Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,275
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Chicago85
    Newest Member
    Chicago85
    Joined

Met Winter 2021 - 2022 Banter


HoarfrostHubb
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, that's a bigger concern in my mind.

Say goodbye to any new cars and phones.....no semiconductors. 

You know.....you do deals with the devils like getting a ton of energy from them (Russia to EU) and give them all your manufacturing (china).....they've got you by the cogliones and you're bound to get burned. Simple. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Markets of course keep falling , I think China needs to be watched very carefully right now 

credit markets and stock internals have been crap for weeks ..Russia just accelerated what was happening due to the federal reserve shifting gears and vocally saying they are ending printing in March (they will re-start at some point

I think the bigger issue .  If I was China and facing a rapidly slowing economy (thanks to its Main driver of decades worth of growth imploding ) ..its massive property sector ..(history shows powerful countries with fleeting  power become the most desperate to take risks ..it would be an opportune time to make a move on Taiwan and then you would see a potentially massive impact on global economy due to Taiwan housing by far the worlds largest semi conductor manufacturer (Russia -Ukraine’s is very minimal and just accelerates a market that’s been looking for a catalyst) and yes that’s beside the fact the Ukrainian population is in the Shiat either way now , which is very sad ..even if it seemed inevitable Putin would do this post Olympics 

The US is basically seen from the outside as having so many internal infighting Issue right now - splintered and preoccupied with infighting do to politics and their associated marketing points the devisive/provoking  political media is hyperfocused on Maximizing emotional responses out of their “teams”

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Markets of course keep falling , I think China needs to be watched very carefully right now 

credit markets and stock internals have been crap for weeks ..Russia just accelerated what was happening due to the federal reserve shifting gears and vocally saying they are ending printing in March (they will re-start at some point

I think the bigger issue .  If I was China and facing a rapidly slowing economy (thanks to its Main driver of decades worth of growth imploding ) ..its massive property sector ..(history shows powerful countries with fleeting  power become the most desperate to take risks ..it would be an opportune time to make a move on Taiwan and then you would see a potentially massive impact on global economy due to Taiwan housing by far the worlds largest semi conductor manufacturer (Russia -Ukraine’s is very minimal and just accelerates a market that’s been looking for a catalyst) and yes that’s beside the fact the Ukrainian population is in the Shiat either way now , which is very sad ..even if it seemed inevitable Putin would do this post Olympics 

China and Iran watching this very closely

They don't share the same immediate goals --- Russia renewed superpower status and territory and clout in eastern Europe, China control over Taiwan, Iran possessing nukes --- they share resistance to these goals in the West. If these 3 are not formally colluding at the moment, that will likely change in the years ahead.

And for worthy reasons of globalization and economic growth, we've crippled ourselves by outsourcing our energy (more so Europe), the chips that power everything, and most goods we use.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

China and Iran watching this very closely

They don't share the same immediate goals --- Russia renewed superpower status and territory and clout in eastern Europe, China control over Taiwan, Iran possessing nukes --- they share resistance to these goals in the West. If these 3 are not formally colluding at the moment, that will likely change in the years ahead.

And for worthy reasons of globalization and economic growth, we've crippled ourselves by outsourcing our energy (more so Europe), the chips that power everything, and most goods we use.

The chips are the ace card imo and something that would lead to a real war, at a time the global economy is in a asset bubble and weakening as inflations hurts consumers abilities..and Our asset bubble valuation of stocks / bonds/ housing it’s leaking air rapidly Regarding the stocks / bonds area ..the backdrop is set ..if China Decides to make a move on Taiwan (as the US seems preoccupied and divided by its hyper focus on political differences highlight 24/7! By the dedicated media whoring channels ) the taking of Taiwan and It’s monopoly as housing the worlds largest  chip supplier is getting to be a juicy opportunity of now or never . Especially given their weakening economic engine thanks to a imploding real estate sector (their engine for growth ) . History says ... countries like that often make risky moves 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The chips are the ace card imo and something that would lead to a real war, at a time the global economy is in a asset bubble and weakening as inflations hurts consumers abilities..and Our asset bubble valuation of stocks / bonds/ housing it’s leaking air rapidly Regarding the stocks / bonds area ..the backdrop is set ..if China Decides to make a move on Taiwan (as the US seems preoccupied and divided by its hyper focus on political differences highlight 24/7! By the dedicated media whoring channels ) the taking of Taiwan and It’s monopoly as housing the worlds largest  chip supplier is getting to be a juicy opportunity of now or never . Especially given their weakening economic engine thanks to a imploding real estate sector (their engine for growth ) . History says ... countries like that often make risky moves 

Agree it's a tempting time for China to act. Add to that the US is internally more polarized and lost than it has been in generations, 30T in debt, Fed out of stimulus bullets with growing inflation. Weak leadership.

