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December 2021


MJO812
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9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

December should no longer be considered a winter month, it only is because of lazy "met winter"......winter should only be measured as two months long now, January and February

 

I agree, December is about as transitional as March.

These types of super-torch winter patterns have been largely restricted to Eurasia, I was wondering when it’d be North America’s turn.

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33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those RMM charts probably won’t be a reliable indicator of the pattern in situations like this. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

A Pacific MJO event is likely to destructively interfere with La Niña, and there remains uncertainty as to whether the MJO will maintain an organized structure, as evidenced by large ensemble spread in the RMM forecasts through mid-December. Any coherence of the intraseasonal signal is more likely to be south of the equator.

So this has nothing to do with climate change because we do have a ton of cold air in Alaska and northern Canada.  We actually need more climate change to make it wintry down here, because when the Arctic warms up all that cold air is sent down here.  So if you guys want more wintry weather turn on your vehicles and idle them, thats the fastest way to get more CO2 into the atmosphere

 

/kidding lol

 

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The preliminary December 3 value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.144. The development of such high values during the December 1-10 period has often indicated that December will be warmer to much warmer than normal and that seasonal snowfall in the New York City area will be below to much below normal. There have been 7 such prior cases during the 1950-2020 period. Those cases are below.

image.png.e6ddf8fcc84df8e01bc6de7c3b8b16ba.png

 

 

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Apologies if this subject already covered (if so would appreciate a link) or if you think it should go into its own thread, but despite the dry November (1.12" 12th driest on record) at NYC, the year still passed three in total precip and now sits in 12th place. It will be interesting to see how many more years 2021 can pass before time runs out. The rest of the top 32 which would include the three years passed in the last thirty days and 17 others passed in the second half of October (of which 12 were passed in the October 26th 3.30" rainstorm after one on Oct 16th) are as follows (source, a data set that Don Sutherland sent me from which I derived annual and monthly totals, thanks again to Don for that, see climate change forum for a recent post in a thread I started there which catalogues much much more NYC and Toronto historical data with a link to a forum (net-weather UK) which has larger download capacity for the supporting excel files) ...

Rank __ YEAR ___ TOTAL PRECIP 

_ 01 ____ 1983 ____ 80.56"

_ 02 ____ 2011 ____ 72.81"

_ 03 ____ 1972 ____ 67.03"

_ 04 ____ 2018 ____ 65.55"

_ 05 ____ 1989 ____ 65.11"

_ 06 ____ 2007 ____ 61.67" (needs 3.29"to tie)

_ 07 ____ 1975 ____ 61.21" (needs 2.83" to tie)

_ 08 ____ 1990 ____ 60.92" (needs 2.64" to tie)

_ 09 ____ 2006 ____ 59.89" (needs 1.51" to tie)

_ 10 ____ 1903 ____ 58.52" (needs .14" to tie)

_ 11 ____ 2003 ____ 58.42" (needs .04" to tie)

 

_ 12 ____ 2021 ____ 58.38" (to Dec 2)

 

_ 13 ____ 1889 ____ 58.18" (passed Nov 22)

_ 14 ____ 1913 ____ 58.00" (passed Nov 13)

_ 15 ____ 1973 ____ 57.32" (passed Nov 12) 

_ 16 ____ 1984 ____ 57.03" (passed Oct 30)

_ 17 ____ 1971 ____ 56.77" (passed Oct 30)

_ 18 ____ 1996 ____ 56.19" (passed Oct 29 at .01")

_ 19 ____ 1927 ____ 56.06" (passed Oct 27 at .02")

_ 20 ____ 2005 ____ 55.97" (passed Oct 26 at 3.23")

_ 21 ____ 1975 _____ 54.73" (passed Oct 26 at 1.99")

_ 22 ____ 2014 ____ 53.79" (passed Oct 26 at 1.05")

_ 23 ____ 2009 ____ 53.62" (passed Oct 26 at .88") 

_ 24 ____ 2008 ____ 53.61" (passed Oct 26 at .87")

_ 25 ____ 1933 ____ 53.53" (passed Oct 26 at .79")

_ 26 ____ 1888 ____ 53.32" (passed Oct 26 at .58")

_ 27 ____ 1919 ____ 53.29" (passed Oct 26 at .55")

_ 28 ____ 1920 ____ 53.20" (passed Oct 26 at .46")

_ 29 ____ 2019 ____ 53.19" (passed Oct 26 at .45")

_ 30 ____ 1937 ____ 52.97" (passed Oct 26 at .23")

_ 31 ____ 1902 ____ 52.77" (passed Oct 26 at .03")

_ 32 ____ 1884 ____ 52.25" (passed Oct 16)

_____________________________________________________________

Note that the large majority of these wet years are recent, only eleven were before 1950 including all four of 25th to 28th place as well as 30th to 32nd, in a period of record dating back to 1869. Another ten were in the period 1971-2000 and eleven more 2001-2021. 

At the end of September 2021 was ranked 33rd wettest so it passed 18 years in October to become 15th wettest after October. This year had 52.74" when the Oct 26 rainstorm began and 56.04" when it ended, and it moved from 31st to 19th place during that day. It took down four more during additional rainfalls Oct 27th to 31st. It passed three more in November despite the low rainfall total which included a dry spell Nov 1-10. Looks like it could pass four or five more years and finish around 6th to 8th. The top five appear fairly safe. 

 

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48 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The preliminary December 3 value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.144.

Yeah, the amplitude of the December AO has gone way up since 2000. We seem to be getting more total December AO days above +3 and below -3. So some very impressive swings from year to year. 
 

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii

Total December AO days +3 or above and -3 or below

2000….-3….11 days 

2001….-3…..2 days

2004….+3….2 days

2005....-3…..3 days

2006….-3…..8 days

2009….-3….21 days

2010….-3….11 days

2011….+3…..9 days

2012….-3…..4 days

2013….+3….5 days

2015…..+3….3 days

2016….+3…..4 days

2019….+3…..1 day

2020….-3……1 day

2021……+3….1 day so far

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3 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Just as long as the best doesn't include the person from central PA, where we live in a fantasy land of cooling despite all the evidence to the contrary. What is a warminista? 

Not JB lol

I don't really follow him and Henry M like I did in the past.

I use to watch Henry M's videos all the time. 

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Don't worry

Our 1st snow threat might be days away. Enjoy tracking

If not then I will eat crow and admit it.

I wouldn’t get excited for anything here unless we see more blocking and a strong high to force any low to track south of us. I guess there could be an hour or two of snow/mix before rain near the coast. SWFE setups are rarely good for us. I-84 corridor and up into New England different story. 

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4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I wouldn’t get excited for anything here unless we see more blocking and a strong high to force any low to track south of us. I guess there could be an hour or two of snow/mix before rain near the coast. SWFE setups are rarely good for us. I-84 corridor and up into New England different story. 

They don't and they usually favor SNE but it's not really a SWFE. Like EastonSN+ mentioned , this is a wave along the front . The stronger the cutter is before that the better this wave will be for us.

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