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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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3 minutes ago, Ji said:
29 minutes ago, stormtracker said:
The GFS is irritating my soul right now.  Hopefully Euro looks like RGEM and then I can rationalize chucking the GFS, although deep down, I know it's probably gonna end up right.

When the gfs says no....its usually no

If the GFS is right, it would be a disaster.  But thankfully, it's likely confused with all that shit going on at H5.  Changes every 6 hours.

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2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

idgaf about cold if there is no snow. i gotta walk/bike to class, lol. and stumble back home from the bar. Might as well be 70 if its not snowing 

Yeah but it’s handy to have around when precip arrives.  Looking at NA view it’s cold up there too…and looks aimed toward the east.  

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26 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Keep talkin' dirty.

I really like what I see down the line. Continental cold air factory appears to run unabated thru early Feb at least. We don't want a big hilly amplified pattern either. I saw some people posting ens mean maps like this a week ago and my first thought was cold/dry and not snow. 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_43.png

 

IF ens means have it right, the PNA ridge is going to retrograde and turn the entire conus into a more broad/zonal trough with cold air wall to wall in Canada. With Feb wavelengths shortening and cold domes pushing hard against it, storm track could run WSW-ENE from the middle of the conus easterward

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_61.png

I'm using the gefs for visual reference only. All ensembles have their own version. If we start getting attacked by shortwaves approaching from the WSW, I'm going to get pretty excited. I don't like tracking big amplified storms running uphill nearly due north on approach. Too much can go wrong and volatility wreaks havoc. I like highway style storms that elongate and run along tracks more W-E than S-N. Hard to get a hecs that way but it makes it really easy to get 4-8" of all snow and no temp worries 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I really like what I see down the line. Continental cold air factory appears to run unabated thru early Feb at least. We don't want a big hilly amplified pattern either. I saw some people posting ens mean maps like this a week ago and my first thought was cold/dry and not snow. 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_43.png

 

IF ens means have it right, the PNA ridge is going to retrograde and turn the entire conus into a more broad/zonal trough with cold air wall to wall in Canada. With Feb wavelengths shortening and cold domes pushing hard against it, storm track could run WSW-ENE from the middle of the conus easterward

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_61.png

I'm using the gefs for visual reference only. All ensembles have their own version. If we start getting attacked by shortwaves approaching from the WSW, I'm going to get pretty excited. I don't like big amplified storms running upholl nearly due north on approach. Too much can go wrong and volatility wreaks havoc. I like highway style storms that elongate and run along tracks more W-E than S-N. Hard to get a hecs that way but it makes it really easy to get 4-8" of all snow and no temp worries 

 

 

I agree with that last statement. But I do want one bomb cutter into tn/oh valley with single digit cad in place lol

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1 minute ago, snowmagnet said:

I'm wondering if the models won't have an accurate idea of next weekend until yesterday's storm is out of the picture.  Also, the GFS might just be waiting until 48 before game time like on Jan 3rd.  

Ops are showing us that it's active, fast flow, and cold around. The time to jump on a solution is when everything downstream is out of the way and ops can focus on the same shortwave. Last few days had some seemingly similar solutions but the snow came from different digital shortwaves. Once 2 ops show snow the same way from the same shortwave, it's tracking time. Unfortunately it's prob not going to happen outside of 4 day or so leads 

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s like we are thinking some of the same stuff today. I was thinking 0z Wed runs are gonna be the ones.

Absolutely! Plenty time. May not gain any consensus until Thursday. All we need is to just keep the system on the map and hopefully it corrects at 60 hours. If we get more support earlier  then that's all the better. We've all been through this drill before.

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17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s like we are thinking some of the same stuff today. I was thinking 0z Wed runs are gonna be the ones.

We both appear to strongly believe in winter "personalities" when they show up. They can have their way and override any and every conventional thought. They can render blocks useless or turn a marginal pattern into a snow parade. It's important not to let recency bias cloud your head. Last year was last year. Last time I've seen anything like what guidance is showing now is the 6 week period from 2/14 - 3/31 back in 2015. 

