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December 10-11 Winter Storm


madwx
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It's been a slow start to the season but a dynamic shortwave trough looks to move through the central US causing lee cyclogenesis and Colorado low moving NE through the sub.   Euro(and to a lesser extent the GFS)has been consistent showing a band of double digit snow totals to the NW of the low center and has been trending slightly SE with each.  Right now the highest risk seems to be to the north of the WI/IL border.

At the same time a potentially substantial severe risk will be occurring in the southern parts of our subforum.  

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15 hours ago, madwx said:

It's been a slow start to the season but a dynamic shortwave trough looks to move through the central US causing lee cyclogenesis and Colorado low moving NE through the sub.   Euro(and to a lesser extent the GFS)has been consistent showing a band of double digit snow totals to the NW of the low center and has been trending slightly SE with each.  Right now the highest risk seems to be to the north of the WI/IL border.

At the same time a potentially substantial severe risk will be occurring in the southern parts of our subforum.  

SPC has been pretty low-key with this, never outlining an area beyond Day 3, and just a 15% slight risk now that it is Day 3.

Broyles must be on vacation...that or they're gun-shy after all the 11th hour failures of seemingly slam-dunk outbreaks in recent years (although mostly the ones west and north of Dixie).

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After trending southward for a couple days, looks like most models have shifted back north a little.  Beginning to think the chances for a fresh foot of snow are becoming more likely.  If so, that would put the snow depth here in excess of 2 feet by late Saturday and with the freeze and thaw pattern upcoming, it will likely harden up the snowpack and create a little extra staying power.  At any rate, I don't expect a complete melt off up here next week..

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It's a crazy we have a threat like this so close to the shortest day of the year, but then again, cold season has been the severe season in my area in recent years. It's a shame initiation will likely be after sunset, but regardless I'll be chasing anyway due to the rarity of the event.

This is actually quite a scary setup considering the giant area of the warm sector, the screaming storm motions, and nighttime initiation. Plus many will be caught off guard due to the fact that it's December. Even crazier is that we might get another tornado threat next week much further to the NW. :blink:

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39 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Another aspect to watch is the synoptic high wind potential. Should have 45-60MPH wind gusts potential across IL/IN/MI/OH.


.

Watches already up for lower Michigan, we look to mix almost to 800mb and there is 65kts up there so we could really be in for quite an event here locally Saturday morning and into the afternoon.

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I'm hoping the 3km NAM is correct in giving us a quick half inch of rain prior to dry slot intrusion.  If HRRR verifies a tenth or so would do it lol.  Looks like a burst of flurries possible around daybreak Sat.  Storm system doesn't get it's act together soon enough to give this area anything notable. :cry:

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6 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

First winter storm warning of the season imby. Going to be sweating the gradient tomorrow, would like to be 30-40 miles south but given the pattern we are in I’ll take it! 

4123DBCF-FFEC-434A-8DB2-0344896D9672.jpeg

You could be getting lucky

1186541849_StormTotalSnow(1).thumb.jpg.205c298b0662a4b78cf55b11a74f311e.jpg

I haven't gotten over 12'' of snow in a storms since December 2010. Last time I remember southern Minnesota getting over 14'' was May 2013.

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