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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

But we are very close to this. If this were to just go poof, it would be a precedent I think.

The only problem with this is the other models are already in "poof" territory.  Yes, they have something, but it slides south for the most part.  Although, nobody mentioned the 6z RGEM which took a step toward the 0z and was better than it's own 0z run.  

It really is the Euro on an island of it's own, so "poof" is definitely on the table.  It would be pretty remarkable tho.

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

the europeans should disable any off runs if the 00z or 12z looked really good. In the old day, we would of still been celebrating the 00z run

Instead they torture us with off runs that only go to 90 hours so we are forced to use imagination from there on in time.

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22 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

It really is interesting over the years Steve that when the Euro has been on its own with a solution and the rest of the models don't have it, the trend is almost always for the Euro to trend to the others. This has especially been the case where it was bullish on snow (though thats probably when were paying the most attention). 

My recollection from being here over 10 years has been this:

The Euro would show a solution(good or bad) and was often on its own.  The other models(GFS, Ukie, CMC) would all be showing the same thing but at odds with what the Euro shows.  Over time the other 3 would slowly come towards the Euro's general idea.  The Euro would also adjust towards the other 3 but at a much slower rate and scale.  Around 2 days out there would then become a consensus with all the models and they would each have subtle differences 

 

There have been times each model has "won" and others come to its initial solution.  But each storm is unique IMO and the +/- of each model helps/hurts it for each one.  

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1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

Ask him to define disaster I bet it's 6"

The problem is people see 20" and they set that as "the storm".  KU aren't every day things here, but grown ass adults act like the top number they see is it.  Anything less and storm cancel...fail, etc etc.   Realistically, anything over 10 in this area is shooting for the moon.  If we got a 6 - 12'er I'd be jumping for joy.

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

The problem is people see 20" and they set that as "the storm".  KU aren't every day things here, but grown ass adults act like the top number they see is it.  Anything less and storm cancel...fail, etc etc.   Realistically, anything over 10 in this area is shooting for the moon.  If we got a 6 - 12'er I'd be jumping for joy.

As long as Conn. Ave caves so it can be a legit storm you will be happy

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The problem is people see 20" and they set that as "the storm".  KU aren't every day things here, but grown ass adults act like the top number they see is it.  Anything less and storm cancel...fail, etc etc.   Realistically, anything over 10 in this area is shooting for the moon.  If we got a 6 - 12'er I'd be jumping for joy.

I'd take 6-12" in a heartbeat (but kinda only if MBY was closer to 12").

Thing is...if we got 6-12" and SE VA got 12-18", I'd be maybe a little annoyed.

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2 hours ago, dtk said:

Yes, it's called GRAPES: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news-from-members/cma-upgrades-global-numerical-weather-prediction-grapesgfs-model-china

Every time someone mentions "sampling", I die a little inside. Almost all meteorological information is shared internationally....nearly all modeling centers start from the same base set of data from which to choose/utilize. There are two main exceptions: 1) some data is from the private sector and has limits as to how it can be shared, 2) some places aren't allowed to use certain data from some entities; e.g., here in the US we aren't allowed to us observations from Chinese satellites which isn't the case at ECMWF/UKMO, etc. There can be other differences that are a function of data provider, such as who produces retrievals of AMVs, GPS bending angle, etc. Generally speaking, differences is in how the observations are used...not in the observations themselves.

No, see above regarding data. The signal that was in the "innovation" field, which is just the difference between a short term forecast and the observations. In this case, the signal is real as a result of the shockwave and showed up in certain observations that are used in NWP. I do not have it handy, but I bet we would see similar signals in other NWP systems for that same channel. Further, what was shown was just the information that went into that particular DA cycle and not the analysis itself. Even if that signal was put into the model, it would be very short lived....both in terms of that particular forecast but subsequent cycles. It has no bearing on the current set of forecasts.

They call it grapes?   Do you know if it's available publicly for free?  I'd be interested in checking it out.  

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7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The problem is people see 20" and they set that as "the storm".  KU aren't every day things here, but grown ass adults act like the top number they see is it.  Anything less and storm cancel...fail, etc etc.   Realistically, anything over 10 in this area is shooting for the moon.  If we got a 6 - 12'er I'd be jumping for joy.

Violently agree 

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42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think the euro bashing over one storm is over the top. It did best with the next snow event and was better with the last one too.  It’s still better than Gfs overall. 
 

That said we’re getting into the range all the major globals have been good. So if only one is off on its own that’s suspect. So I think if we don’t see some significant movement in the icon/Gfs/ggem today that’s a bad sign. I also suspect if we don’t see any improvement today the euro will begin to trend towards them. This is totally superficial analysis based on recent model behavior at specific lead times. 

I did not think the 06z Euro was quite as good as the overnight run.. or yesterday's 12z.. is this the beginning of the cave in? We will see! This post has 0 help on the overall discussion, just my two cents!

 

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's an inferior Ave.   I have a weird obsession with this city's design and it angers me to no end that NH isn't contiguous and misaligned.  **** NH Ave!

I grew up just off of New Hampshire Ave but in Takoma Park Maryland it seemed pretty straight to me when I walked to work

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2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

I did not think the 06z Euro was quite as good as the overnight run.. or yesterday's 12z.. is this the beginning of the cave in? We will see! This post has 0 help on the overall discussion, just my two cents!

 

But it was completely in character so you have that

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Nam isn't too far away, things just happen too late. Definitely moving in the right direction. Still too far southeast for most of us, 95ish probably would have been furthest NW extent of flakes or just too far to get anything, but hopefully the start of a trend.

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