Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

Pedestrian for your area.

Still remains to be seen what upslope does after the storm passes. That’s always a stat-padding wildcard. PF somehow getting a foot from a storm 1,000 miles away will not be a shock to anyone.

I will also not be surprised to see some of the eastern areas under the bullseye now end up getting stuck between bands whereas the usual suspects further west clean up. That seems to happen frequently even though the models can never seem to sort it out. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea so many destroyed dendrites it didn't matter. We Tempest of yore, up to thy knickers. Watch them sea walls 

Harv had coastal flooding as the only moderate impact, as opposed to everything as being high.

[George001]

17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This. The nothing members. HATE that's it's still on the table.

So there’s a chance that the low just…. Disappears? No way! The euro last night had 2-3 feet in eastern mass (with ratios). Based on what I’ve seen on the models I’m convinced my area is going to get hammered with a monster blizzard. 18+ inches with very strong winds.

[tiger_deF]

I think the upcoming 12z and 18z suites are going to be absolutely crucial to determining whether the storm will be a whiffer except for SNE, or a monster blockbuster storm. We need to stop the East trends, see full phasing continue to be supported, and see more capture for the upper end scenarios to have a shot at play out

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

So there’s a chance that the low just…. Disappears? No way! The euro last night had 2-3 feet in eastern mass (with ratios). Based on what I’ve seen on the models I’m convinced my area is going to get hammered with a monster blizzard. 18+ inches with very strong winds.

Too early to say anything like that.

[Typhoon Tip]

I don't know what's been said over the last 15 pages overnight but for storm enthusiasm, that was not encouraging overnight for me. Short leash now ... if the 12z pulls this crap again, this goes east.

We're 3.5 days out now ... This isn't 1996.  Models are quite less likely to be wrong enough -

 

[OrangeCTWX]

If 12z shows no west trends then honestly I’m gonna start preparing for the fact that the EURO might be juno’ng us central/western CT folk. There have been some promising signs, but it’s really needs to start getting some additional support soon.

[JC-CT]

35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

East camp basically consolidated west 

yet somehow, tick tick tick east every run with the mean qpf

30 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

There are several clusters skewing the mean. 

those clusters are basically the gfs. they aren't skewing anything. They are within the realm of possibility.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't know what's been said over the last 15 pages overnight but for storm enthusiasm, that was not encouraging overnight for me. Short leash now ... if the 12z pulls this crap again, this goes east.

We're 3.5 days out now ... This isn't 1996.  Models are quite less likely to be wrong enough -

 

East as in further east than the GFS?

That would be pretty stunning to me...

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, radarman said:

yeah the coastal peeps can keep it.  Give me PDII, straight down. 

It just creates 2 feet of snow blown down to the grass and a very not uniform snowfall landscape and pack . 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

If 12z shows no west trends then honestly I’m gonna start preparing for the fact that the EURO might be juno’ng us.  There have been some promising signs, but it’s really needs to start getting some additional support soon.

I would agree that I want to see some more guidance look closer to the Euro suite today...otherwise I think it will correct east some.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't know what's been said over the last 15 pages overnight but for storm enthusiasm, that was not encouraging overnight for me. Short leash now ... if the 12z pulls this crap again, this goes east.

We're 3.5 days out now ... This isn't 1996.  Models are quite less likely to be wrong enough -

 

Definitely still a threat for this to be a fairly average scraper that only snows on far eastern areas. That idea is still very much in play. GFS has been toying with it. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

yet somehow, tick tick tick east every run with the mean qpf

those clusters are basically the gfs. they aren't skewing anything. They are within the realm of possibility.

When did you turn into MPM? You are in a prime location .

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It just creates 2 feet of snow blown down to the grass and a very bit uniform snowfall landscape and pack . 

As much as its cool to see the drifting and low vis, it kills the OCD part of me not having high confidence in measurements...I hate the wind for that reason.

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, JC-CT said:

I just want this to be the biggest snowstorm in the history of the universe. Is that too much to ask? Some people (not me) have had a terrible winter...they deserve this much.

LOL for me that was '78 or '13. I'd love to see an 1888 someday but reality is, that's probably a once in 500 year storm

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

LOL for me that was '78 or '13. I'd love to see an 1888 someday but reality is, that's probably a once in 500 year storm

I want one of those anecdotal Pilgrim-era BECSs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

LOL for me that was '78 or '13. I'd love to see an 1888 someday but reality is, that's probably a once in 500 year storm

Well, we're 1/3 of the way home!

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

yet somehow, tick tick tick east every run with the mean qpf

those clusters are basically the gfs. they aren't skewing anything. They are within the realm of possibility.

The clusters way south and east and north and east ?

[EastonSN+]

10 minutes ago, George001 said:

So there’s a chance that the low just…. Disappears? No way! The euro last night had 2-3 feet in eastern mass (with ratios). Based on what I’ve seen on the models I’m convinced my area is going to get hammered with a monster blizzard. 18+ inches with very strong winds.

Not saying it won't be a good storm somewhere, but the ceiling was through the roof for this and just IMO if a small area gets hammered good for them, but it won't be a historic storm like 1888, 1899, 1978, 1996, 2003, 2013.

 

[UnitedWx]

4 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

I want one of those anecdotal Pilgrim-era BECSs.

1717?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Not saying it won't be a good storm somewhere, but the ceiling was through the roof for this and just IMO if a small area gets hammered good for them, but it won't be a historic storm like 1888, 1899, 1978, 1996, 2003, 2013.

 

Especially if Easton isn't within the area that gets hammered-

[dryslot]

Man, Some of you need to calm down before you have a stroke, Its only snow, Reading these last 15 pages or so you would think the storm is on the doorstep.

[Hoth]

57 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm just going on past experience....guidance in general, especially the EURO, tend to stall/capture these systems a bit too aggressively. But full disclosure...its just a hedge on my part. No scientific reason why that can't happen, especially since this is more of a Miller A.

JMHO, capture will tic later and a bit more progreessive.

Take that Euro map and shift it NE 50 miles. Makes little difference for folks in our sub-forum.

[RI Rob]

NAM?

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Man, Some of you need to calm down before you have a stroke, Its only snow, Reading these last 15 pages or so you would think the storm is on the doorstep.

Ya it gets tough reading the angst. It’s still 2.5 days away, and lots of hand wringing in here. Every big one does this…ya gotta roll with the fluctuations on approach. 

[PWMan]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

As much as its cool to see the drifting and low vis, it kills the OCD part of me not having high confidence in measurements...I hate the wind for that reason.

I also hate seeing areas of bare ground. That's one thing I didn't like about being in central NY during college, despite the occasional wind-whipped lake-effect fun; you'd have entire hillsides of exposed grass.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, PWMan said:

I also hate seeing areas of bare ground. That's one thing I didn't like about being in central NY during college, despite the occasional wind-whipped lake-effect fun; you'd have entire hillsides of exposed grass.

It all settles to the same depth eventually anyways. It’s just fun having that. 

[dan11295]

I agree sell the early capture and stall. I would IMHO mostly sell much of a stall in general. There is a history of overdoing stalling at this range. Might slow a bit as it closes off though. The West vs east camp needs to be resolved. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dan11295 said:

I agree sell the early capture and stall. I would IMHO mostly sell much of a stall in general. There is a history of overdoing stalling at this range. Might slow a bit as it closes off though. The West vs east camp needs to be resolved. 

Totally agree.

[JayinRI]

I love reading about weather,  you guys are great, better than TWC. My question is here in rhode island what kind of snow would this be, the wet heavy or light fluffy snow. I am inland, coventry right near 95. Thanks