Not every winter has a personality. Especially a strong one. Last year's personality fought us tooth and nail door to door in the face of decent longwave looks. This winter appears to have shown its hand. 3 for 3 in two weeks happens like never in my yard. That's meaningful and beyond dumb luck imo. I'm riding the it wants to snow this year personality until it's over. Me thinks it's going to be a while yet...

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@Bob Chill to piggy back on you’re pattern post…I’ve seen a lot of fret regarding Feb and I do agree the amplified north pac trough/ridge likely can’t last all winter against the Nina base state but if cold is established and the pac relaxes some, so long as we don’t go all the way to the opposite with a raging western/central pac ridge we probably can do pretty good in February. Actually if we could get another cycle of NAO help in Feb with just a mediocre pac state and cold around that’s better for snow chances Imo. We’ve had lots of years where once we get cold dumped into the conus we can survive a less ideal pattern after and get more chances. On the flip we’ve seen years where good patterns are wasted due to lack of cold around!  So long as the pac doesn’t go back to putrid I think we can maintain a workable pattern even after the inevitable relaxation. Maybe even get more snow out if it. 

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As for specific threats I’ve not looked at the frontal wave Thursday so I dunno. The weekend threat imo depends totally on where the timing snd amplitude of the several  NS waves coming across. If one of them can be timed up just behind the southern wave and amplified enough it will help pull the storm up. 12z gfs has a NS wave about 12 hours too fast out in front which acts in the opposite way. No way the models are going to nail that yet Imo. Probably 48 hours away from them having a realistic shot. At some point this week the guidance will start to show some consistency both across guidance and run to run and that’s when it’s ok to think synoptic details might be getting resolved. 

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Interesting. Top D11 analog is a nasty nasty ice storm in OK, TN, KY, etc and also a sizeable snow event in NC/SC. Overall, analogs show active winter wx all over the east half of the conus in general. Good times. 

 

500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

2nd was from an awful year but the one snowy period that year. 

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill to piggy back on you’re pattern post…I’ve seen a lot of fret regarding Feb and I do agree the amplified north pac trough/ridge likely can’t last all winter against the Nina base state but if cold is established and the pac relaxes some, so long as we don’t go all the way to the opposite with a raging western/central pac ridge we probably can do pretty good in February. Actually if we could get another cycle of NAO help in Feb with just a mediocre pac state and cold around that’s better for snow chances Imo. We’ve had lots of years where once we get cold dumped into the conus we can survive a less ideal pattern after and get more chances. On the flip we’ve seen years where good patterns are wasted due to lack of cold around!  So long as the pac doesn’t go back to putrid I think we can maintain a workable pattern even after the inevitable relaxation. Maybe even get more snow out if it. 

I'm simply not going to sweat a thing until Canada warms up. For me, it's that simple. Even if the pna screws us, as long as the continental air factory keeps running, we're in the game it seems. We haven't had a cold Canada for a few years. Would make sense that it keeps running. 

On another note... my yard just crossed 4" of precip for Jan. Might easily end up 5" or more. I don't track qpf like snow but I can't even remotely remember a wet Jan like this. Multiple events over 1". Nutty. 

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm simply not going to sweat a thing until Canada warms up. For me, it's that simple. Even if the pna screws us, as long as the continental air factory keeps running, we're in the game it seems. We haven't had a cold Canada for a few years. Would make sense that it keeps running. 

On another note... my yard just crossed 4" of precip for Jan. Might easily end up 5" or more. I don't track qpf like snow but I can't even remotely remember a wet Jan like this. Multiple events over 1". Nutty. 

The drought thread is suffering 

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I’ve been busy but just from glancing at the pattern with all the waves I’d be shocked if something doesn’t eventually work out for a flush hit in the next few weeks.  Yea it’s possible stuff keeps fringing us one way then the next but just probabilities in this look would put odds that one of these waves works. 

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