Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[NotSureWeather]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

I initially forecasted 16-20 inches of snow in the Boston area once I saw the Navy jump on board a couple of days ago. Is it possible that I was too…. conservative with my forecast? My forecasts bust all the time, but usually the other way.

Great problem to have though.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Seems we can’t buy two consecutive runs with positive moves 

What positive moves does sema exactly need? You’ve maxed out the potential for 4days now with crush after crush. Are you looking for George like amounts?

[dryslot]

Those seeing eyes are looking out for us though on the Nam

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Except this one isn’t at all

I wish Ryan would just put you on TV as his guru during big systems 

[Henry's Weather]

8 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I'm confluent in three languages

On a roll like cottonelle today

[radarman]

even if it's just a hair worse aloft, I like the earlier blossoming of the precip shield back this way. 

[dryslot]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What positive moves does sema exactly need? You’ve maxed out the potential for 4days now with crush after crush. Are you looking for George like amounts?

He's not willing to part with a few inches.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What positive moves does sema exactly need? You’ve maxed out the potential for 4days now with crush after crush. Are you looking for George like amounts?

He wants Sierra Nevada amounts. It's like Jamie Dimon complaining he's not as rich as Jeff Bezos.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What positive moves does sema exactly need? You’ve maxed out the potential for 4days now with crush after crush. Are you looking for George like amounts?

It would suck if he only got 18” inches instead of 24”

[STILL N OF PIKE]

That easterly inflow is impressive 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

He's not willing to part with a few inches.

I guess that's what it is but he should follow Bobby and just  his way to 12+++++

[Baroclinic Zone]

I'm you'd need to dig hard to find many differences thus far thru 12z Sat.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Those seeing eyes are looking out for us though on the Nam

Lifeless eyes, black eyes....like a dolls eyes........

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

That easterly inflow is impressive 

There we go, I wish you would just get naked already...I hate when you latch onto some element of concern like a pit bull, and keep tormenting me with it lol

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

I'm you'd need to dig hard to find many differences thus far thru 12z Sat.

Crushed 

[Greg]

I'm out to 42 Hours on the TT.

[OceanStWx]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yikes.

Okay....I didn't know that to be the case this close in.

Here's a visualization from Alicia Bentley, who has done a ton of work with the GFS. 

You can see the GEFS are at least as useful as the op through day 3/4 then it becomes clear the ensembles are better. 

Obviously an ensemble mean high temp may not be particularly good on day 2, but for the upper levels there's skill still.

[HinghamBoss]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

He wants Sierra Nevada amounts. It's like Jamie Dimon complaining he's not as rich as Jeff Bezos.

He wants to be like Mac Jones against the Jags and go for the 50 burger.

[ORH_wxman]

This is still going to be really impressive...H5 is actually curling to the west a little more than 12z despite some of the confluence up north probably make this turn a little wider.

[dryslot]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I guess that's what it is but he should follow Bobby and just  his way to a 12+++++

That area has the least amount of worries and he still worries............lol

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There we go, I wish you would just get naked already...I hate you latch onto some element of concern like pit bull and keep tormenting me with it lol

I admit I do that Ray , but it’s just me and I can’t help it lol and it wouldn’t be different if you weren’t on Board. But well said 

[snowman21]

Winter storm watch up for Litchfield County. Poor Hartford County the only one in the state without a watch now.

[OrangeCTWX]

No dual low yet through 45 hrs. 

[Henry's Weather]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

I initially forecasted 16-20 inches of snow in the Boston area once I saw the Navy jump on board a couple of days ago. Is it possible that I was too…. conservative with my forecast? My forecasts bust all the time, but usually the other way.

One thing I really like about you is that you don't take yourself so seriously! You're a good addition to the forum

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I wish Ryan would just put you on TV as his guru during big systems 

There’s way too much over analyzing with this . Looking  for any tiny thing. And when you do that it affects forecasts 

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I hope I didn't overreact to the OP EURO...usually when there is any doubt about capture, I like to err less and late....I didn't realize that the EPS would be so split and the still had so much value at this range.

I'd maybe start getting concerned 12z tomorrow if we're continuing to see some of what we're seeing. There's just so much time (even though it doesn't feel like it) really. Hopefully the 0z balloon launches will provide significant value...we can at least see how models are initializing heights in the West. This doesn't help with everything but gives a small idea. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

This is still going to be really impressive...H5 is actually curling to the west a little more than 12z despite some of the confluence up north probably make this turn a little wider.

Yup.  Capture at 15z Saturday.

[JC-CT]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Here's a visualization from Alicia Bentley, who has done a ton of work with the GFS. 

You can see the GEFS are at least as useful as the op through day 3/4 then it becomes clear the ensembles are better. 

Obviously an ensemble mean high temp may not be particularly good on day 2, but for the upper levels there's skill still.

I don't doubt this or anything, but intuitively, I would think that average 500hpa height anomaly might not be representative of how well each model / ensemble handles east coast cyclogenesis, let alone bombogenesis.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I'm you'd need to dig hard to find many differences thus far thru 12z Sat.

Whatever confluence there was, It made up the ground.

[CoastalWx]

Loses the dual low quicker.