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December 2021


MJO812
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Just a couple of images from the 06z EC. IGNORE the ICE northern MA as that has already occurred.  

By the way,  12z HRRR has a period of sleet for NYC/LI Monday evening and its 2m temps tend to be constantly  too warm in my estimation.  So i very much like what was placed on the nw-ne suburbs thread at 730A.  What i may do is start an OBS -NOWCAST thread for our area Monday morning if it still looks promising that sleet occurs for a few minutes NYC-LI. 

Note the 18z Monday picture of snow crabbing into out interior (06z/26 EC), and the total freezing rain expectation of the 06z/26 EC op model by daybreak Tuesday.  Images courtesy Weather Models.com and the EC  Centre.

Screen Shot 2021-12-26 at 8.45.30 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-12-26 at 8.46.43 AM.png

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The last 6 days of December are averaging  42degs.(38/47),or +8>>>+5 nowadays.

Month to date is  43.7[+3.9].    December should end at  43.3[+4.2].

Reached 53 here yesterday.

Today:  47-49, wind nw. and breezy, m. clear.

First 10 days of January maybe as low as 25/35 = 30, but the runs are completely erratic.

47*(67%RH) here at 6am.    45* at 8am.      50* at 2pm.

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NAM has been trying this for a few cycles... a second batch of precip mostly snow-sleet later Tue.  12z cycle does interest me... presuming it's mid level FGEN Tuesday.  

Monday WAA looks period of snow or sleet to ice (widespread) to me from Allentown northeastward to NYC-LI Monday afternoon-eve with probably no glaze NYC-LI. Of interest to me is cooling BL temps on the 12z//26 NAM through most of the cycle. Where it is trying to warm NYC...a south BL wind in precip of 10 knots or less is not going to yield the forecast temp during the precip (it will end up cooler). 

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45 minutes ago, wdrag said:

NAM has been trying this for a few cycles... a second batch of precip mostly snow-sleet later Tue.  12z cycle does interest me... presuming it's mid level FGEN Tuesday.  

Monday WAA looks period of snow or sleet to ice (widespread) to me from Allentown northeastward to NYC-LI Monday afternoon-eve with probably no glaze NYC-LI. Of interest to me is cooling BL temps on the 12z//26 NAM through most of the cycle. Where it is trying to warm NYC...a south BL wind in precip of 10 knots or less is not going to yield the forecast temp during the precip (it will end up cooler). 

Thanks, like reading your updates and input.

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EC will be my tipping point to begin a thread for mixed wintry precip episode #1 Mon afternoon-early night.  IF the soon to arrive EC is more bullish, will begin the thread. I have a number of graphics ready to go. 

 

As for late Tuesday-early Tuesday night: Indeed significant mid level FGEN.  IFFFF this NAM portrayal (see two attached screen shots for 10PM Tuesday) is anywhere close, it's going to be an interesting 3-6 hr period of snow that could fall at an inch an hour rate for a short time across the I84 corridor. See FGEN as modeled by the colder than most all other models NAM.  Something to keep in mind as the NAM has been locked onto this idea for several cycles. I can see the Global models being too far north.  

Still 44/29 here in Wantage at 1PM Sunday so am still a little worried model BL is forecast too cold on Monday but will monitor trends. 

Screen Shot 2021-12-26 at 12.22.43 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-12-26 at 12.24.04 PM.png

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40 minutes ago, wdrag said:

EC will be my tipping point to begin a thread for mixed wintry precip episode #1 Mon afternoon-early night.  IF the soon to arrive EC is more bullish, will begin the thread. I have a number of graphics ready to go. 

 

As for late Tuesday-early Tuesday night: Indeed significant mid level FGEN.  IFFFF this NAM portrayal (see two attached screen shots for 10PM Tuesday) is anywhere close, it's going to be an interesting 3-6 hr period of snow that could fall at an inch an hour rate for a short time across the I84 corridor. See FGEN as modeled by the colder than most all other models NAM.  Something to keep in mind as the NAM has been locked onto this idea for several cycles. I can see the Global models being too far north.  

Still 44/29 here in Wantage at 1PM Sunday so am still a little worried model BL is forecast too cold on Monday but will monitor trends. 

Screen Shot 2021-12-26 at 12.22.43 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-12-26 at 12.24.04 PM.png

12z/26 EC doesn't show the eastward progression that I expect. It could be too conservative. Am waiting out a thread. 

