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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)


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2 hours ago, high risk said:

Several recent lightning strikes over Howard/PG Counties, well removed from he precip.

That was wild. I was about to take my daughter to swim practice and it actually got cancelled because of the lightning and thunder. Storm was barely in the same state as me.

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This was from an hour ago... don't see this everyday

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
637 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Madison County in northwestern Virginia...
  Southwestern Orange County in central Virginia...

* Until 715 PM EDT.

* At 634 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Orange,
  moving southeast at 15 mph.

  THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR Somerset, Orange and Montpellier
Station.

  HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...
  Orange, Gordonsville, Thornhill, Madison Mills, Montford, Lahore,
  Old Somerset, Montpelier Station, Madison Run and Somerset.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3814 7801 3814 7805 3815 7809 3815 7810
      3814 7812 3814 7816 3813 7818 3818 7829
      3831 7821 3820 7786 3812 7796 3812 7798
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 301DEG 13KT 3821 7818

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH
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6 minutes ago, yoda said:

Not sure I am following this twitter exchange... can I get some help?

 

I think they are saying a couple things...

  1. Radar dead zone. Tough to see what's going on. This for me isn't a reason not to issue a warning when a storm looks this threatening.
  2. I think they are referring to sidelobe contamination when they are talking about lack of a couplet on DBZ. Not sure I agree with that qualm either, storm has repeatedly shown a hook and again, the radar isn't super reliable. And we've got photos of wall clouds on Twitter...

The SBCIN stuff is out of my comfort zone to even begin to talk about but this is what it means apparently:

SBLI (Surface Based Lifted Index & Convective Inhibition) is the Lifted Index at 500-mb, based on the surface parcel, and the convective inhibition for the same parcel. These fields are meant to identify areas of surface-based CAPE and minimal convective inhibition, which suggests some threat for surface-based thunderstorms.

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10 minutes ago, yoda said:

Not sure I am following this twitter exchange... can I get some help?

Have seen Cappucci say negative things about NWS, NWS website etc like 3-5 times in the past week or two. I have mixed feelings about Cappucci as a whole. He seems like an enthusiastic guy in the field these days, though. 

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29 minutes ago, yoda said:

Not sure I am following this twitter exchange... can I get some help?

IMO, Cappucci just seems to stir the pot when it comes to NWS warning operations. He's gone on about the size of storm based warnings, the size of watch boxes, the color of mesoscale discussion areas on SPC website and other seemingly trivial things. I totally understand that you can question things, but he seems to give back handed compliments pretty regularly.

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28 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

IMO, Cappucci just seems to stir the pot when it comes to NWS warning operations. He's gone on about the size of storm based warnings, the size of watch boxes, the color of mesoscale discussion areas on SPC website and other seemingly trivial things. I totally understand that you can question things, but he seems to give back handed compliments pretty regularly.

He also has a very loyal group of followers that will defend him to no end. I definitely recall Cappucci blocking up a turn lane of a road near Annapolis during a tornado. It's one thing to be enthusiastic...but he also doesn't seem to have the ability to often admit when he's wrong. I think his enthusiasm is great, and I'm genuinely happy for him for the things he's accomplished. But he should certainly occasionally take a step back and remember that he's not the authority on weather, and the school he went to doesn't mean he's better than another forecaster/met. He certainly is entitled to opinions...but he also needs to remember that because of his current position, his opinions are read by A LOT of laypeople who will then parrot his ideas back to friends, family, coworkers etc. 

I personally think some of his comments have caused some social media users to have less faith in NWS products and the website. That's not constructive. 

 

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8 minutes ago, yoda said:

That sup has more of a S component on it now compared to an hour ago

 

20 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said:

Central PA supercell with the tornado warning has a BWER

Just finished washing a fire truck in New Windsor and it has the deep summer soup feel. While we're "stable" here, i wonder if that cluster near Harrisburg develops a cold pool or something and can overcome whatever cap we have here. The CAMS today definitely have been wonky so may the Baltimore area gets to bust in favor of some relief tonight?

