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October 2021


Stormlover74
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I'm 65 miles northwest of NYC. Isn't seasonal for me in the 60's/30's this time of year? Despite recent trends, of course.

I remember some downright cold nights in mid September back during the 90's. 20's?

Currently 44 with 96% humidity, and all of these warm/wet days ahead.

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and noticeably warmer. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 74°

Newark: 78°

Philadelphia: 77°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 69.8°; 15-Year: 71.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 71.4°; 15-Year: 72.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 72.6°; 15-Year: 73.9°

Tomorrow will be another very warm day.

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The next 8 days are averaging 70degs.(64/76), or +7.

Kiss BN T's goodbye for two weeks.

1633132800-tSkasn3Wiuo.png

EURO still with 3x the rain of the GFS each run, for the next 10 days.

Reached 70 here yesterday.

Today: 72-76, w. wind, m. sunny.

57*(72%RH) here at 6am, m. clear-cirrus.       60* at 9am.        68* at Noon.       70* at 1pm.      72* at 3pm.        Reached 76* at 4:30pm.

 

 

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Monitoring for a wet start and end to the week, with driest-rainfree odds strongest Wed-Thu. Overall the easy morning WPC 7 day qpf looks decent.  Won't rule out spotty week long 5-7" amounts by Sunday evening in the NYC suforum. For now, consider it routine..am monitoring for the heavier amounts but not convinced enough for a thread. 00z/2 EPS is much wetter than the 00z/2 GEFS which has been constantly drier than the EPS. 

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October has been one of our fastest rising temperature months of the fall along with September. The area just experienced the warmest October on record back in 2017. The highest monthly maximum temperature record was set in 2019 with the flash drought and mid 90s. It’s also interesting that most 60° Octobers have been La Ninas.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
ENSO           
  2017 63.8 La Niña
  2007 63.5 La Niña
  1971 63.1 La Niña
  1990 62.4 Neutral
  1984 62.2 La Niña
  1949 61.6 La Niña
  1963 61.2 El Niño
  1995 61.0 La Niña
  1947 61.0 Neutral
  2019 60.4 Neutral
  1954 60.4 La Niña
  1973 60.3 La Niña
  1946 60.0 El Niño

 

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Yesterday may have been a good example what the foliage in Central Park does to its temperatures. Keeps day time highs lower and night time lows higher. With good radiational cooling last night Newark got down to the low 50s while Central Park stayed in the high 50s. Meanwhile yesterdays highs were the low 70s in Newark and upper 60s in Central Park.

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48 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Yesterday may have been a good example what the foliage in Central Park does to its temperatures. Keeps day time highs lower and night time lows higher. With good radiational cooling last night Newark got down to the low 50s while Central Park stayed in the high 50s. Meanwhile yesterdays highs were the low 70s in Newark and upper 60s in Central Park.

The minimum at NYC was lower than EWR and LGA. But you can see the deep shade shaving at least 3°off the high temperature. The high temperature on the Great Lawn in Central Park was probably around 70°instead of 67° in the deep shade near the castle. 
 

LGA………….…....70/54

NYC………………..67/51

JFK………………...70/50

EWR………………..72/52

FRG…………………68/49

ISP………..……...…68/49

Brownsville …….73/54

Ozone Park……..71/52

 

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Down to 43 and on the way to another gorgeous weekend (4 in a row) with mostly sunny and near 80.  Tomorrow the warmest day of the week with low 80s likely.  Hung up pattern with ULL closing off and heading to Gulf coast. 

Ridge over the top pushes onshore or southerly (humid flow) this week, perhaps pushing dewpoints near 70 at times..  Clouds in the way from higher daytime maxes but nighttime lows in the 60s for a bunch of the week.  Some rain / storms likely Tuesday otherwise only scattered showers the rest of the work week.   

Next weekend Fri (10/8) looks to continue a bit unsettled and perhaps spoil the chance for 5 in a row spectacular weekends, before the ridge builds east by Mon (10/11).  Models may present chance for late season 80s, especially in the warmer spots towards mid month Mon (10/11) - Fri (10/16).

 

Overall looking warmer than normal.

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11 hours ago, lee59 said:

On clear chilly nights with no wind, the difference in temperatures can be impressive. Not only the difference between city and rural but even where a temperature sensor is located. For example, I have a vantage vue located about 20 ft. off the ground and the temperature is 54. About 30 feet away is a vantage pro sensor 6 ft. off the ground, which is what the NWS says is the correct height, and that reading is 51.

Cool air sinks…

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The minimum at NYC was lower than EWR and LGA. But you can see the deep shade shaving at least 3°off the high temperature. The high temperature on the Great Lawn in Central Park was probably around 70°instead of 67° in the deep shade near the castle. 
 

LGA………….…....70/54

NYC………………..67/51

JFK………………...70/50

EWR………………..72/52

FRG…………………68/49

ISP………..……...…68/49

Brownsville …….73/54

Ozone Park……..71/52

 

I didn't make myself clear. I meant last nights low, not the day before. 

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16 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Could be some good swells at the beaches, maybe some overwash.

Big swell periods 17 seconds are just starting to show on the offshore buoys. It’s the period that matters most for washovers. Anything over 14 seconds but especially 17 seconds. They contain the most energy and are moving the fastest, kinds like mini tsunamis. 

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14 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Very scary stuff. The warming is accelerating so quickly. 

It's only a matter of time till these anomalies arrive in July. 

The Pacific Northwest dealt with such extremes at the end of June. Maybe this decade will see an extreme heat outbreak here. It will even be scorching hot under the dense foliage at Central Park.

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4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The Pacific Northwest dealt with such extremes at the end of June. Maybe this decade will see an extreme heat outbreak here. It will even be scorching hot under the dense foliage at Central Park.

Ironically, our humidity that’s coming with the warming is working again the extreme temperatures.

 

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