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October 2021


Stormlover74
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Down to 44 last night and can see a 35 - 40 degree swing by Sunday afternoon.  Cool waning and the warmup is underway starting tomorrow (Sat (10/2). Chance of 80s in the warmer spot and then more widespread 80 to low 80s on Sunday (10/3).  Record highs Sunday at EWR is 85 but i think they will fall short.  Warmer overall, but cloudy and at times wet the next work week on (10/4) through mch of the work week.  Pending on clouds Monday more chances for 80s.  Onshore to humid southerly flow as well next week.  Models a bit less emphatic wirh ridging by the week of the 11th but overall warmer than normal looks likely into mid month.  Watch for sneaky low or tropical system in the 10/10 - 10/12 period along the coast, first noreaster?

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Only the third time that ISP had the first 40s of the season as late as October. The other two years were 2015 and 2018. The low of 53 before midnight yesterday was also the warmest September monthly minimum temperature.

 

First/Last Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
2018 06-12 (2018) 48 10-12 (2018) 49 121
2015 05-23 (2015) 48 10-02 (2015) 49 131
2003 06-03 (2003) 48 09-30 (2003) 45 118
2002 06-08 (2002) 46 09-29 (2002) 49 112
1970 05-31 (1970) 48 09-29 (1970) 46 120
1980 06-12 (1980) 47 09-27 (1980) 48 106
2016 05-23 (2016) 49 09-25 (2016) 48 124
2005 05-28 (2005) 48 09-25 (2005) 49 119
1987 06-07 (1987) 49 09-25 (1987) 42 109
2014 06-01 (2014) 49 09-23 (2014) 45 113
1998 06-10 (1998) 47 09-23 (1998) 44 104
1974 05-28 (1974) 42 09-23 (1974) 46 117
1976 06-13 (1976) 49 09-22 (1976) 46 100
2008 05-30 (2008) 47 09-21 (2008) 48 113
1981 06-08 (1981) 47 09-21 (1981) 47 104
2004 05-30 (2004) 41 09-20 (2004) 49 112


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2021 53 0
2 2015 52 0
3 2018 51 0

i appreciate you putting our brief cooldowns into context

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2 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Little early to throw in the towel on October guys. What is it 9 hours old?

Might I add, with glee, that forecasts of extreme warmth through a colder month on this sub forum have been notoriously wrong and usually covered up with “the weeklies changed overnight” posts.

54F at 9am.

47F in SLC at 7 am✈️

a top ten warm september area wide is a colder month? lol

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23 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i appreciate you putting our brief cooldowns into context

Sure. It’s getting to the point that we need extreme blocking even for a brief cooldown. The nearly 5sd block over that part of Canada looks like a new record for this time of year. But it builds quickly southward and merges with the SE Ridge for a quick warm up. My guess is that the models continue this warmer ridge well into October since it’s part of the La Niña forcing pattern. But even for a La Niña pattern in October, this ridge is on the extreme side as we have been seeing with the 500 mb patterns. 
 

 

9717CC1D-510B-4362-89F0-39F1ECD2A8B2.png.7468e826443afdc3a1ddbcd73cbec85a.png
F31ABA86-9CBD-4C53-BB0A-C1AAA3839E5B.thumb.png.c53e51dfe75dc25ac1e5a5ada49f543d.png

2BA472FE-A316-4D23-95FC-8C4BD3D4F351.thumb.png.5a5aa994094a796badf56a8cf3c50191.png

 

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The 70° at Newark yesterday and today is in line with the warmer spots in the 5 Boroughs of NYC. The NYC micronet is a great addition to our urban observations. Notice how there were several 70° highs yesterday. Ozone Park is currently at 70° this afternoon. 
 

https://www2.nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc


9-30 highs…

Bensonhurst / Mapleton 70
Brownsville 70

Highs so far today

Lefferts / South Ozone Park
Temp: 70°F
3h Precip: 0.00″

 

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After a chilly start that saw temperatures tumble into the lower 50s in Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City and 40s outside the cities with the coldest locations bottoming out in the 30s, the afternoon warmed into the middle and upper 60s in most areas.

