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December 2021


MJO812
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Final high temperatures:

Bismarck: 66° (old record: 62°, 1969) ***tied December record***
Denver: 73° (tied daily record set in 1973)
Glasgow, MT: 69° (old record: 62°, 1925) ***tied December record***
Great Falls: 69° (old record: 60°, 1907 and 1969) ***tied December record***
Helena: 70° (old record: 60°, 2008) ***new December record***
Kalispell, MT: 62° (old record: 54°, 1925) ***new December record***
Missoula, MT: 67° (old record: 55°, 1972) ***new December record***
Omak, WA: 74° (old record: 57°, 1949) ***new December record***
Phoenix: 85° (old record: 83°, 1949)
Rapid City: 74° (old record: 71°, 1973)
Sheridan, WY: 76° (old record: 71°, 1995)
Tucson: 85° (old record: 84°, 1926) ***tied December record***

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48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think that this wave break may be having a bigger influence. It eventually pumps the Aleutians Ridge. Then the -PNA trough digs into the Pacific Northwest boosting the Southeast Ridge during the 2nd week of December.


 

I get the impression that they're all related. Cumulatively amplifying the signal in that area. So we're seeing the amplified aleutian Ridge -PNA pattern like we are. Makes sense I think for the period. Could be aiding the +AO spike too for that time. 

gfs-ens_chi200_global_2.thumb.png.b82b4b75121fc96a01a3d06966791a5b.png

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5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Quick flights from Tokyo to L.A. at least. Plane likely barely uses any gas. 

I got to experience something like that. Flying to and from Vegas a little over a decade ago now. Record jet at that time. Took us 8 hrs to get there. Coming back to JFK 4 hrs. Was mind blowing to me back then lol

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8 minutes ago, PhenomIIX4 said:

To improve depressing moods ::: I expect snowstorms to start forming Jan-Feb 2022 classic Miller B-A or plain Miller A :::
Wet JAN (less than upcoming FEB) (FEB still WET on CFS wet signature (deep moisture) is a classic example of negative tilt somewhere down south). If we do not get a solid snowstorm to cool ocean down along the EC, next 2022 hurricane season might be something serious as usual. A 6-12in 12-18in (Likely/Unlikely? Not clear yet). CFS holds frigid air mass on continuous basis on recent runs.

EDIT: covering Central NJ on the statement above. However, following Northern SW Southern SW Digging South Jet Stream Orientation :: developing lows down GOM -NAO +PNA +AO +-EPO... CFS, GFS, ECMWF, CMC (GGEM), JMA, UKMET, ICON, NAM (IWM VER.) (32KM NAM, 12KM NAM, 3KM NAM) Short Range Models...

We need moisture.  November was less than an inch for most locales.  Other than the big October rainstorm it has been fairly dry since Ida on 9/1

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

I think that this wave break may be having a bigger influence. It eventually pumps the Aleutians Ridge. Then the -PNA trough digs into the Pacific Northwest boosting the Southeast Ridge during the 2nd week of December.


 

 

2001-02 may not be such a bad analog if it continues being snowless across the CONUS.  10% snowcover is one of the lowest on record at this point and TWC is making a big deal about not  naming  a winter storm this year, the latest by far that's happened.

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2 hours ago, EasternLI said:

I got to experience something like that. Flying to and from Vegas a little over a decade ago now. Record jet at that time. Took us 8 hrs to get there. Coming back to JFK 4 hrs. Was mind blowing to me back then lol

wait til we have SST again.  There's this company developing SST based on renewable fuel and nuclear fusion based spacecraft are in the works to reduce the travel time to Mars in half.

 

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No thread from myself yet for the 8th, but heading in right direction--especially just nw of I95. Graphics are: WPC 10% chance of 3"+, EPS snow depth increase in about 24 hours on the 8th, and GEFS as well. Just leery of further north, and would like GFS OP back on board, and keep the EC and GGEM on board. PTYPE might be a question as well. IF so, possible thread this eve or tomorrow morning but I'd like a little more consistency for a day 6-7 model forecast (06z/2 being the baseline here). Click graphics for greater clarity.  

Screen Shot 2021-12-02 at 5.31.48 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-12-02 at 5.40.31 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-12-02 at 5.40.55 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-12-02 at 5.42.37 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-12-02 at 5.42.51 AM.png

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy and unseasonably warm. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 56°

Newark: 59°

Philadelphia: 61°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 48.4°; 15-Year: 48.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 48.9°; 15-Year: 49.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 50.0°; 15-Year: 50.6°

Cooler air will return tomorrow.