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

IMO, Cappucci just seems to stir the pot when it comes to NWS warning operations. He's gone on about the size of storm based warnings, the size of watch boxes, the color of mesoscale discussion areas on SPC website and other seemingly trivial things. I totally understand that you can question things, but he seems to give back handed compliments pretty regularly.

Matt is about one thing…himself. Right or wrong, he’s playing the game to make a name for himself. 

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IMO, Cappucci just seems to stir the pot when it comes to NWS warning operations. He's gone on about the size of storm based warnings, the size of watch boxes, the color of mesoscale discussion areas on SPC website and other seemingly trivial things. I totally understand that you can question things, but he seems to give back handed compliments pretty regularly.

The only NWS critique I’d really strongly agree with is the over-warning of thunderstorms locally. Every other storm I get here is “severe,” but maybe one storm a year meets that criteria. I care about the weather and even I no longer take those warnings seriously.
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8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


The only NWS critique I’d really strongly agree with is the over-warning of thunderstorms locally. Every other storm I get here is “severe,” but maybe one storm a year meets that criteria. I care about the weather and even I no longer take those warnings seriously.

Certainly agree in terms of laypeople. Lucky for us we are "experienced" weather weenies and know how to read a radar map (or at least semi understand). I've sent pictures of a radar map to friends with no caption and they just say things like "I don't even know what the colors mean" - I'm always shocked...like in 30 years you've never seen a TV weather map of radar? 

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42 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


The only NWS critique I’d really strongly agree with is the over-warning of thunderstorms locally. Every other storm I get here is “severe,” but maybe one storm a year meets that criteria. I care about the weather and even I no longer take those warnings seriously.

The big problem here is that we have a ton of densely-treed neighborhoods.  It doesn't even take a severe-level storm to cause damage, especially to old and dying trees.  So, we may scoff at some of the warnings, but I bet a lot of them are verifying via damage reports.

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1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:


The only NWS critique I’d really strongly agree with is the over-warning of thunderstorms locally. Every other storm I get here is “severe,” but maybe one storm a year meets that criteria. I care about the weather and even I no longer take those warnings seriously.

We see the same thing here as well and have experienced 'meh' only to hear the box call siren at our local VFC and find that a tree has come down into someone's home not 1km from ours!  So isolated but if you're under it can be hell. ;)

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still some big storms today down south

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
544 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

VAC177-172230-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0164.000000T0000Z-220617T2230Z/
Spotsylvania VA-
544 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY...

At 544 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles north of
Bumpass, or 12 miles east of Mineral, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Partlow, Gatewood and Brokenburg.
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
601 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southern St. Marys County in southern Maryland...

* Until 645 PM EDT.

* At 600 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Saint
  Clements Bay, moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...A wind gust to 67 mph was measured at Cobb Point Buoy.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Lexington Park, Piney Point, Tall Timbers, Saint Inigoes Creek,
  Saint Marys City, Saint George Island, Saint Clements Bay, Saint
  Marys River, White Point Beach, California, Abell, Valley Lee,
  Scotland, Great Mills, Avenue, Drayden, Saint Inigoes, Park Hall,
  Oakley and Dameron.
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2 hours ago, poolz1 said:

Bro In law caught this beast of a bolt in Fenwick yesterday.  Too bad the neighbor's roof blocks part of the view but a pretty wild shot nonetheless. 

IMG_3622.thumb.jpeg.e9169700026af02f124f2f45c3487d5f.jpeg

 

 

 

 

 

Wooooooowee!!! Heck yeah!! Now I'm guessing the camera makes the bolt look thicker? Or did it actually look like that? Cause' that's a full-on videogame Thunderbolt right there, lol

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The big problem here is that we have a ton of densely-treed neighborhoods.  It doesn't even take a severe-level storm to cause damage, especially to old and dying trees.  So, we may scoff at some of the warnings, but I bet a lot of them are verifying via damage reports.

I agree in principle - what I guess I’d then suggest is that Severe Thunderstorm Warnings scale like Winter Storm Warnings/Advisory’s based on the relative severity/hazards posed. If a 40mph storm is severe and dangerous in this area, cool, just don’t lie in the warning text. I suppose laypeople hardly read the text though anyway.
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