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Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture


40/70 Benchmark
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21 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks, man.

It became clear to me during my IOD research back in August.

Using the Indian Ocean as a Predictor of ENSO | Eastern Mass Weather

Its probably not a big deal, but it maybe related to why this event became a bit more east-based, as well. The fact that it was so stagnant really helped to facilitate the development of the negative subsurface anomalies in the western end of ENSO. This was bordering on Modoki until August...I began get a bit more optimistic for winter later in the summer and into the fall due to this...pending results of my sensible analog recalibration.

So we’re hopping on the Steve and Ray winter train while letting the LC train pass by empty, huh…

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The only ones I really use, are for the EPS...so that is only for the next 2 weeks. It does split just over a week from now, and remains sort of elongated towards the end....so I would say it is feeling some disruption. But, it can easily congeal at some point too. I don't know what December entails...but it's good to see it gets disturbed. 

 

 

image.png.ef57fd854d2f8699375c8717f36b6947.png

 

image.png.20ba6883378c01db88b3f5e7e7d9bbd3.png

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The only ones I really use, are for the EPS...so that is only for the next 2 weeks. It does split just over a week from now, and remains sort of elongated towards the end....so I would say it is feeling some disruption. But, it can easily congeal at some point too. I don't know what December entails...but it's good to see it gets disturbed. 

 

 

image.png.ef57fd854d2f8699375c8717f36b6947.png

 

image.png.20ba6883378c01db88b3f5e7e7d9bbd3.png

Thanks, man.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Isn't 10mb better?

50mb is closer to the troposphere, and would likely have a better chance of propagating down to the troposphere. I can post 10mb too.  I never look at 10mb to be honest because you can have the moon collapse and blow up there and nothing propagates down lol. 

 

image.png.494747ad507277123c7b84e889b93121.png

 

image.png.3703036fe3ee354e9b84cc18ed393288.png

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

50mb is closer to the troposphere, and would likely have a better chance of propagating down to the troposphere. I can post 10mb too.  I never look at 10mb to be honest because you can have the moon collapse and blow up there and nothing propagates down lol. 

 

image.png.494747ad507277123c7b84e889b93121.png

 

image.png.3703036fe3ee354e9b84cc18ed393288.png

That's right...I remembered that after I posted. Still shaking cob webs.

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Relationship is kind of weak, but all else equal, you like to see the warm anomalies in the stratosphere in the eastern portion (toward Bering) of Siberia in mid/late November. 50mb charts show that which is good. That has historically meant a better chance for blocking. But like some of these other stratospheric and blocking relationships, I wouldn't weight them too much.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Relationship is kind of weak, but all else equal, you like to see the warm anomalies in the stratosphere in the eastern portion (toward Bering) of Siberia in mid/late November. 50mb charts show that which is good. That has historically meant a better chance for blocking. But like some of these other stratospheric and blocking relationships, I wouldn't weight them too much.

November 2000 had a Canadian warming event, which led to a displacement in December and split in Feb.

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17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Why the confusion Ray? Looks like you’re more optimistic about the season than you initially were, is all I’m saying. 

The letting LC pass by part....he is on board for a good season. Are you saying I jumped on board later? I'm not offended or anything...just honestly confused.

Anyway, its a fluid process until I send everything...my ENSO stuff has been consistent since mid summer, but the issue was the new sensible weather stuff I am trying wasn't aligning. I used to just to ENSO.

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39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The letting LC pass by part....he is on board for a good season. Are you saying I jumped on board later? I'm not offended or anything...just honestly confused.

Anyway, its a fluid process until I send everything...my ENSO stuff has been consistent since mid summer, but the issue was the new sensible weather stuff I am trying wasn't aligning. I used to just to ENSO.

I thought LC was going warm with BN snows, my bad.

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

50mb is closer to the troposphere, and would likely have a better chance of propagating down to the troposphere. I can post 10mb too.  I never look at 10mb to be honest because you can have the moon collapse and blow up there and nothing propagates down lol. 

 

image.png.494747ad507277123c7b84e889b93121.png

 

image.png.3703036fe3ee354e9b84cc18ed393288.png

Might be my favorite quote ever about using 10 mb level... Lol... Actually put a smile on my face...

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On 11/3/2022 at 8:42 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it's not really feasible to go wire to wire. 1995-1996 did have all 4 big snow months above normal (Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar) but we obviously had that brutal thaw in 2nd half of January. 

2000-2001 over the interior did as well. That year is prob the closest since it didn't have any brutal thaws after the 12/17/00 cutter (there were two small snow events in the week after that too which saved white Xmas)

Only other one off the top of my head was maybe 1960-1961.

'04-'05, '92-'93, and '93-'94 were all close but no cigar. They all had one month that was more like average instead of above avg.

 

'07-'08 prob pulled it off in NNE.

 

You missed 02 03

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I think this year's piece is pretty good...I've really been able to dig beyond the ENSO structural variations, while achieving forecast symmetry via consensus from a variety of different angles. I was able to dig into the polar domain a bit more this season, which should hopefully improve what has been a dreadful area for me. I have managed to work around that with respect to la nina, but misdiagnosing the polar domain absolutely killed me in the el nino seasons of 2018-2019 and 2019-2020.

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