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The first two days of December are verifying warmer than model forecasts. We are currently in the 50s for early in the morning. The model error with the fast Pacific flow and record Atlantic SSTs is too cool.

Regional Weather Roundup
National Weather Service New York NY
600 AM EST THU DEC 02 2021

Note: "FAIR" indicates few or no clouds below 12,000 feet with no
significant weather and/or obstructions to visibility.

NYZ071-072-176-178-NJZ106-104-021200-
New York City Metro Area

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Central Park   CLOUDY    52  47  83 VRB3      29.91F
World Trd Ctr  NOT AVBL
Bronx Lehman C   N/A     52  46  82 S6          N/A
LaGuardia Arpt CLOUDY    52  46  80 S9        29.88F
Queens College   N/A     52  48  87 S13         N/A
Kennedy Intl   MOCLDY    52  48  86 S14       29.90F
Breezy Point     N/A     52 N/A N/A S12         N/A
Brooklyn Coll    N/A     52  48  87 S10         N/A
Staten Island    N/A     50  46  87 S9          N/A
Newark/Liberty CLOUDY    50  46  86 S6        29.89F
Teterboro      DRIZZLE   49  46  90 SW5       29.88F
$$

NYZ177-179-078>081-021200-
Long Island New York

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Jones Beach      N/A     54 N/A N/A S13G18      N/A
Wantagh          N/A     54  50  87 S10         N/A
Hempstead      NOT AVBL
Matinecock Pt    N/A     50 N/A N/A S5          N/A
Farmingdale    PTCLDY    51  46  83 S12       29.90F
MacArthur/ISP  MOCLDY    51  45  79 SE12      29.89F
Stony Brook      N/A     50  45  81 S7          N/A
Shirley        PTCLDY    51  43  74 SE15      29.91F
Mt Sinai Harb    N/A     50 N/A N/A S10         N/A
Westhampton    PTCLDY    52  44  74 SE10G18   29.92F
East Hampton   CLOUDY    51  43  73 S12       29.92F
Southold         N/A     50  45  81 S13         N/A
Montauk          N/A     51  44  77 S7        29.95F
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The next 8 days are averaging  47degs.(40/54), or +7.

Reached 50* here yesterday.

Today: 55-58, wind s. to w., breezy late, m. cloudy-breaks.      GFS has one 32 in the next 17 days.     GFS loses the snow, EURO/CMC have it(Dec. 08---2").

53*(88%RH)here at 6am, street wet.{was 48 at Midnite}.    52* at 9am.     55* at Noon.       57* at 3pm.       55* at 10pm.      50* at 11pm.

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11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Final high temperatures:

Bismarck: 66° (old record: 62°, 1969) ***tied December record***
Denver: 73° (tied daily record set in 1973)
Glasgow, MT: 69° (old record: 62°, 1925) ***tied December record***
Great Falls: 69° (old record: 60°, 1907 and 1969) ***tied December record***
Helena: 70° (old record: 60°, 2008) ***new December record***
Kalispell, MT: 62° (old record: 54°, 1925) ***new December record***
Missoula, MT: 67° (old record: 55°, 1972) ***new December record***
Omak, WA: 74° (old record: 57°, 1949) ***new December record***
Phoenix: 85° (old record: 83°, 1949)
Rapid City: 74° (old record: 71°, 1973)
Sheridan, WY: 76° (old record: 71°, 1995)
Tucson: 85° (old record: 84°, 1926) ***tied December record***

Wow! To see that warmth into Montana in December…

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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

With the recent model runs correcting warmer for December, areas around NYC may be on track for another 40° or warmer December. A 40° December used to be a rarity before recent times. Now they are occurring more frequently.

 

4B019667-9AB2-49A5-9F30-F3ED59E8639A.thumb.png.2570fc2988e9c27a027abe326ec12462.png

CF86230F-1FD8-4B4E-808C-DC38DAAD531C.thumb.png.74d9b9575990f6050f8706a27a8dc5aa.png

5B75A7BD-0517-4EA0-A9BD-0518EB0E7248.thumb.png.4f62b91bc64c5ab342a7efdb92e5ca89.png

 

This is probably the strongest signal we’ve seen for a warm December since 2015

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5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is probably the strongest signal we’ve seen for a warm December since 2015

I guess it isn’t a surprise that December is the fastest warming winter month around the area. It’s like the seasons are getting pushed back. Summer into fall and fall into December. It was another top 5 or top 10 warmest fall for a large part of the country.
 

 

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