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Overunning Mixed Event 12/18-12/19/21


dryslot
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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yes… it’s a pretty hefty thump for everyone off the cape 

Yeah the different grid sizes are worlds apart in terms of solutions, ha.  That 3km was a nice thump to ice, ending as some rain for a good chunk of posters.  Would likely end with white ground for many.

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2 hours ago, IowaStorm05 said:

It wouldn’t surprise me if we start seeing some winters where the south coast and islands fails to receive 1 inch for the entire winter. Not very often but some years I guarantee will be snowless. 

We had under 10 inches in 06-07 in SE CT, and a couple others after that around 11-12-13 inches, but under an inch will be pretty tough to do even in the snow hole of SNE.

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24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd take 3-4" of snow and run.

I think you're good for 3-4" given the tics colder at 12z today. Just outside of Boston metro inside 128 I'm thinking 1-3".

Not bad model consensus 48 hours away. At the moment, NAM seems on its own with the aggressive WAA.

18z RGEM ticked warmer, but it was one of the coldest models so far.

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ICON tickled colder at 18z if we even give a sh*t about that model....it was one of the warmer ones at 12z though....so we're seeing some convergence now (RGEM coming in warmer after being one of the coldest models too).

A meager event, but pretty decent consensus at 48 hours.

How could this surprise other than colder/warmer? Other thing I'm watching is if QPF ramps up or shreds out. 12z -> 18z looked a tick drier. We don't have much buffer...

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1 hour ago, snowman21 said:

We had under 10 inches in 06-07 in SE CT, and a couple others after that around 11-12-13 inches, but under an inch will be pretty tough to do even in the snow hole of SNE.

I remember O6-07. I lived in Westerly! Not only was it under 10 inches…. But half of that fell from a storm in April 2007, which isn’t even winter. 
 

the Valentines Day storm at first was promising to be a blizzard on the coast. This was in the days of those early accuweather discussion videos. I was horrified when about 2-3 days out they revealed that it would be a “mix of rain and snow along the 95 corridor”. This was bad because I knew that meant mostly rain for us. And mostly rain it was, it was pooling water under a thin crust of ice.

The evening it arrived I saw exactly one large snowflake before plain sleet started the onset. 
 

Another winter was equally as bad: 2001-2002. Same place. Same bullshit kind of winter. I guess we got 5 inches that season.

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