Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

This one's a goner guys. I don't want to say that because I really wanted this storm. I'm a full-out weather geek, weather weenie oh, whatever you want to call me I am. Even my spouse of my eight year old left how much I love the snow. But I'm giving up on this one. It's not coming back. I don't think anything's ever come back after where is gone to now.

 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

1 minute ago, mattm4242 said:

CBS and WCVB

 

I don't understand why they use such big snow maps.

Literally no one in CT receives WCVB or WBZ over the air.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, mattm4242 said:

CBS and WCVB

 

The work to scrub these from the internet will begin shortly 

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS improved as well. pretty notable changes at 250 and 500 

heights are higher everywhere downstream as well. the TPV issue isn't there

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I bet there is absolutely thought of pulling those maps off air after those 18z runs 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Damn nice storm on the GFS.  Bombs out bigly.    Just too far east 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS improved as well. pretty notable changes at 250 and 500 

heights are higher everywhere downstream as well. the TPV issue isn't there

Yeah that was actually a good trend. Though they were so bad at 12z I was wondering if they could trend any worse. 

[mob1]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

This one's a goner guys. I don't want to say that because I really wanted this storm. I'm a full-out weather geek, weather weenie oh, whatever you want to call me I am. Even my spouse of my eight year old left how much I love the snow. But I'm giving up on this one. It's not coming back. I don't think anything's ever come back after where is gone to now.

Check out the 2010 Boxing Day blizzard at this timeframe (72 hours or so). Not saying that it'll happen, just that it has and it can. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

At this point I just want someone in New England to get hammered. 

Kevin on double IPA's?

[TalcottWx]

5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

This one's a goner guys. I don't want to say that because I really wanted this storm. I'm a full-out weather geek, weather weenie oh, whatever you want to call me I am. Even my spouse of my eight year old left how much I love the snow. But I'm giving up on this one. It's not coming back. I don't think anything's ever come back after where is gone to now.

"... All options remain on the table as it`s still 3 days away
and we can`t rule out a shift back to the west or even a further
eastward shift with less snow. Further adjustments are very likely
until models can better resolve this complex pattern." 

[JC-CT]

Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

"we can`t rule out a further eastward shift with less snow."

 

[TalcottWx]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I bet there is absolutely thought of pulling those maps off air after those 18z runs 

There is absolutely not. I just spoke to two chief on air Mets directly. They are stressing patience, just like every single other met on this board. 

[Snowcrazed71]

7 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Why does your eight year old have a spouse

Haha. Thats what I get for voice texting. 

Fixed

[TalcottWx]

Just now, JC-CT said:

 

That was good lol 

[DavisStraight]

4 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Check out the 2010 Boxing Day blizzard at this timeframe (72 hours or so). Not saying that it'll happen, just that it has and it can. 

Quite a few storms go back and forth between models runs especially 3-4 days before the storm. This one has plenty of time to trend west. Doesn't really have to trend that far to get a whole lot more of us into the game.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Does WPC still have a model diagnostic text discussion?

[TheBudMan]

2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

There is absolutely not. I just spoke to two chief on air Mets directly. They are stressing patience, just like every single other met on this board. 

 

Tip - "I spoke to Harv" 

 

Jay - "well, I spoke to TWO meterologists, plus the staff at easternmassweather" 

 

speak to this 

[OceanStWx]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS improved as well. pretty notable changes at 250 and 500 

heights are higher everywhere downstream as well. the TPV issue isn't there

Great case for why ensembles are important. Despite the op GFS sending weenies swan diving off the Tobin, the ensemble actually improved in the mean, and likely brought more members in that direction vs a few outliers skewing things.

[JC-CT]

6 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Check out the 2010 Boxing Day blizzard at this timeframe (72 hours or so). Not saying that it'll happen, just that it has and it can. 

2010 though

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, TheBudMan said:

 

Tip - "I spoke to Harv" 

 

Jay - "well, I spoke to TWO meterologists, plus the staff at easternmassweather" 

 

speak to this 

Haha I didn't even see tip saying that 

[CT Rain]

Woof. That need A LOT of work.

[JC-CT]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Woof. That need A LOT of work.

okay I'm not an idiot for thinking "the GEFS kinda suck and they've also been kinda consistent"

[MJOatleast7]

One bit of solace...next week's rainer to Quebec City now shows ice just north of LCI. A lot colder.

[JC-CT]

remember that "burp" gefs run? feels like it was only yesterday

[Great Snow 1717]

23 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

The people on the edge of the Tobin after every model run are just brutal 

It's what happens when a hobby turns into an obsession...

[JC-CT]

Just now, MJOatleast7 said:

One bit of solace...next week's rainer to Quebec City now shows ice just north of LCI. A lot colder.

that's not solace.

[mob1]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

2010 though

January 2016 as well (for some), but from an entirely different angle. Point is that significant changes can still happen with this lead time, though it obviously doesn't mean it will or that it won't get worse. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

There is absolutely not. I just spoke to two chief on air Mets directly. They are stressing patience, just like every single other met on this board. 

 

3 minutes ago, TheBudMan said:

 

Tip - "I spoke to Harv" 

 

Jay - "well, I spoke to TWO meterologists, plus the staff at easternmassweather" 

 

speak to this 

 

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Woof. That need A LOT of work.

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Woof. That need A LOT of work.

Probabilities are equally horrific. 

[Digityman]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Great case for why ensembles are important. Despite the op GFS sending weenies swan diving off the Tobin, the ensemble actually improved in the mean, and likely brought more members in that direction vs a few outliers skewing things.

Newb question but are each of those weighted the same?   Is it truly the mean?  For example, lets say you have 10 members total and 8 of the 10 are on top of each other but you have 2 members 100 miles east, that can have a decent impact on the model, correct?