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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17


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For those of us who would prefer this not track up the Hudson or CT River valley...what trends do you think we should keep an eye out for in future runs? Besides the obvious of a storm being present.

The whole trough axis 100 miles east, weaker northern stream diving in, greater or less spacing between the southern and northern streams?

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56 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I noted that in my AFD this morning. Ensembles show spread in two ways, in time and in position. Usually you’ll see those 24 hour QPF lines for every member with a random scattering of events throughout time. However the ensembles right now are all showing the same time window for precip. The ones that don’t are because they are out to sea, not because they don’t think they’ll be a storm. It’s a pretty strong signal, especially this far out. 

From BTV's afternoon AFD:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

For early next week, the latest data has trended more amplified with
a strong storm system after it moves across the Southeast US in
response to a northern stream trough tugging it northward. If the
storm is steered northward, we will see at least some effect but it
is too early to know in what way at this time. The latest GFS
ensemble suggests a 20 to 30% chance of seeing at least a 0.5" of
liquid, indicative of at least a moderate snowfall, in Vermont
westward through the Adirondacks. Similar trends in the CMC and
ECMWF global guidance on this forecast cycle occurred. Note this is
a massive shift for ensembles of data, as those initialized 12 hours
earlier indicated low chances of any precipitation for our area. As
a result, we cannot assume a trend yet but have increased
precipitation chances substantially to split the difference between
the latest deterministic guidance and the National Blend of Models.
Stay tuned!
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