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East Coast Winter Storm (ECWS) potential Jan 21-22 was about 150 miles too far southeast. Is it ATL to New England, or just a portion of or does it yet fritter to a weaker 23-24 event only NJ/PA northward?


wdrag
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1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I do not agree with this. It is one run cycle during which every model is somewhat flatter/further south and east and the ECMWF is only very slightly further south and east & importantly to note, slower. That slowness continues the threat into Sunday with some question marks. One is timing. There are numerous impulses of energy s/w's into the southern stream which could develop. Which one is it going to be or will it be consolidated into one? The European IMO keeps this threat in play maybe another 12 hours later.  The Euro is not bad. It holds serve.

WX/PT

I agree. 

As has been said, this is a very delicate set up. Suppression is a threat for N Mid Atl and NE (ie North of the Mason Dixon) however, a speed up by the southern stream, a slow down by the northern, a displacement of the baroclynic zone, and more will determine where this eventually sets up. 

Also, we have impulses of energy racing every couple of days. This is a pattern where you have to just be patient and see how the pieces progress. For those who want snow in the NE and mid atl, this is a pretty good pattern. Just be patient. 

This storm is not done with or set in stone. Not to mention, we have plenty of S/Ws in both streams. 

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5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

After the awful 12Z suite I'd probably lower chances from 50/50 to like 20% of a storm but it's still not over. We know these coastal scenarios are delicate.  The euro is definitely does not seem to be the model it once was though. 

I believe Nemo in February 2013 was the last high profile snowstorm that only the Euro showed to work out. But that was before the series of upgrades and the January 2015 and 2016 misses. So now we need more than just one model showing any given solution to have enough confidence in an event from more than 72 hrs out. 

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The pattern remains fairly decent for threats of snow around here in the 7-9 day time-frame and a storm could be modeled closer to us within a shorter time-frame than we are used to seeing because of the many shortwaves in both the northern and southern streams. But as long as things move fast it would keep the ceiling lower on any event. The problem shown on the GEPS is that beyond the 7-9-day time-frame the flow could flatten up even more with the modest ridge out west breaking down. If that happens, after perhaps an initial bout of extreme cold we could go at least temporarily back to a more December-like pattern. That said, this is just modeling and solutions can change fast. So we wait and see.

WX/PT

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That was not a good 12z euro op run for Saturday. However the 12z eps look says that the period should not be ignored just because of today. Keep an eye on it for the time being. If it trends worse, it trends worse, but tomorrow is a new day. 

1495270766_eps_mslp_lows_eastcoastus_102(2).thumb.png.01e93afcd5c5370bbe01ef016737edd3.png

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I'm sure it isn't very good, but after a few years of not checking weather models, I'm now back and don't really know anything about the ICON. But it looks to be one model that took a pretty big positive step for the potential Saturday storm. Moved quite a bit west.

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2 hours ago, Greg g said:

Thank you for your input and insight.. so much better than “it’s terrible” “it’s all over” doom and gloom posts that we see all the time 

They're not doom and gloom. They're realistic. People love to wish for snow and are disappointed with reality. Right now, Both the GFS and the Euro are OTS and although the Euro has been closer, they both kinda have been for a while. Could that change? Sure. But up to now, they are OTS.

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1 minute ago, larrye said:

They're not doom and gloom. They're realistic. People love to wish for snow and are disappointed with reality. Right now, Both the GFS and the Euro are OTS and although the Euro has been closer, they both kinda have been for a while. Could that change? Sure. But up to now, they are OTS.

For awhile now? The Euro was HECs at 00z - I think your comment shows people are just as inclined to over-emphasize the negative as people are to wish for snow. While the odds aren't in favor of a big snowstorm this weekend. It's still a relatively reasonable outcome, so something to continue and monitor, not be doom and gloom about. 

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16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Its actually more amped to some degree, especially on the 3k nam.  That evolution Thursday impacts the ensuing event for sure which is another issue with the models 

I wonder if it’s the NAM overamping again….it did a really awful job with this last storm, way too amped

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I don't remember who it was but a poster years ago on easternwx who has vanished since used to always point out when the weaker models agree strongly or are very close to the better models like Euro/GFS/CMC at a range of 72-120 it typically means the solution being spit out is going to drastically change.  The theory is that those weaker models rarely will get an evolution right at that range so odds are the better models are wrong too.  when you consider how close the ICON and NavGEM are to the Euro/GFS idea we can watch if his theory plays out.

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7 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I remember when the euro was king and the gfs sucked. 

