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Wednesday 12/8 Possible Snow/Ice/Rain? Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Sometimes I wonder why we do all this fussing over anticipating an inevitable outcome. From an outsider's perspective, it's pretty irrational behavior.

For those who aren't meteorologists/ interested in actually forecasting and/or those who get disproportionally emotionally invested in fantasy computer images (ie. the neurotic types), it might honestly make sense to not track storms and just enjoy what comes at a day-by-day level, save for a BOX discussion or two. Unless you have meaningful friends on this site, then the story changes. 

Just thinking out loud a little.

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10 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Sometimes I wonder why we do all this fussing over anticipating an inevitable outcome. From an outsider's perspective, it's pretty irrational behavior.

For those who aren't meteorologists/ interested in actually forecasting and/or those who get disproportionally emotionally invested in fantasy computer images (ie. the neurotic types), it might honestly make sense to not track storms and just enjoy what comes at a day-by-day level, save for a BOX discussion or two. Unless you have meaningful friends on this site, then the story changes. 

Just thinking out loud a little.

what you just said is the complete opposite of this site

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10 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Sometimes I wonder why we do all this fussing over anticipating an inevitable outcome. From an outsider's perspective, it's pretty irrational behavior.

For those who aren't meteorologists/ interested in actually forecasting and/or those who get disproportionally emotionally invested in fantasy computer images (ie. the neurotic types), it might honestly make sense to not track storms and just enjoy what comes at a day-by-day level, save for a BOX discussion or two. Unless you have meaningful friends on this site, then the story changes. 

Just thinking out loud a little.

Like when we were 6 years old, anything could happen no matter what they predicted it seems back then, I remember a lot of busts to the upside and downside when I was a kid, of course the busts to the upside were more fun.

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10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Last week when it(IVT)was forecast, it never happened, probably the same this time.  

Last week was less favorable. Moisture was really lacking aloft which is not the case this time. 

Most people will prob miss out in this but I do think it’s going to set up somewhere. 

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6 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Yeah, doesn't seem all that hot here despite the hysteria from some in SNE. No worse than a typical mid-March warm spell that softens things up for a few days.

I suspect you will outperform many of the people posting the most.

Outside of a few localized spots near the coast if there is an IVT (I have no idea, been busy at work tonight)

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Last week was less favorable. Moisture was really lacking aloft which is not the case this time. 

Most people will prob miss out in this but I do think it’s going to set up somewhere. 

I know they're hard to predict where but can you narrow it down to say a 50-100 miles radius by looking at the models?

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Just now, DavisStraight said:

I know they're hard to predict where but can you narrow it down to say a 50-100 miles radius by looking at the models?

You’re trying to find where the best low level convergence is because that is the primary forcing mechanism. Most guidance has been pretty consistent showing it somewhere between Portland ME area down to RI. The “natural” IVT looks like it wants to go over central/eastern SNE but S ME is always in the game because of the natural shape of the coast there which sort of promotes an IVT. 

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Last week was less favorable. Moisture was really lacking aloft which is not the case this time. 

Most people will prob miss out in this but I do think it’s going to set up somewhere. 

How often do you get *this* many model runs showing an IVT signature?  The location hasn’t been stable but the ingredients and presence of one somewhere has been there for many cycles.  Like days of model runs, it’s not a new feature.

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16 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I am in northern NH and I am talking about the pack season. I had a big storm in early December here but it was wiped out at Christmas. Our sustained pack didn't set in until January.

Oh right ok. Different region different rules.

And about snow pack…. global warming saddens me. They think by the 2050s they won’t get very much snow in the Sierra Nevada anymore and obviously California’s current population can’t survive without that water.

Meanwhile Southern New England’s climate will look more like Delaware, with significantly more thunderstorms and snow will be scant with only occasional major nor’easter snowstorms. 
 

I think Northern New England, especially mountains, will get good snowpack for a very long time to come 

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2 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

Oh right ok. Different region different rules.

And about snow pack…. global warming saddens me. They think by the 2050s they won’t get very much snow in the Sierra Nevada anymore and obviously California’s current population can’t survive without that water.

Meanwhile Southern New England’s climate will look more like Delaware, with significantly more thunderstorms and snow will be scant with only occasional major nor’easter snowstorms. 

Bro, stop with that absolute nonsense!  SNE  will still be getting plenty of snow long after you’re dead and gone, and me too.  And that’s a fact. 

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5 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

Oh right ok. Different region different rules.

And about snow pack…. global warming saddens me. They think by the 2050s they won’t get very much snow in the Sierra Nevada anymore and obviously California’s current population can’t survive without that water.

Meanwhile Southern New England’s climate will look more like Delaware, with significantly more thunderstorms and snow will be scant with only occasional major nor’easter snowstorms. 

I'm gonna sell the Sierra going from 400" to zero in the next 28 years...little dramatic

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