dryslot Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Hot garbage at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Euro looks much better at h5 but surface still sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 9, 2022 Author Share Posted February 9, 2022 euro is better than 0z at h5. Northern stream is digging more and less energy being held back out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Euro looks much better at h5 but surface still sucks We don’t live at h5 oddly enough 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 That was significantly better than 00z aloft...you want that northern stream dropping in otherwise it's a moderate event as the ceiling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Surface results are the same or slightly worse, It sucked. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 I think its perfectly sensible to consider the H5 look at this lead time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Better aloft but end results were not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Hopefully ray didn’t start his blog yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Surface results are the same or slightly worse, It sucked. I couldn't care less at this point...the 00z run upside was a moderate event....this is way better even if it doesn't satisfy the queens at Day 4-5. It was a pretty big move for the euro. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 9, 2022 Author Share Posted February 9, 2022 I’m straight up ignoring the surface this was a good run. Not a hit but a step in the right direction. Need to get that third piece to phase in though if we want something really big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I couldn't care less at this point...the 00z run upside was a moderate event....this is way better even if it doesn't satisfy the queens at Day 4-5. It was a pretty big move for the euro. H5 yes it was, I will agree on that it was better then 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I couldn't care less at this point...the 00z run upside was a moderate event....this is way better even if it doesn't satisfy the queens at Day 4-5. It was a pretty big move for the euro. 100% agree. I was thinking the same. Who really cares if the surface didn’t respond just yet…we are still a moderate ways out, and the 500mb was significantly improved. I think that’s all you can ask for at this lead, especially for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: We don’t live at h5 oddly enough But at this lead that’s where we want to see the improvements. You should know this… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: We don’t live at h5 oddly enough speak for yourself 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 If H5 improves again at the same magnitude that 12z did, you will definitely see the surface respond strongly....this run was getting close. If we were 60-72 hours out, I'd probably say this wasn't enough, but we have another couple cycles to get this into hit territory. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Solid moves by the 12z suite. Details to be worked out. We track! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 29 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It may have resulted flat at the surface but the 'fun' of that was directed for Will... we've been discussing the N/stream sensitivity to this whole thing, so the stepped improvement in that regard was what we were looking for - 'boom' was in deference to that. 'boom, there we go..' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 It was a big move by the Euro, but too little, too late. Can't expect big moves like this again. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: It was a big move by the Euro, but too little, too late. Can't expect big moves like this again. Agreed... and I've seen the Euro and other models do this in the past...where they begin capitulating on a given run cycle, but not full in... it's like they 'hedge' in a way. If that mid/U/A comes in nudged even more amplified on the 18 ...0z, it'll probably break the dam and will go too far ( if anything...) the other way. Or not...but that type of antic is not uncommon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: It was a big move by the Euro, but too little, too late. Can't expect big moves like this again. Yes you can 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 30 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Hopefully ray didn’t start his blog yet I waited, but I think I brief overview is still warranted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 15 minutes ago, Hazey said: Solid moves by the 12z suite. Details to be worked out. We track! Yea, like whether its snowy or sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Agreed... and I've seen the Euro and other models do this in the past...where they begin capitulating on a given run cycle, but not full in... it's like they 'hedge' in a way. If that mid/U/A comes in nudged even more amplified on the 18 ...0z, it'll probably break the dam and will go too far ( if anything...) the other way. Or not...but that type of antic is not uncommon. Yeah I'm not sure how many people realize how quickly this can go from fish food to a storm sitting over SE MA when playing with the fire on the northern stream like that. It's what we want for a high-end event, but there's a critical point where this comes way west if you phase that in early enough. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'm not sure how many people realize how quickly this can go from fish food to a storm sitting over SE MA when playing with the fire on the northern stream like that. It's what we want for a high-end event, but there's a critical point where this comes way west if you phase that in early enough. I would honestly take 8" of paste followed by a period of IP/rain, over a foot of subby sauce like the blizzard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'm not sure how many people realize how quickly this can go from fish food to a storm sitting over SE MA when playing with the fire on the northern stream like that. It's what we want for a high-end event, but there's a critical point where this comes way west if you phase that in early enough. I was shocked to see Dryslot so meh, that was a sizeable move. All I needed to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I was shocked to see Dryslot so meh, that was a sizeable move. All I needed to see. Maybe was run over by a sled? 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I was shocked to see Dryslot so meh, that was a sizeable move. All I needed to see. Wow...just looked. Everything is much more consolidated at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Maybe 18z GFS shows the big hit, followed by the Euro at 0z...I think that's how it progressed when the 1/29 blizzard was starting to come back in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Now @Zeus is in the house.....its real. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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