LP08 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 For posterity. Pretty significant change on the ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 ICON looks slower and much further from creating cutoff low through 108 than it did at 12z. Just much weaker overall. 10mb higher MSLP. Probably closer to some of the earlier southern solutions but since it is slower, increased interaction with the trailing northern piece could counteract some of that and bring it north. Probably a much more moderate event if not a total miss to our south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Icon is a southern slider. Nice storm for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 34 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Bold forecast here in Western Loudoun! This was changed! Now just a 30% chance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Icon is a southern slider. Nice storm for NC. Like Roger Smith just stated a few posts above....pretty much ignore the ICON (and JMA). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 There’s another thread for ICON discussion. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Like Roger Smith just stated a few posts above....pretty much ignore the ICON (and JMA). Someone from a different forum said it quite well. The icon is a miss because of what happens near Boise around HR 60-66. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Icon is a southern slider. Nice storm for NC. Well it was a fun couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 The ICON had one good year 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I hope everyone who has been around these boards or the models for any decent amount of time knows even if this ends in triumph, there will almost certainly be drama and temporary heartbreak between now and that time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Be funny if it were correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: The ICON had one good year What year was that? The first year we started looking at it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Def don't listen to this guy. He's a dum dum Stick to Miller Lites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: What year was that? The first year we started looking at it? Last year. Did well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Be funny if it were correct I suspect you wouldn't be laughing though. Nor would anyone north of VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: I suspect you wouldn't be laughing though. Nor would anyone north of VA. No, I’d definitely laugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 The king is on tap. Let’s hope it makes us all happy for happy hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Any GFS predictions? Tempted to say it takes the low over HGR but the mid range old school SE bias on 18z could be in effect. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 43 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Bold forecast here in Western Loudoun! Mostly Sunny with snow.. government-quality automation at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Any GFS predictions? Tempted to say it takes the low over HGR but the mid range old school SE bias on 18z could be in effect. Predicting the HH GFS. We are in full weenie mode now. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Predicting the HH GFS. We are in full weenie mode now. Sadly, what better do we have to do haha. Trust me, if the kids were home I'd rather that option. That being said, we'd like your prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Any GFS predictions? Tempted to say it takes the low over HGR but the mid range old school SE bias on 18z could be in effect. Prediction? PAIN 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Sadly, what better do we have to do haha. Trust me, if the kids were home I'd rather that option. That being said, we'd like your prediction. Persistance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 59 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I see some posts people talking about red flags. Here's your red flag... when the NAVGEM is by itself and east, something is up. Just my $.02......I've seen this before. I assume the 120Hr map has it over Bermuda moving NW? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Predicting the HH GFS. We are in full weenie mode now. It’s better than the dummies tossing the ICON when it shows nothing but hugging the shit out of it when it snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Last year. Did well There's always the CRAS, and Jan. 30, 2010! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Personally, I'm more focused in the evolution at 500/850 and the ensemble mean versus operational. Beyond HR96, you'll just drive yourself crazy focusing on run to run variations of the operational side of things. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Not that the ICON is ever worth analyzing but to my weenie eyes, it looks like a portion of the s/w phased in with the closed low in the southwest so it was a much weaker vort than 12z. Just one of many solutions on the table - but ICON is a shit model so there's that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Is this where it gets sampled badly or goodly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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