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February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You’ll catch that(2016).
 

I’m at 24.25” currently.  I Need to double that to reach normal. it’s doable. Hoping we both can score something soon.  Maybe you on the 8th? 

get 12 this month and a march bomb.  not crazy.

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I don't think it looks that cold after this weekend...I wouldn't be surprised if we have plenty of mildly above normal days, but it's also not a no-threat pattern for snow through mid-month. The atmosphere will support snow with a decent track...it's plenty cold for that.

We might get a deeper arctic shot toward mid-month as the western ridge amplifies.

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26 minutes ago, WeatherWilly said:

9 out of the next 13 days are above average high temps here, so I'm a little puzzled by some of the comments.

Some people take "Above average" to mean a blowtorch with no snow chances....but this isn't that type of pattern. But I agree, people should really look at model guidance for next week...it's not cold. It's not a torch either, but in February if you have a little sun with that atmospheric profile, it's easy to have highs cracking 40F. Might be some high diurnal ranges too...where its pretty cold in the morning...esp the rad pits that have snow cover. It does look like we could get an arctic shot or two beyond that though.

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1 hour ago, WeatherWilly said:

Southern southern new england got their big storm thankfully but looks pretty bleak now with above average temps forecasted for the next several weeks.

The models suggest otherwise. We will probably need to wait a couple weeks before we have another shot at a big one, but the late Jan pattern appears to be reloading by around the 10th or so. Often times the first threat whiffs before the pattern really sets in. I’m seeing several long range mets highlighting mid month for a possible bigger storm threat. We are also seeing the MJO stall in phase 3 rather than go to 4 on the latest guidance. In my winter forecast I called for a mild and snowless Feb, but I strongly believe that will bust.

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Will's right.. we start playing 'fake warmth' perception games - that time of the year.  Nape days as it were.   In fact, when it goes calm-ish, and the sun is allowed through, the "fake warmth" can con you into thinking it's actually warm.  

And it kind of is .. I mean I've seen it 55 F, ooa February 15, under 538 dm thickness and 0C at 850 mb, ... with mangled snow pack still in the region, too.  It's super adiabatic in the lowest 300 ft ... That's in the 60s in March.  But it's not really warm, as the sun kisses the tree line and 1/2 hour later it's 28. 

Maple sapping season gets under way -

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By the way ... I started a thread for the first of the two possible events spanning the next 10 days.   That being ~ Feb 8.  It's modeled as a low return on investment right now, but it has a higher upside should stronger relaying S/W mechanics get involved.  We don't have a have a lot of time.. maybe a one day's worth of cycles....eek. 

The one at mid month is also in there, but I don't like the models trying to re-introduce more gradient across the continent than we really need. That's likely to interfere negatively on phasing ...and wtf am I talking about at D9 ...but still -

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

By the way ... I started a thread for the first of the two possible events spanning the next 10 days.   That being ~ Feb 8.  It's modeled as a low return on investment right now, but it has a higher upside should stronger relaying S/W mechanics get involved.  We don't have a have a lot of time.. maybe a one day's worth of cycles....eek. 

The one at mid month is also in there, but I don't like the models trying to re-introduce more gradient across the continent than we really need. That's likely to interfere negatively on phasing ...and wtf am I talking about at D9 ...but still -

I think we are collectively throwing shit at the wall and hoping for stickage!! What are your thoughts on the pattern for 4th week? I am going to Tahoe with my son - hoping Heavenly can get some refresher as they only have had 9 inches since the epicocity of December.

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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Will's right.. we start playing 'fake warmth' perception games - that time of the year.  Nape days as it were.   In fact, when it goes calm-ish, and the sun is allowed through, the "fake warmth" can con you into thinking it's actually warm.  

And it kind of is .. I mean I've seen it 55 F, ooa February 15, under 538 dm thickness and 0C at 850 mb, ... with mangled snow pack still in the region, too.  It's super adiabatic in the lowest 300 ft ... That's in the 60s in March.  But it's not really warm, as the sun kisses the tree line and 1/2 hour later it's 28. 

Maple sapping season gets under way -

There we have it......the first Tip February warmth post.  It's a day or two later than usual.  Probably because the groundhog saw it's shadow.

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8 hours ago, weathafella said:

Lindsay storm like.  But it worked.  That gave me the February 69 vibe.   100 hour storm similar but I was on the outside for that one in Ithaca.

was 10 years old and lived in Wethersfield Connecticut when the Lindsey storm came on my brothers birthday, Don’t know if it was actually a blizzard but it sure seemed like one

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2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And you’ll rain. Don’t chase ghosts.

With optimal low location in early Feb? Possibly to start or if the system stays weak, but if the trough goes negative all bets are off. Due to the marginal airmass I would likely start as rain, but the low would then rapidly deepen and then the rain snow line would crash all the way down to Nantucket as the storm creates its own cold air via dynamic cooling. This would lead to possibly a few hours of blizzard conditions in eastern mass after a bit of rain.

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3 hours ago, George001 said:

With optimal low location in early Feb? Possibly to start or if the system stays weak, but if the trough goes negative all bets are off. Due to the marginal airmass I would likely start as rain, but the low would then rapidly deepen and then the rain snow line would crash all the way down to Nantucket as the storm creates its own cold air via dynamic cooling. This would lead to possibly a few hours of blizzard conditions in eastern mass after a bit of rain.

The only way this happens is if the low blows up, wraps up, and draws cold.   Right now it kind of looks like crap but that has about a day to change.

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