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44 minutes ago, wdrag said:

EC will be my tipping point to begin a thread for mixed wintry precip episode #1 Mon afternoon-early night.  IF the soon to arrive EC is more bullish, will begin the thread. I have a number of graphics ready to go. 

 

As for late Tuesday-early Tuesday night: Indeed significant mid level FGEN.  IFFFF this NAM portrayal (see two attached screen shots for 10PM Tuesday) is anywhere close, it's going to be an interesting 3-6 hr period of snow that could fall at an inch an hour rate for a short time across the I84 corridor. See FGEN as modeled by the colder than most all other models NAM.  Something to keep in mind as the NAM has been locked onto this idea for several cycles. I can see the Global models being too far north.  

Still 44/29 here in Wantage at 1PM Sunday so am still a little worried model BL is forecast too cold on Monday but will monitor trends. 

Screen Shot 2021-12-26 at 12.22.43 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-12-26 at 12.24.04 PM.png

Don’t see any threat on any of these, maybe some light rain or drizzle

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1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Stop trolling Walt

Thank you. With zero to back it up. We need the few good posters left or this board is shot. 

Walt, keep up excellent informative posts. Real meteorology vs. agenda biased modelology.

frozen may be a stretch for the coast, but this board includes areas inland and elevated enough to be in the game 

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4 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Don’t see any threat on any of these, maybe some light rain or drizzle

I respectfully disagree...  GFS is coming around on both episodes as is the RGEM.  No time right now for thread.  Will look at more data and probably start it at 9P tonight. I think NYC will see a little sleet Monday evening while freezing rain is within 15 miles of the city.  The ice probably won't be a hazard except untreated surfaces, which is where stepping outside unaware becomes a problem. 

Tuesday evening is looking a bit more potent along the NYS/PA border to portions of the I84 corridor and I think that FGEN has a good chance of working some surprises. 

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More ridiculous December heat for the next 5 days will give DFW the warmest December on record by a wide margin.


F4ADBC00-B177-4D09-87DF-8743BEBEF0F8.thumb.jpeg.8a06e75d4cf150cf59cc4693023cab30.jpeg

Time Series Summary for Dallas-Fort Worth Area, TX (ThreadEx) - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2021 60.2 6
2 1933 54.0 0
3 2015 53.6 0
4 1970 53.5 0
5 1965 52.8 0
- 1939 52.8 0

 

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26 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Looks like almost no lake effect so far this year. 

 

3 minutes ago, WeatherFox said:

Yes, including a number of zero cities and trace cities..

Yeah, lake effect has been very minimal the past couple years. This year's deficit is about the same as last year's at this time. With barely any cold air moving over the warm lakes, we continue to fall farther behind our averages. The lakes are also several degrees (in general) warmer than average. If we can get some good cold air combined with a nice moisture feed over those warm waters, we could quickly erase those deficits. Many of us Upstate weenies are certainly hoping for that!

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13 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

 

Yeah, lake effect has been very minimal the past couple years. This year's deficit is about the same as last year's at this time. With barely any cold air moving over the warm lakes, we continue to fall farther behind our averages. The lakes are also several degrees (in general) warmer than average. If we can get some good cold air combined with a nice moisture feed over those warm waters, we could quickly erase those deficits. Many of us Upstate weenies are certainly hoping for that!

Good luck!

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17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

More ridiculous December heat for the next 5 days will give DFW the warmest December on record by a wide margin.


F4ADBC00-B177-4D09-87DF-8743BEBEF0F8.thumb.jpeg.8a06e75d4cf150cf59cc4693023cab30.jpeg

Time Series Summary for Dallas-Fort Worth Area, TX (ThreadEx) - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2021 60.2 6
2 1933 54.0 0
3 2015 53.6 0
4 1970 53.5 0
5 1965 52.8 0
- 1939 52.8 0

 

I look at that map and see a recipe for an ugly severe event. 

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35 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

 

Yeah, lake effect has been very minimal the past couple years. This year's deficit is about the same as last year's at this time. With barely any cold air moving over the warm lakes, we continue to fall farther behind our averages. The lakes are also several degrees (in general) warmer than average. If we can get some good cold air combined with a nice moisture feed over those warm waters, we could quickly erase those deficits. Many of us Upstate weenies are certainly hoping for that!

Maybe in about a weeks time.

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