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January 3 CAPE Storm


WxUSAF
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Just now, H2O said:

I usually get rain when not under an advisory.  But you are to the north and that rain changes to snow.  It will snow.  If you don't get snow I will light myself on fire.

lol no need to light yourself on fire. I’m sure I’ll see flakes at least, even if it doesn’t amount to much. It’s 60° imby on Jan 2, I’ll happily take a wintry day even if short lived. 

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Just now, Amped said:

I can see not going with 10+ totals on the GFS because of possible mixing issues at the start.

2-4" is really low balling it though. Factor in a possible flash freeze and it's almost 100% chance of a high impact event that deserves a WSW.

Agree. I was surprised by how low they went. 12z EURO run is huge

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Tommy T ain’t having it

(much like a covid vaccine):whistle:

 

What is he seeing, exactly? I'm baffled by the hesitation. If you want to talk about sharp cutoffs, fine. But the GFS/CMC/Euro blended are nowhere remotely close to what he is saying. Good luck pinning your hopes to the Icon.

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15 minutes ago, Amped said:

NWS actually gives us a good chance for an over-performer.

Add it to the list:

1/30/2010

1/6/2015

1/12/2019

Pending: 1/3/2022

 

3/17/2014 as well. The environment leading into the event is pretty similar to this, as temps peaked in the 60s the day before with precip onset after nightfall. Fairly different setup overall but that definitely surprised some. 

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

         Will be retired.     NAM (parent and nest), RAP/HRRR, and Hi-Res Windows will be turned off when the RRFS is implemented (or very soon after).  

Is it possible for you to retire Vice Regents computer as well?

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2 minutes ago, Quasievil said:

I've simply never seen it he used in any meaningful discussions. I'll be sure to refer to it more.

It was really solid last year. It is often the most consistent model from range. I do think this storm has for whatever reason caused havoc with most models. If the gfs nails this it is truly a remarkable performance 

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5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

What is he seeing, exactly? I'm baffled by the hesitation. If you want to talk about sharp cutoffs, fine. But the GFS/CMC/Euro blended are nowhere remotely close to what he is saying. Good luck pinning your hopes to the Icon.

I guessing because the meso models aren’t picking up on the broader north precip expansion as GFS and Euro, he’s considering them overdone. 

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