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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


40/70 Benchmark
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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's certainly possible. That 10-20ish window is it so somewhere in that timeframe we hope for something.

 

Although EPS tries for a little +PNA and ridging poking into Greenland towards the end. 

Well if there’s a way for that window to pork us…it’ll find it for sure. That’s what this winter does well. So  I’m ready for it(the cutter) to happen, and I have zero expectations. 

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9 minutes ago, George001 said:

Eps looks decent, geps is also trying for a Miller B. That’s what the models look to be hinting at right now, a low initially cuts to our west, but then redevelops and bombs out just a little too late. Get that redevelopment to happen a little earlier and all of a sudden we have a big nor’easter.

Did you give up using the term 'blizzard' for lent?

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11 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Did you give up using the term 'blizzard' for lent?

I need to see a few more favorable changes  in the pattern before I start talking blizzards, right now the western ridge axis is west of ideal, so an inland runner is possible. However there are signs of weak North Atlantic blocking starting to form, which could turn it into a Miller B. If we see the blocking strengthen on the guidance, then I’m all in. 

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20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well if there’s a way for that window to pork us…it’ll find it for sure. That’s what this winter does well. So  I’m ready for it(the cutter) to happen, and I have zero expectations. 

LOL You were so innocent and unassuming last fall into December....always ready with the white pompoms. My, how you have come of age this season lol

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

LOL You were so innocent and unassuming last fall into December....always ready with the white pompoms. My, how you have come of age this season lol

Lol, that’s what repeated porking does to a guy.  Yes, I was optimistic early on, but the tenor became set and it’s continued on up until this current day.  I’m ready for the final porking around the 12-20 or so. :lol:

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50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ensembles look like a cutter during that 10-12 period.

Yeah I don't really like that storm very much for winter wx...could change, but it seems too early in the pattern shift for a good snow event. Our window of potential is more between 3/12-3/20 IMHO....prob centered in the 3/13-3/17 time range.

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4 minutes ago, Hazey said:

That sneaky s/w that gave dryslot the surprise totals is crushing us here in Halifax. Very heavy snow falling. Easily 6” down and more to come. Big time overperformer. Forecast was for 4” lol. f09c47743e0332075a971a312b406829.jpg


#NovaScotiaStrong

I was hoping you'd pop in, looks like you were getting it good, what do you think for a final 8-10?

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1 hour ago, Hazey said:

That sneaky s/w that gave dryslot the surprise totals is crushing us here in Halifax. Very heavy snow falling. Easily 6” down and more to come. Big time overperformer. Forecast was for 4” lol. f09c47743e0332075a971a312b406829.jpg


#NovaScotiaStrong

Little critter that bites? 

although that looks a little more than innocuous on satellite -  ..actually, it looks like it's in a RI

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4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

If you can shift that entire pattern 500 miles east, could be interesting. 

This far out that’s doable, also you if the low deepens as much as the Euro says it will we don’t need a perfect track. The storm will create its own cold air, and the rain snow line would crash south. It can snow east of the low.

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I don't have and don't know is there is meteorological evidence to back this up, but I would have to say March is the toughest month to forecast for the medium-to-long range (I suppose you can throw one of the fall months into this). But with March you are fighting the seasonal transition, probably starting to see wavelengths shorten, you're introducing the potential for a greater degree of convection, and obviously big changes are occurring within the higher latitudes relating to increased sunlight, jet stream winds, and changes to both the TPV and SPV. 

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  • 40/70 Benchmark changed the title to March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly
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