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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly

40/70 Benchmark

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Just now, ineedsnow said:

Monday night starting to look interesting again.. Euro with a nice snowstorm at the end of the week.. Hope one works out 

Monday is toast for us....enjoy the rain. NNE could cash in on that.

After Monday we could get something....some guidance trying for 3/12 but I feel like more toward 3/14-3/15 period is a better setup.

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3 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

There’s our storm window around day 9-11. EPO rising but still negative to neutral , PNA rising to slightly positive, NAO going slightly negative.





Been speaking to the relay of the -EPO --> +PNA mode switch my self.  Its being prevalent in the 00z is 3 .. 4 days of consistency there. 

It may be the last hurrah of the winter, for a larger synoptic/systemically rooted correction event ... Still looks like the "modeled intents" - for lack of better words - of the greater circulation prognostic heading out two weeks.. .etc. 

Doesn't mean it's completely over ... Winter storm enthusiasts start looking for 'bowling balls'    This phase "spring puberty acne" happens when the hemispheric gradients tend to abruptly relax ( relatively ...), effectively stranding what's in the flow at those times.  It's really more like a range of time where that type of stranding risk is elevated - 2 weeks or so perhaps.  

It's early ...but so far, the best candidate so far is the bigger dawg event that's in both EPS/GEFS and GEPs... around D10.  

It is unfortunately behaving ( for the time being ...), more like an EPO cutter. Which is interesting, because ... the EPO is rising at that time, after the negative sequencing.  

EPO cutters typically take place as, or nearing ...max -EPO on the front side of the gestation - whereby the flow downstream troughs over the Great Basin, and the wave transmittance orients the flow up the EC ..etc.  There is caveat to this model, however... The flow in the eastern Pac can sometimes tunnel completely under the EPO ...cutting it off.. That does change the map a little for what/how things evolve over the mid latitude continent ...

So something about that 240 morass is a little off.  The flow is fast, and with that cold height loading into Canada, it's going to be really hauling ass.  I would not be surprised if the R-wave total lenghts end up stretched a bit longer than climo with that whole ordeal.  I think something being in that window is high confidence.  What that is ...?  I would not trust that giant busted ravioli mess ...  The period of time in question has an H.A. correction look to it, either way.

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1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

I always have trouble posting pics here, only been able to a couple time. It always tells me the file is too large...and I have NO idea how to fix it

If you are taking pics on your phone, get an app like Lit Photo (etc) that can shrink the image size.  Probably the pics are natively way bigger than you need them to be when posting anyway.  Shrink them to like 800x600 or whatever and the filesize drops dramatically.  Takes 10 seconds or less, literally.

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4 minutes ago, MRVexpat said:

Nope. And I saw the banner message but still getting 404 and 502 errors. Suppose I'll just focus on work instead...

I'm not getting them but i'm a subscriber, (3 March 2022) Web service has been restored. Plus features will be publicly available until we can confirm user logins are working later today.

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7 minutes ago, 512high said:

Dam You! So lucky!

These clippers blow up just in time for here over the years, Its been quite a few years since we've had them but in the past we ended up with some decent over performers like this one did, But i was totally caught off guard as well as NWS and three other Mets from NBC,CBS and ABC that i emailed this morning ha ha.

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  • 40/70 Benchmark changed the title to March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly
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