I suspect Iran will inevitably be an interrelated thread. The Vienna deal negotiators are desperately hoping to sign will, imho, pretty much ensure they are a nuclear threshold state at the very least and will violently destabilize the mideast. Russia has boots on the ground in Syria, China is importing record amounts of oil from Iran, and all have interest in distracting the US with another mideast war.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This whole conflict. I need to understand it because I barely have time to watch the news. I know this goes back to 2014, but did those two Russian territories in the eastern Ukraine work with Russia to fabricate this genocide lie and give Russia a reason to invade? Just trying to understand the conflict.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think today is a solid day to cautiously buy calls if you were in market . As long as China behaves , The Russian attack takes Significant rate hikes Off the table for This year at a Time when the market is hugely over-sold . The fed is not going to hike rates much with global war uncertainty and already weakening economy and tanking stocks . 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Can someone explain it to me like I am 5. Why is Russia invading Ukraine?

Because they don't want Ukraine joining NATO or being too closely aligned with the West and because Putin wants to push the envelope because he thinks US/Western Europe are vulnerable and he can cause more strain on the relationship.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The chips are the ace card imo and something that would lead to a real war, at a time the global economy is in a asset bubble and weakening as inflations hurts consumers abilities..and Our asset bubble valuation of stocks / bonds/ housing it’s leaking air rapidly Regarding the stocks / bonds area ..the backdrop is set ..if China Decides to make a move on Taiwan (as the US seems preoccupied and divided by its hyper focus on political differences highlight 24/7! By the dedicated media whoring channels ) the taking of Taiwan and It’s monopoly as housing the worlds largest  chip supplier is getting to be a juicy opportunity of now or never . Especially given their weakening economic engine thanks to a imploding real estate sector (their engine for growth ) . History says ... countries like that often make risky moves 

If China goes into Taiwan the US needs to cut off all food / commodities exports to China.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

I worked for a company based in Taiwan and visited the country twice.  No doubt that China could successfully invade,  but lots of Chinese soldiers would die trying. It's not easy to invade an island. 

I think China would offer Taiwan the chance for a peaceful transition and the ability to become a "special economic zone" like Hong Kong. I think most Taiwanese would choose that over a fiery cataclysmic death in an invasion.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Oh, I know but commodities are the one way we can hurt them.  Although they could just sell all their US dad and cripple us. Lol

Meh, the whole debt weapon thing is overblown if you ask me. I mean, if they tried to dump a trillion in treasuries all at once they’d probably get 50 cents on the dollar, which I doubt they want. In a scenario where the US and China are at war, I’d have to imagine that treasuries would still be the preferred safe haven asset, so the demand would be deeper than normal. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The Europeans can't seem to gel around a second set of sanctions. Putin is going to get away with this relatively easily, it seems.

If the EU eventually allows Putin to get away with this, meaning he installs a puppet government and then we just go on and pretend nothing happened, he wins. The rest of the EU will fall, one by one. 

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think today is a solid day to cautiously buy calls if you were in market . As long as China behaves , The Russian attack takes Significant rate hikes Off the table for This year at a Time when the market is hugely over-sold . The fed is not going to hike rates much with global war uncertainty and already weakening economy and tanking stocks . 

The counterargument: 1) we have normalcy bias. We've already experienced the unimaginable the past 2 years, and this entire nation-state taking nation-state war was unthinkable for decades. 2) We are assuming these are transient jolts to our system. But Putin is now an irreversible rogue superpower head that we haven't had for decades. China taking Taiwan's chip makers will not be a short-lived shock. As you said, as long as China behaves.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 12/9/2021 at 9:55 PM, Supernovice said:

Gallows humor,  but laughing thinking about those saying it doesn’t snow in New England anymore…boy their tunes will change during the nuclear winter (summer) of 2022.

Just re-upping this so I can get a much needed laugh and say “I told you so”. What an awful few days with little sleep.

Dark day in history.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was just thinking of Japan when someone posted about it last night. 

I was thinking how Japan has some similarity to New England's winter climate... It is on the Northeast coast of a major continent, thus drawing cold continental air masses that come into contact with the ocean. 

But the obvious difference is that ocean effect snow, since New England is not broken off of the main continent like Japan.

New England is notoriously snowy compared to the rest of lower-elevation American continent since it features the maximum of the fetch of upwind cold air mass, meeting the ocean from where moisture is upwelling from the Southwest. Could you imagine if New England had a 100 or 200 mile stretch of ocean located where the state of New York is? Places like CT might not take the most advantage as they may be a little bit too far south and warm most of the time. But once you get up to a Maine latitude, or add a few thousand feet of elevation, all bets are off.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...