The GFS hasn’t been doing so great recently with storm tracks either like we saw with it being overamped on January 3rd.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The GFS hasn’t been doing so great recently with storm tracks either like we saw with it being overamped on January 3rd.

 

 

Its definitely odd that with this event the GFS seems to have won because typically when you're talking about purely southern stream energy coming up out of the Gulf the GFS is going to be owned by the Euro 95 times out of 100, even the last 5 years when the Euro was not as pristine it usually won on those events 

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49 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Its definitely odd that with this event the GFS seems to have won because typically when you're talking about purely southern stream energy coming up out of the Gulf the GFS is going to be owned by the Euro 95 times out of 100, even the last 5 years when the Euro was not as pristine it usually won on those events 

Models seem to lock in cutter tracks like yesterday earlier than coastal storm tracks. Especially like the OP runs did over the ensembles such as the GEFS which were way too suppressed and cold. My guess is that the complexity created by the thermal contrast between the Eastern US and Gulf Stream is just too hard for the longer range runs to resolve.So it’s no surprise that the mesos like the NAM often take the lead with coastals like we saw in January 2016. But they only go out 84 hrs so we need to be patient until the storm track gets within their better range under 36-48 hrs. 

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I honestly think the answer here is, "wait and be patient." With the amount of variation + spread of the models right now for Saturday they're clearly having trouble resolving the outcome, and this just might be a situation where there won't be a clear solution for another couple days or so. Very possible that we get nothing, but since we literally have no ability to control what happens, the answer here is just to sit tight for a bit and see how this plays out as we get closer, and then hope the short range models maybe lock into something interesting.

Yeah, starting to smell a bit like disappointment, but the complexity and variation to me suggests no clear solution yet, IE we wait.

I got shafted on the ACY storm here in Toms River and we underperformed slightly on the fast moving coastal right after (where most of you guys near NYC overperformed), so I'm really hoping this gets its act together. Feels like the month is flying by.

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Gfs 24 hours ago:

image.thumb.png.466bad224a17939de730ee4a14ec2a70.png

 

gfs now:

image.thumb.png.59e2968125f47a9022cfef0e9ddcc2f3.png

I'm not very confident in a storm, but I am confident that we're over blowing the run to run changes. Look at it a day at a time imo for now 

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22 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Gfs 24 hours ago:

image.thumb.png.466bad224a17939de730ee4a14ec2a70.png

 

gfs now:

image.thumb.png.59e2968125f47a9022cfef0e9ddcc2f3.png

I'm not very confident in a storm, but I am confident that we're over blowing the run to run changes. Look at it a day at a time imo for now 

Not sure how long you been around but Its been that way from the beginning of time on these boards...  I dont lose sleep over anything anymore. Its not worth it. 

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The consternation over the models is always entertaining. Look, ya got waves moving through a generally cold environment in January so there's a fair chance for a storm. Even with the players on the field tomorrow we probably won't be able to "see through" the Thursday morning storm until it's in progress so relax, have a beer and some pizza. 

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A_72hrsfc.thumb.gif.f9b0e29cb7e6955cd70e7b9ae24d1af9.gif

up the coast or out to sea?

I will pick door #1  :beer: 

X marks the spot at 1005 mb

7:00am Saturday

Weak 50/50 low and 1037mb High in the Atlantic should

make things interesting to say the least

 

 

 

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18 minutes ago, Doorman said:

A_72hrsfc.thumb.gif.f9b0e29cb7e6955cd70e7b9ae24d1af9.gif

up the coast or out to sea?

I will pick door #1  :beer: 

X marks the spot at 1005 mb

7:00am Saturday

 

 

 

Curious your reasoning.  What factors out west or globally would increase the probability of a more phased, thus more amplified system that would negatively tilt? 

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The consternation over the models is always entertaining. Look, ya got waves moving through a generally cold environment in January so there's a fair chance for a storm. Even with the players on the field tomorrow we probably won't be able to "see through" the Thursday morning storm until it's in progress so relax, have a beer and some pizza. 

giphy.gif

Every year, I watch the same movie. Models bringeth, models taketh away, and so it goes. I now go on if it’s good or bad if Walt or Don or their compatriots comment, combined with the sheer number of posts to sift through.


.
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  • wdrag changed the title to East Coast Winter Storm (ECWS) potential Jan 21-22 was about 150 miles too far southeast. Is it ATL to New England, or just a portion of or does it yet fritter to a weaker 23-24 event only NJ/PA northward?
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