mappy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, H2O said: I usually get rain when not under an advisory. But you are to the north and that rain changes to snow. It will snow. If you don't get snow I will light myself on fire. lol no need to light yourself on fire. I’m sure I’ll see flakes at least, even if it doesn’t amount to much. It’s 60° imby on Jan 2, I’ll happily take a wintry day even if short lived. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Quasievil said: Yeah, interesting his take here. Not having the ICON on our side, whatever, but the NAM still not onboard is concerning. ICON is 100 times more reliable than the NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, Amped said: I can see not going with 10+ totals on the GFS because of possible mixing issues at the start. 2-4" is really low balling it though. Factor in a possible flash freeze and it's almost 100% chance of a high impact event that deserves a WSW. Agree. I was surprised by how low they went. 12z EURO run is huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Tommy T ain’t having it (much like a covid vaccine) What is he seeing, exactly? I'm baffled by the hesitation. If you want to talk about sharp cutoffs, fine. But the GFS/CMC/Euro blended are nowhere remotely close to what he is saying. Good luck pinning your hopes to the Icon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, Amped said: NWS actually gives us a good chance for an over-performer. Add it to the list: 1/30/2010 1/6/2015 1/12/2019 Pending: 1/3/2022 3/17/2014 as well. The environment leading into the event is pretty similar to this, as temps peaked in the 60s the day before with precip onset after nightfall. Fairly different setup overall but that definitely surprised some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Anyone got the ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: ICON is 100 times more reliable than the NAM Concerning nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: ICON is 100 times more reliable than the NAM So true people are clueless in regards to the ICON. It is a trend setter not a follower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Tommy T ain’t having it (much like a covid vaccine) He has really declined in recent years. I would sooner trust Vice Regent. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Can you take a moment to formulate a coherent thought? I'm more annoyed that he infringed on the meme territory. That is an appalling lack of reading the room. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 23 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: What's the plan for the 3k NAM? Will be retired. NAM (parent and nest), RAP/HRRR, and Hi-Res Windows will be turned off when the RRFS is implemented (or very soon after). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, peribonca said: Anyone got the ukie? Haven’t looked myself that it allegedly inched north relative to its 0z but it ain’t no GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, high risk said: Will be retired. NAM (parent and nest), RAP/HRRR, and Hi-Res Windows will be turned off when the RRFS is implemented (or very soon after). Is it possible for you to retire Vice Regents computer as well? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 23 minutes ago, H2O said: Hey, guys. I don't want to cause a panic but the sun is out and its 62F right now. I was out moving firewood around getting ready for the storm and I am all sweaty, think I need to turn the AC on. Do I live in Denver now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: Haven’t looked myself that it allegedly inched north relative to its 0z but it ain’t no GFS A LOT better than 00Z but not there yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, H2O said: Is it possible for you to turn off Vice Regents computer as well? They really REALLY need to lift the keyboard foreclosure ban 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: So true people are clueless in regards to the ICON. It is a trend setter not a follower. I've simply never seen it he used in any meaningful discussions. I'll be sure to refer to it more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terrapinwx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Not quite the GFS, but the UKIE made a sizable shift north from its last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I have no idea if that's a shift north or not but will take your word for it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Tommy T ain’t having it (much like a covid vaccine) He used the ICON as his baseline? 1 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Quasievil said: I've simply never seen it he used in any meaningful discussions. I'll be sure to refer to it more. It was really solid last year. It is often the most consistent model from range. I do think this storm has for whatever reason caused havoc with most models. If the gfs nails this it is truly a remarkable performance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: A LOT better than 00Z but not there yet. Looks like the Nam so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: What is he seeing, exactly? I'm baffled by the hesitation. If you want to talk about sharp cutoffs, fine. But the GFS/CMC/Euro blended are nowhere remotely close to what he is saying. Good luck pinning your hopes to the Icon. I guessing because the meso models aren’t picking up on the broader north precip expansion as GFS and Euro, he’s considering them overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Euro coming through now... h5 looking good. Cutoff is stronger. Tilt is more negative through 18. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, baltosquid said: Euro coming through now... h5 looking good. Cutoff is stronger. Tilt is more negative through 18. You are my new fav poster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Euro at 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Looks like the Nam so far... Yeah, it does a bit, but here's the 00Z for comparison on the big progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Euro destroys us 8 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Truly amazing! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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