East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[TriPol]

35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

woah need to keep track of this, we've been having  a lot of fires lately

Now 10 alarms.

[sussexcountyobs]

Just now, TriPol said:

Now 10 alarms.

Just heard about that on news. Rt 21 and 46 affected. 

[sussexcountyobs]

2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Now 10 alarms.

Chemical fire. I'm glad wind is blowing away from me. Everyone down wind stay safe. Who knows what those chemicals are?

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

4 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Chemical fire. I'm glad wind is blowing away from me. Everyone down wind stay safe. Who knows what those chemicals are?

They said they were pool chemicals chlorine.

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said:

They said they were pool chemicals chlorine.

Not good to breathe in. 

[sussexcountyobs]

17 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Now 10 alarms.

Hopefully with the gusty nw winds, it will dissipate the chemicals  

[LoboLeader1]

 

[NorthShoreWx]

So is this an Ohio Valley storm yet?

[MJO812]

Euro is better for the interior because the low is alot further east than the gfs and Nam.

[EasternLI]

06z NAM has winds of 70+kts at 925mb take a tour of Long Island. Let's not mix that down too effectively please.

[nycsnow]

Upton mentioning warning level winds, if models are right up and down nj coast nyc east will have a significant wind event 

[wdrag]

What I am projecting based on modeling through 6AM. I've added 3 graphics.  Note yet changing the headline. May lower the snow impact to interior and hype the wind a bit more but for now, until certitude, I'm staying with the headline.

 

NYC: seems like an hour of snow begins 7P-830P Sunday changing to sleet-for a little while, then to heavy rain by midnight Sunday with 3 hours of 45-55 MPH easterly wind gusts sometime sometime between 1AM and 7AM Monday. Untreated surfaces possibly slippery for a couple of hours Sunday evening.  Power outages possible because of the wind early Monday. Snowfall probably a trace to an an inch.  NYC might see a slight accumulation of snow Monday evening with the trough aloft passage and temperatures falling back below freezing.  That Monday evening backside may be a small travel problem. 

 

I84 corridor from the Poconos-northwest NJ-southeast NYS-W CT. Snow Sunday night should begin 7PM-10PM, probably briefly heavy changing to sleet and freezing rain by 5 AM Monday and then to a bit of rain Monday morning daylight hours. It goes back over to snow showers Monday afternoon or evening where slippery conditions might redevelop on untreated surfaces. I see significant travel problems, especially Poconos extreme northwest NJ (Sussex County) into the hills west of Hartford between 10PM Sunday and 7AM Monday with delays or cancels for Monday morning activities, especially the Poconos. Snow amounts uncertain due to how fast the snow changes to ice. I lowered the minimum snowfall 1.5" because of my concerns for snow to change to tick-tick-tick (sleet) about 3-5 hours after it starts snowing. My guess is generally 2-5" before the change. There might be another 1/2-1" of snow late Monday on the backside of the storm, but that is manageable by exercising a little caution. The main problem is midnight to 6AM Monday morning when snow-ice should be heavy for a time, and scattered wind gusts to 45 MPH could cause a few power outages. 

 

Appended the NWS snowfall forecast as of 5AM; the NWS ensemblechance of 4+" and the experimental winter storm severity index.

 

I may work on that thread headline as early as 2PM.  Have a day.

 

[HVSnowLover]

From this point forward Id mainly use the NAM and maybe RGEM for temps/precip types. The globals are not going to sniff out the details of mid level warming. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2° this morning, expecting sub zero tonight and rain tomorrow night.

Sometimes everything has to go right for it to snow. This is a textbook case of everything having to go wrong for it not to snow.

 

[HVSnowLover]

13 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

2° this morning, expecting sub zero tonight and rain tomorrow night.

Sometimes everything has to go right for it to snow. This is a textbook case of everything having to go wrong for it not to snow.

 

Be surprised if its raining tomorrow night up there. I mean this storm is powerful but so is this airmass and I think once you get into Orange County that surface cold air will be hard to scour out. 

[sussexcountyobs]

21 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

2° this morning, expecting sub zero tonight and rain tomorrow night.

Sometimes everything has to go right for it to snow. This is a textbook case of everything having to go wrong for it not to snow.

 

Down to +1° this morning. Currently +3°

[MJO812]

On 1/11/2022 at 11:11 AM, Franklin0529 said:

This one has a real chance to cut I think 

Good call

On 1/11/2022 at 11:14 AM, NEG NAO said:

Can't make this stuff up look at the 12Z GFS now !

 

Gfs did good with this storm

[IrishRob17]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Good call

Gfs did good with this storm

And take a look at the snow accumulation map from that run…

 

[HeadInTheClouds]

25 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Be surprised if its raining tomorrow night up there. I mean this storm is powerful but so is this airmass and I think once you get into Orange County that surface cold air will be hard to scour out. 

It will likely change to plain rain Monday morning around dawn but most precip should be done by then. I'm 20 miles north of 84 in Dutchess county. Still expecting 2-4 inches of snow starting around 10 pm before changeover to sleet and ZR 3-4 hours later. I think it snows pretty good in that small window and then maybe some snow showers later on Monday. I have included NWS Albany updated snow forecast which was slightly lowered. 

 

[Brian5671]

26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Good call

Gfs did good with this storm

GFS has led the way for sure-it's not the same ol GFS anymore!

[Greg g]

Any storms to look out for on the horizon after this one??

[Jt17]

1 minute ago, Greg g said:

Any storms to look out for on the horizon after this one??

Next weekend?

[SnoSki14]

8 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Next weekend?

That's the one. High pressure placement already suggests this should trend west over time. 

[NittanyWx]

47 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

And take a look at the snow accumulation map from that run…

 

I dk how many times this week I said that wasn't gonna be snow...

[IrishRob17]

Just now, NittanyWx said:

I dk how many times this week I said that wasn't gonna be snow...

People still take the bait 

[wdrag]

I looked at 12z NAM/3K.  The wind windowg45-60 MPH  is about 3 hours.

I'm not changing anything on the thread headline yet. It's been left open to a host of possibilities.

Coastal flooding is not a lock for anything more than minor in our area. Why? Because max inflow has departed to the east by the time of high tide. Only the low pressure in the 980's is the reason for continued big positive surge.  Also EKMAN transport onshore ie better on east-northeast surface winds than southerly for our shores.  Need further scrutiny but timing is critical.

[HVSnowLover]

The good news: Models bringing in precip slightly faster around 7/8 pm which means metro area may get an hour of frozen at the start

 

Bad News: Upper levels torching so fast that now even I84 corridor is pingling before midnight tomorrow.  

[White Gorilla]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

The good news: Models bringing in precip slightly faster around 7/8 pm which means metro area may get an hour of frozen at the start

 

Bad News: Upper levels torching so fast that now even I84 corridor is pingling before midnight tomorrow.  

Wow, pinging earlier than thought?  What a shocker.... Not! 

[HeadInTheClouds]

5 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Wow, pinging earlier than thought?  What a shocker.... Not! 

It's still the same 3-4 hour window for snow on 3K nam, just starts a little earlier. 

[jm1220]

24 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Wow, pinging earlier than thought?  What a shocker.... Not! 

Very frequent that storms start earlier than expected but also mix faster.