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November Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

12z was nice at Wildcat. 

Yeah Friday event is big for NW facing slopes, Monday event per GFS would be great for Wildcat. Ample cold weather to follow, could actually be a good start to ski season for once.

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A few inches to whiten the landscape would be nice. Last few winters have been mostly front end stuff before things fizzled later on in the winter. Haven't cracked 45" since at least 2017-18. If it weren't for the February snow storm this past winter would have followed suit. Rather ramp up gradually, peak mid-winter and ramp down (in April ;)). 

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41 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

Pretty decent shift north. Not far off from being interesting all the way to SNE but need that vort to dig a little more and pop sooner. 

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh120_trend.gif

Yeah...

Thing is, it's a specter ( I've noticed - ) that began to really emerge on that transition from 12z yesterday, comparing to the ensuing 18z run ... There was a bodily shift in the total synoptic manifold of the flow structure that back-ward dug the S/W back SW along the isohypses, just enough to make one wonder if a trend was in play.  00z run comes out and it's nukey - 

Then the 06z backs away slightly but still delivers...now this?

Seems if there is a legit signal in here, ( for one ) the models are sruggling with it - duh. But it may be that it's real but 'newish' in latching on so a few unstable runs?    I guess more of a forecast philosophy of approach.  but yeah, storm forming would benefit from more 00z'esque

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There's two pieces of energy diving in from the plains...the northern piece digging more is associated with the bigger solutions. It's really obvious on the Ukie, the older GFS runs and actually the 84h NAM at 12z looks like those bigger runs.

The weaker runs have the energy more separated...particularly the northern piece is not digging as much in those weaker solutions.

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The surface pressure/QPF evolution is still dandy in my 'preferential' perspective.  Heh.  I just mean, on November 24, a 120+ hour model look like that ...I'll take it.  Entertaining enough.

It would have been ( and may yet be gosh forbid ) far worse if the run dump the look altogether.  This still fits inside 'noise expectation.'  The differences between 00z and 12z are easily correcting toward either solution.   I just wonder if/when consensus hints at emerging -

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This could end up a river east deal in SNE

You can also end up a river West thing, could also end up Northern New England, could also end up Eastern New England. The point is it is only Wednesday. How many years have we been coming on this forum.. and how many times do the models change when it's 5 days out. I've learned a long time ago to be optimistic, but cautious when it's 5 days out. Sometimes it works out in our favor and sometimes it doesn't.

Put your lips on that lol

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49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's two pieces of energy diving in from the plains...the northern piece digging more is associated with the bigger solutions. It's really obvious on the Ukie, the older GFS runs and actually the 84h NAM at 12z looks like those bigger runs.

The weaker runs have the energy more separated...particularly the northern piece is not digging as much in those weaker solutions.

Ensembles concur. Lots of sensitivity to that particular shortwave. It's almost traceable back to initialization today south of the Aleutians.

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13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Ensembles concur. Lots of sensitivity to that particular shortwave. It's almost traceable back to initialization today south of the Aleutians.

Yup and I'm noticing that the GFS is sort of on-off with amount of constructive interference - 'sensitivity' you mention seems related to how proficient that intermediary phase-space is, which is also in part guided by the wave strength in the atmosphere as those two interact.  If the lead piece is boss, we end up 12z ish... Lag is boss, perhaps more 00z like.   I mean I'm just comparing the last several cycles.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What the hell is going on with the Euro? Looks like it's going to phase all 3 shortwaves this run...or at least try. No other run tries to phase in the lagging southern stream s/w in the southwest US.

Ha this might be a good one, Partial phase anyways it seems   lol

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What the hell is going on with the Euro? Looks like it's going to phase all 3 shortwaves this run...or at least try. No other run tries to phase in the lagging southern stream s/w in the southwest US.

That will nuke.

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