Newark's record-breaking streak with high temperatures of 70° or above increased to 124 consecutive days. The previous record was 119 days, which was set in 2008. Since Newark first recorded 90 or more such days back in 1900, the record has increased by no more than 7 days over the prior mark. That margin could be surpassed this year.

Tomorrow and Sunday will be unseasonably warm days with temperatures rising well into the 70s. The warm regime will continue next week. However, there is a chance of a significant rain event late in the week.

Bismarck could have one of its 5 warmest opening weeks in October. Overall, the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas appear to be in line with a warmer to much warmer than normal October (a general 2°-4° above normal). New York City could have an October mean temperature of 60° or above.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely yield to La Niña conditions this month.

The SOI was +10.76 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.149 today.

On September 29 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.409 (RMM). The September 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.427 (RMM).

 

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15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

After a chilly start that saw temperatures tumble into the lower 50s in Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City and 40s outside the cities with the coldest locations bottoming out in the 30s, the afternoon warmed into the middle and upper 60s in most areas.

Newark's record-breaking streak with high temperatures of 70° or above increased to 124 consecutive days. The previous record was 119 days, which was set in 2008. Since Newark first recorded 90 or more such days back in 1900, the record has increased by no more than 7 days over the prior mark. That margin could be surpassed this year.

Tomorrow and Sunday will be unseasonably warm days with temperatures rising well into the 70s. The warm regime will continue next week. However, there is a chance of a significant rain event late in the week.

Bismarck could have one of its 5 warmest opening weeks in October. Overall, the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas appear to be in line with a warmer to much warmer than normal October (a general 2°-4° above normal). New York City could have an October mean temperature of 60° or above.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely yield to La Niña conditions this month.

The SOI was +10.76 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.149 today.

On September 29 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.409 (RMM). The September 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.427 (RMM).

 

Don,

 Check this 12Z EPS 2M anomaly map out for the first half of October: this would be about as warm as it has ever been on record for the eastern 3/4 of the US overall.  These temps would be normal for the first half of Sept! The 12Z GEFS and GEPS are similar.

 At NYC, this implies a first half of Oct that is 10+ warmer than normal when taking into account a 3 F cold bias there over the last month, which means that temps would be near their normal for Sept 1-15:

 1772282812_ecmen_12_2mtpdp_na_dr-0015_0015(1).png.154f6c4e177e3b9a5cfd9d154ade22b5.png

 

 

 

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What a fantastic stretch of weather Coming up the 1st half of October temp wise.  Seventies by day around 60゚ at night you can still wear shorts and do any outdoor activity do not have to put on the AC or the heater.  I'll take this any October let it last through mid November.  Obviously the days it rains it will be cooler but it will not rain every day the 1st half of October

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1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Don,

 Check this 12Z EPS 2M anomaly map out for the first half of October: this would be about as warm as it has ever been on record for the eastern 3/4 of the US overall.  These temps would be normal for the first half of Sept! The 12Z GEFS and GEPS are similar.

 At NYC, this implies a first half of Oct that is 10+ warmer than normal when taking into account a 3 F cold bias there over the last month, which means that temps would be near their normal for Sept 1-15:

 1772282812_ecmen_12_2mtpdp_na_dr-0015_0015(1).png.154f6c4e177e3b9a5cfd9d154ade22b5.png

 

 

 

It’s really impressive. It’s one of the warmer runs relative to normal over an extended period that I have seen since December 2015.

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8 hours ago, forkyfork said:

a top ten warm september area wide is a colder month? lol

 

Where did I mention September?

I’m talking about the posters calling off winter two days into January. “No snow this December” as the turkey is cooling off.

