40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Its a carbon copy of the GFS. I won't even melt. I think I'd just quit winter for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Congrats to the Berkshires and anyone from Monadnock north on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Really close to a roof collapser for dendrite Congrats? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Ray, don’t you have a finishing move? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, cut said: How do you think blocking will play a role? I watched a couple of my go to Youtube guys (Hall and POW) and they talked up the blocking. The Yellow caution tape will block my house. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Who cares what it shows at day 6. Would you wanna be in the bullseye right now. A run ago it was whiffing east. Just use the ensembles until 3 days out. This is gonna be a big Miller A for everyone lock it in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Sooo much time to go…just another solution. Euro goes flat to full Amp in one run..ya I don’t know? Days and days of modeling to go…there will be big changes going forward. I mean we still need to lose the storm..that’s coming in a couple days too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1-2' of snow on ski country on Monday evening after MLK weekend is … not the best timing for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 You guys are just using all the crappy models though. I'm using my JMA/NOGAPS/UKMET blend, and I'm really hoping we can get a bump or two west over the next few days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 I'd stick to the GEFs ens mean vs the EPS ense mean vs the GEPs ens mean, and negotiate between them for the time being. These operational runs are likely on the western edge of their clusters, and don't have to necessarily be the true track and intensity and everything else blah blah blah 100 Xs we go through this 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'd stick to the GEFs ens mean vs the EPS ense mean vs the GEPs ens mean, and negotiate between them for the time being. These operational runs are likely on the western edge of their clusters, and don't have to necessarily be the true track and intensity and everything else blah blah blah 100 Xs we go through this Yea, that is def. the western edge of the envelop...its not going through Detroit, I don't think. Where is progressive sir Hadley when we need him? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: I'd stick to the GEFs ens mean vs the EPS ense mean vs the GEPs ens mean, and negotiate between them for the time being. These operational runs are likely on the western edge of their clusters, and don't have to necessarily be the true track and intensity and everything else blah blah blah 100 Xs we go through this Indeed. Although I forgive anyone for following this one more closely at a longer lead, given the qpf being spit out by multiple models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Ray is Johnny Cage being finished off by sub-zero temps after the rain 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Ray is Johnny Cage being finished off by sub-zero temps after the rain need to photoshop his face on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Ray is Johnny Cage being finished off by sub-zero temps after the rain This winter has been a flawless victory for the Methuen butt-bang brigade, no doubt. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Good spot right now for when we start getting tics east trends like most of the cutters earlier, I rather start here then 500 miles off shore try to tug it back west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Really nice run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 That run is in inch for me, to 12" for KASH, 10-12 miles west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 12Z Euro 974ish NYC to Portland. Snow map is a 10:1 ratio 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 All models seem to agree that the high will not be in a good spot. She'll have to be a needle-threader. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 the OP runs are on the far western edge of their respective ensemble means, I’m not particularly worried about a far W track, especially given the initial confluence over Canada it’s a possibility, but not a major concern IMO the 500mb look is amazing though, that’s what matters most at this range 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said: 12Z Euro 974ish NYC to Portland. Snow map is a 10:1 ratio looks like that analog from yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Good spot right now for when we start getting tics east trends like most of the cutters earlier, I rather start here then 500 miles off shore try to tug it back west. Yeah agreed. Overall trend on these has been east. I expect by Friday whiff concerns will be back on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I’d be getting giddy in WNE, NYS up into NNE away from the sea coasts. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, not sure how anyone east of Albany would be pumped about a full phase. Well, thank god the NAO block is gone I think, verbatim, I would probably get pretty substantial thump of snow before the changeover. Not that it makes me feel any better about flipping to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I think, verbatim, I would probably get pretty substantial thump of snow before the changeover. Not that it makes me feel any better about flipping to rain. You still get over a foot. I doubt it ends up that far west, but if the ensembles march towards it, I give up this year. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Christina........???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 13 minutes ago, cut said: How do you think blocking will play a role? I watched a couple of my go to Youtube guys (Hall and POW) and they talked up the blocking. We're going to have to play that factor .. modulate in as the week unfolds. Right now we have a modest -NAO that appears to be over the western limb of the domain - BUT - not so overwhelmingly so that it suppresses the storm track altogether. As an early "hunch," that it is not favoring western New England tracks - but the NAO is vagarious, often inside of weekly time spans... And it's transitive influence on how/where this or anything else that comes of it ultimately moves, is sensitive to nuances - we'll have to see. This is all made possible by Pacific flow corrections if you ask me. I mean the telecon was suggestive, and the graphics left something to be desired... they've merely come into sync now - boom.. I don't think this was random change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Christina........???? Reminds me a little of that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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