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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)


Kmlwx
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3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

 

Well - here we go into the clearing. It's not quite to me in Colesville yet...but it's right on the doorstep. Should be solid for a decent amount of clearing. Temperatures elevated pretty quick in the clearing (seeing 76 degrees near Culpeper). Probably going to be a "garden variety+" severe day here. Perhaps a bit more widespread and intense than our true "meh" days but also not any sort of higher end/memorable event. 

          That's a very reasonable take.     I will note that the longer we have to wait for any threat to materialize, the better the shear gets.

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

          That's a very reasonable take.     I will note that the longer we have to wait for any threat to materialize, the better the shear gets.

I think there's two "issues" to watch. 

1) As we've been hearing/saying all morning - the crapvection's impact on instability. I'm cautiously optimistic that the clearing is arriving soon enough that this may be mostly a negated issue. 

2) Whether there's meaningful storms for us at all. It seems some of the guidance blows stuff up right along I-95 or east - so it's possible even if there is good convection that some of us get missed (isn't that always the case! lol)

Guessing we'll still get a watch at some point, though. 

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

And it was for 80% chance of watch. They are probably waiting longer to see convective trends/initiation. 

thanks. wouldn't surprise me to see it issued for places east to fill in the gap between the watches to our north and south

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Mesoscale Discussion 0786
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Areas affected...Northeast VA...Much of MD...Delmarva Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 161823Z - 162030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage and intensity is
anticipated this afternoon. The strongest of these storms will be
capable of damaging wind gusts and hail, and a watch will likely be
needed to cover these hazards.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown decreasing cloud
cover over the past hour or so, as the preceding area of showers and
thunderstorms moves quickly northeastward. Temperatures are warming
quickly as skies clear, with recent observations showing upper
70s/low 80s in northern VA. This warming trend is expected to
continue, with the air mass further destabilizing as it does. Ascent
attendant to the approaching shortwave coupled with broad low-level
confluence along and ahead of the cold front should result in
thunderstorm development as convective inhibition decreases this
afternoon. 

Combination of moderate buoyancy and shear across the region will
support robust updrafts and likely a few supercells if the mode can
remain discrete. Steep low-level lapse rates favor strong outflow
with any robust storms. Hail also appears likely given the amount of
buoyancy expected in place. Observational trends will be monitored
closely and a watch will likely be needed across portions of the
region this afternoon.

..Mosier/Grams.. 05/16/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

 

 

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Storms are starting to intensify as they move east of I-81, and they're about to move into an environment with moderate CAPE values and 50 kt of deep layer shear.     It likely won't be a higher-end or widespread SVR event, but there will definitely be severe reports in northern VA and central and eastern MD later this afternoon.

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

Storms are starting to intensify as they move east of I-81, and they're about to move into an environment with moderate CAPE values and 50 kt of deep layer shear.     It likely won't be a higher-end or widespread SVR event, but there will definitely be severe reports in northern VA and central and eastern MD later this afternoon.

The one good thing we still have going for us is that we have a decent bit of shear and low level lapse rates. My temp has rebounded to 75 degrees so it's possible we could see a few beefy cells, but yea this morning's activity really capped any potential for a high end event in these parts.

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