Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

The GFS would probably pin that near coast-128ish  somewhere verbatim. But obviously depends on track. 

Yea, I think it will end up too far east of me.

[JC-CT]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

We all want that though 

the only one i even remember was 2011

[40/70 Benchmark]

My worry here is that the low level fronto w coastal front is locked near rt 128, and deformation is well west.

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS is too corse to resolve that...it may show it just east of ORH, but it will be too far west

yeah i'm dumb, that's obviously not a coastal front lmao

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I think it will end up too far east of me.

I wouldn't even entertain those aspects yet. Nobody knows where this is going. 

 

except McClane. 

[George001]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would not be confident if I were you. 

What are you thinking about my area, based on what im seeing on the Canadian it looks like my area is right on the line.

[MegaMike]

The ICON has a pretty fine (approximated) resolution for a global model. From https://www.dwd.de/EN/research/weatherforecasting/num_modelling/01_num_weather_prediction_modells/icon_description.html: "the global ICON grid has 2,949,120 triangles, corresponding to an average area of 173 km² and thus to an effective mesh size of about 13 km."

Small scale spatial/temporal errors magnify quite significantly past 84 hours... Look at the NAM as an example. Would you trust it past hour 84?

[JC-CT]

Just now, MegaMike said:

The ICON has a pretty fine (approximated) resolution for a global model. From https://www.dwd.de/EN/research/weatherforecasting/num_modelling/01_num_weather_prediction_modells/icon_description.html: "the global ICON grid has 2,949,120 triangles, corresponding to an average area of 173 km² and thus to an effective mesh size of about 13 km."

Small scale spatial/temporal errors magnify quite significantly past 84 hours... Look at the NAM as an example. Would you trust it past hour 84?

Right...most of the time, throwing out convective feedback is a copout...not with the ICON. It suffers from it every single run.

[Chrisrotary12]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My worry here is that the low level fronto w coastal front is locked near rt 128, and deformation is well west.

Pretty much you and I's concern. We grab 1' of sand while places to our east pick up 2' of paste and places to our west pick up 2' of dendrites.

[CoastalWx]

The snow amount has a limit with this. This is moving steadily, so unless you're in the deformation area W and NW of H7.....I don't see 2'. Looks like a 12-18" limit.

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

What are you thinking about my area, based on what im seeing on the Canadian it looks like my area is right on the line.

Best to wait till at least Thursday....

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Pretty much our concern. You and I grab 1' for sand while places to our east pick up 2' of past and places to our west pick up 2' of dendrites.

Or it tracks up the CT Valley and it rains.... or goes back to wide east and sniff cirrus like yesterday's runs.  Plenty to be concerned about but getting a foot of snow seems like something that wouldn't be a concern at this point .

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would not be confident if I were you. 

I’m most certainly not, but I’m surprised you are. You don’t live in central NH

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

What are you thinking about my area, based on what im seeing on the Canadian it looks like my area is right on the line.

Rain...or 60-80" possible there. 

[ROOSTA]

ATT

Early prediction: O/U 100 pages? 
I'd go over. 
Which model is least wrong, EURO or GFS?
EURO has been fluctuating lately. Go GFS
Locked: I'll get no snow LOL 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Pretty much you and I's concern. We grab 1' of sand while places to our east pick up 2' of paste and places to our west pick up 2' of dendrites.

Happens to me more often than not...we average what we do bc we usually get scraps from each extreme, but seldom jackpot.

[weathafella]

No 12z cmc today it seems.  Needed day off after fukking up 90% of the coastals for 5 years?

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm strongly suspecting this is evolving into total Megalopolis concern now that I'm seeing the 'nuances' of the last 3 cycles of the GEFs mean/spread products, and how they are cyclonically improving their circumvallate over the lower/interior M/A region... As of 12z, there are members if 978 mb abeam of the VA Cape, close enough to the coast ( then considering/knowing the ongoing jet coupling aloft at that time  ~ 114 hrs) to assume there is an explosive expansion of primitive CCB head snow over ROA-DCA ... destined to PHL-NYC-HFD-BOS-CON-PWM.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if the EPS didn't give off the same tenor -

[yoda]

Just now, weathafella said:

No 12z cmc today it seems.  Needed day off after fukking up 90% of the coastals for 5 years?

its out on the old school meteocentre site... slowly but its coming

https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=na&mod=cmc_gdps

 

[tim123]

Just now, weathafella said:

No 12z cmc today it seems.  Needed day off after fukking up 90% of the coastals for 5 years?

Its on French site. Rains in boston.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Or it tracks up the CT Valley and it rains.... or goes back to wide east and sniff cirrus like yesterday's runs.  Plenty to be concerned about but getting a foot of snow seems like something that wouldn't be a concern at this point .

Totally possible, but I don't think so.

[George001]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The snow amount has a limit with this. This is moving steadily, so unless you're in the deformation area W and NW of H7.....I don't see 2'. Looks like a 12-18" limit.

Euro has 30+, I buy that.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

No 12z cmc today it seems.  Needed day off after fukking up 90% of the coastals for 5 years?

goes due north from PVD to ORH

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

Euro has 30+, I buy that.

I bet, as well as coke.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm strongly suspecting this is evolving into total Megalopolis concern now that I'm seeing the 'nuances' of the last 3 cycles of the GEFs mean/spread products, and how they are cyclonically improving their circumvallate over the lower/interior M/A region... As of 12z, there are members if 978 mb abeam of the VA Cape, close enough to the coast ( then considering/knowing the ongoing jet coupling aloft at that time  ~ 114 hrs) to assume there is an explosive expansion of primitive CCB head snow over ROA-DCA ... destined to PHL-NYC-HFD-BOS-CON-PWM.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if the EPS didn't give off the same tenor -

Too bad we can't get DC/BAL in on it too.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, JC-CT said:

Apologize if posted already. Says nothing except they agree it's not going over buffalo.

 

And neither is the AFC Championship. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m most certainly not, but I’m surprised you are. You don’t live in central NH

Interior NE MA is probably in a good as spot as any right now. Far enough east to get the Ukie-Esque solutions but far enough west to still do pretty well in the hugger solutions. 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

Euro has 30+

It's the equivalent of looking at a players stats in Single A and projecting him to be a HOF....

[powderfreak]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Totally possible, but I don't think so.

I guess my point was being concerned with only getting a foot of snow and meso-scale maxes/mins seems premature given how far the models have changed in the last 12 hours alone.

I would sign on a dotted line right now for a foot of snow regardless of what people east or west get, ha.  Be interesting to see how many people would sign for that right now.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Interior NE MA is probably in a good as spot as any right now. Far enough east to get the Ukie-Esque solutions but far enough west to still do pretty well in the hugger solutions. 

He scared.