No suppression issues. Last year was frigid and dry in Jan. Oh yeah some ridging is good. Don't want cold and dry kiss em goodbye stuff. I don't fear the ridge here, so long as it's not a massive +3SD ridge or something lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Despite some people saying to ignore the La Niña and that “other drivers will determine this winter’s pattern” La Niña is definitely going to make her presence felt: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 it's second behind 2010-11 lmao which still remains a pretty good analog given how December might shake out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: it's second behind 2010-11 lmao which still remains a pretty good analog given how December might shake out Yeah, that might be one of the best matches now. 1985-86 is becoming less and less of a match. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, that might be one of the best matches now. 1985-86 is becoming less and less of a match. it's a great match with PDO, MEI, general SST anomaly placement for ENSO - yes, 2010-11 was strong, but the placement of the anomalies is just as important, and they're very similar. this Nina is also no slouch QBO is also a dead ringer. I can see this December going somewhat like that one in terms of blocking, but that was a unicorn of a winter and to expect anything of that magnitude is foolish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 8, 2022 Author Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: it's a great match with PDO, MEI, general SST anomaly placement for ENSO - yes, 2010-11 was strong, but the placement of the anomalies is just as important, and they're very similar. this Nina is also no slouch QBO is also a dead ringer. I can see this December going somewhat like that one in terms of blocking, but that was a unicorn of a winter and to expect anything of that magnitude is foolish 2020 dead ringer for QBO, too...those are my two primary QBO analogs. 2010 is one of 5 primary ENSO analogs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 8, 2022 Author Share Posted November 8, 2022 I am planning on a late Thursday/Thursday night publication, as I am going away with the wife on Friday and having it carry over would end in divorce. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am planning on a late Thursday/Thursday night publication, as I am going away with the wife on Friday and having it carry over will result in divorce. Lmao…ahh that’s funny. Ya get it out and let the chips fall where they may. And go have fun and relax on vacation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 2010-11, Was well above normal winter in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: 2010-11, Was well above normal winter in NNE. Was awesome everywhere in New England I guess. I remember riding in N Maine that season in the last days of March and early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Another shite worrisome winter coming for entire 6 state region. When will we break out of this ? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Another shite worrisome winter coming for entire 6 state region. When will we break out of this ? Feel free to say shit without the e. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Another shite worrisome winter coming for entire 6 state region. When will we break out of this ? What???? Where are you coming up with this SHITE! Lol ( I edited for the youngsters ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 13 minutes ago, weathafella said: Feel free to say shit without the e. I don’t Like to swear in front of the children on here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t Like to swear in front of the children on here Right. Shite hides it well….. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 9, 2022 Author Share Posted November 9, 2022 @CoastalWx What is the TNH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: @CoastalWx What is the TNH? https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh.shtml 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 9, 2022 Author Share Posted November 9, 2022 17 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh.shtml Thanks, bro....basically +TNH= -EPO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 9, 2022 Author Share Posted November 9, 2022 Sorry for being lazy in this thread of late, but really up against it w respect to time w balancing work and pumping this publication out before Friday, so really appreciate the answers to random questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thanks, bro....basically +TNH= -EPO. Too many indices lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 I prefer +TNA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Too many indices lol. "Too many indices, not enough mics" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 9, 2022 Author Share Posted November 9, 2022 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I prefer +TNA. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 14 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Another shite worrisome winter coming for entire 6 state region. When will we break out of this ? based on what, exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: based on what, exactly? Beer 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 16 hours ago, dryslot said: 2010-11, Was well above normal winter in NNE. Because we consistently had modest storms while others nearby got pounded, snowfall was almost exactly on the average thru March 31. Then the 15" April Fools joke kicked the total to 100". A fine winter but with lots of "what could've beens". (Though tiny in that respect compared to 12-13 and especially 14-15.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 1 minute ago, tamarack said: Because we consistently had modest storms while others nearby got pounded, snowfall was almost exactly on the average thru March 31. Then the 15" April Fools joke kicked the total to 100". A fine winter but with lots of "what could've beens". (Though tiny in that respect compared to 12-13 and especially 14-15.) I was on the 100"+ side albeit at 101" that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: I was on the 100"+ side albeit at 101" that year. yup, 1.1" more than here. That was the first season for the Snow Table, and over its 11 season LEW has done a lot better compared to climo than here. Same goes for Lava Rock. I'm waiting for climo to reassert itself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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