Frankly, after years of being on this forum, the technology isn’t there to predict whether or temperature trends three weeks out…and anyone that posts gospel based on weeklies is sensationalist or ill-informed.

Dont call off October on 10/1 based on weeklies that can and will change tomorrow

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1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Don,

 Check this 12Z EPS 2M anomaly map out for the first half of October: this would be about as warm as it has ever been on record for the eastern 3/4 of the US overall.  These temps would be normal for the first half of Sept! The 12Z GEFS and GEPS are similar.

 At NYC, this implies a first half of Oct that is 10+ warmer than normal when taking into account a 3 F cold bias there over the last month, which means that temps would be near their normal for Sept 1-15:

 1772282812_ecmen_12_2mtpdp_na_dr-0015_0015(1).png.154f6c4e177e3b9a5cfd9d154ade22b5.png

 

 

 

my pool is still open and the family might get in some late season swimming...closing date is Oct 14th...I picked the date...;)

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6 hours ago, nycwinter said:

the other day newark was 70 and the only place that was close to newark was philly which was 68.. it shows newark temps are not accurate ...

New Brnswck was 69 and many CNJ/NE-NJ were 68-71

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It’s really impressive. It’s one of the warmer runs relative to normal over an extended period that I have seen since December 2015.

Very scary stuff. The warming is accelerating so quickly. 

It's only a matter of time till these anomalies arrive in July. 

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On clear chilly nights with no wind, the difference in temperatures can be impressive. Not only the difference between city and rural but even where a temperature sensor is located. For example, I have a vantage vue located about 20 ft. off the ground and the temperature is 54. About 30 feet away is a vantage pro sensor 6 ft. off the ground, which is what the NWS says is the correct height, and that reading is 51.

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6 minutes ago, lee59 said:

On clear chilly nights with no wind, the difference in temperatures can be impressive. Not only the difference between city and rural but even where a temperature sensor is located. For example, I have a vantage vue located about 20 ft. off the ground and the temperature is 54. About 30 feet away is a vantage pro sensor 6 ft. off the ground, which is what the NWS says is the correct height, and that reading is 51.

Yeah radiational cooling allows the outer suburbs to drop very quickly.

On a muggy night in July, the heat island will still make it warmer in the city than imby, but sometimes not by much.  Cool nights like this however I'm easily 10-15+ degrees less than the park.

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2 hours ago, lee59 said:

On clear chilly nights with no wind, the difference in temperatures can be impressive. Not only the difference between city and rural but even where a temperature sensor is located. For example, I have a vantage vue located about 20 ft. off the ground and the temperature is 54. About 30 feet away is a vantage pro sensor 6 ft. off the ground, which is what the NWS says is the correct height, and that reading is 51.

I will be honest with you.  Last night I was uncomfortable.  That was too cold for me.  And it was around 50 here.  It got to 38 at Westhampton I think?  Anyway my tolerance for cold weather is low this time of year.  I want temps in the mid 70s for highs and around 60 or upper 50s for lows.  Last night was just too cold for me and this morning it was literally painful for me to walk on my floors because they were so cold. The tiled parts anyway.

 

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5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It’s really impressive. It’s one of the warmer runs relative to normal over an extended period that I have seen since December 2015.

I'm all for it, Don.  Last night was way too cold for me and I was miserable this morning.  I think a lot of people actually want warmer falls-- which is one reason why ACC can't get much traction, because a lot of people actually want a warmer climate.

 

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6 hours ago, binbisso said:

What a fantastic stretch of weather Coming up the 1st half of October temp wise.  Seventies by day around 60゚ at night you can still wear shorts and do any outdoor activity do not have to put on the AC or the heater.  I'll take this any October let it last through mid November.  Obviously the days it rains it will be cooler but it will not rain every day the 1st half of October

This is exactly how I feel....I dont want cold weather until winter

75 by day and 60 by night is ideal

 

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