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October 2021


Stormlover74
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It was mostly cloudy but still unseasonably mild for the season. Many locations saw the temperature reach or exceed 70°. Newark reached 70° for the 167th time this year. As a result, 2021 is now tied with 1995 and 2012 for the 9th most days on record.

In the Northern Plains, heavy rain fell in parts of North Dakota. Through 7 pm CDT, Bismarck had picked up 1.38" of rain. That surpassed the October 13 daily record of 0.97", which had been set in 1940. This is the second largest daily rainfall on record for October. It was also the second day this month with 1" or more rainfall. That ties the October record of two such days. That record was set in 1994 and tied in 2013. Moreover, 2021 is the only year in which two top-10 daily rainfalls occurred in the same year. Records go back to 1874.

In addition, Bismarck has yet to experience its first freeze of the season. The latest first freeze on record occurred on October 14, 2008.

Tomorrow will become noticeably warmer as ample sunshine returns. Friday could see the temperature approach or reach 80° in many parts of the region. Saturday will be another very warm day, but some showers and even a thundershower are possible as a strong cold front moves across the region. Behind the frontal passage, readings will return to near normal levels.

The MJO is currently passing through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around October 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely yield to La Niña conditions later this month.

The SOI was +14.50 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.207 today.

On October 11 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.179 (RMM). The October 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.866 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.9° (4.0° above normal).

 

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58 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

@bluewave marginal for now, have to see if they upgrade to a slight risk as we move closer.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

 

day3otlk_0730.gif

Lots of wind in the profile...  no thread from myself at this time. will rereview early Fri.  Instability acceptable but not exceptional. My guess is isolated svr I95 northwestward.  Will recheck Friday. 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly cloudy and very warm. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 75°

Newark: 79°

Philadelphia: 78°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 65.1°; 15-Year: 66.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 66.6°; 15-Year: 67.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 67.9°; 15-Year: 68.7° 

A generally warmer than normal regime will continue into the weekend before a strong cold moves across the region.

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30 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Lots of wind in the profile...  no thread from myself at this time. will rereview early Fri.  Instability acceptable but not exceptional. My guess is isolated svr I95 northwestward.  Will recheck Friday. 

That would be great. We need the rain as things have really dried out the last couple weeks city, east.

And. To break the monotony of one of the most boring weather periods possible.

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55 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly cloudy and very warm. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 75°

Newark: 79°

Philadelphia: 78°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 65.1°; 15-Year: 66.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 66.6°; 15-Year: 67.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 67.9°; 15-Year: 68.7° 

A generally warmer than normal regime will continue into the weekend before a strong cold moves across the region.

Don looks like it will warm back up to upper 70s midweek next week and beyond?

 

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26 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That would be great. We need the rain as things have really dried out the last couple weeks city, east.

And. To break the monotony of one of the most boring weather periods possible.

I really wish we could get a Cat 1 every year around this time, is that asking too much?  I want to see a Cat 1 make landfall in our area (ACY to MTP) once every year, that's not too destructive and they are fun to track.

When will the waters warm enough to make that happen?

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The next 8 days are averaging 64degs.(57/71), or +6.

Month to date is  65.2[+4.0].       Could be  64.8[+4.8] by the 22nd.

Reached 69* yesterday, no sun all day.

64*(95%RH) here at 6am.       70* at 11am.      71* at Noon       73* at 1pm.

Today:   76-80, w. to n. wind, clouds/sun.

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12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I really wish we could get a Cat 1 every year around this time, is that asking too much?  I want to see a Cat 1 make landfall in our area (ACY to MTP) once every year, that's not too destructive and they are fun to track.

When will the waters warm enough to make that happen?

We've been getting a TC in some form every year for the last few years lol

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The first half of fall is one of the warmest on record. No surprise to see the recent years filling out the rest of the list. The next few days will add to the warmth. 
 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 13
Missing Count
1 2018-10-13 68.6 0
2 2017-10-13 68.1 0
3 1959-10-13 68.0 0
4 2021-10-13 67.9 0
- 2005-10-13 67.9 0
5 1961-10-13 67.8 0
6 2015-10-13 67.5 0
7 2016-10-13 67.3 0
- 2011-10-13 67.3 0
8 2007-10-13 67.0 0
9 1973-10-13 66.5 0
10 1971-10-13 66.4 0


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 13
Missing Count
1 2018-10-13 68.7 0
2 2005-10-13 68.2 0
3 2017-10-13 67.9 0
4 2021-10-13 67.8 0
5 2015-10-13 67.0 0
6 2007-10-13 66.7 0
7 2011-10-13 66.6 0
- 1990-10-13 66.6 0
- 1983-10-13 66.6 0
- 1980-10-13 66.6 0
8 2016-10-13 65.8 0
- 2002-10-13 65.8 0
9 1998-10-13 65.7 0
10 1971-10-13 65.6 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 13
Missing Count
1 1961-10-13 71.5 0
2 2021-10-13 70.9 0
3 1959-10-13 70.8 0
4 2005-10-13 70.6 0
5 2018-10-13 70.3 0
6 2017-10-13 70.0 0
7 2007-10-13 69.5 0
8 2015-10-13 69.4 0
9 1973-10-13 69.2 0
10 1983-10-13 69.1 0
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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I really wish we could get a Cat 1 every year around this time, is that asking too much?  I want to see a Cat 1 make landfall in our area (ACY to MTP) once every year, that's not too destructive and they are fun to track.

When will the waters warm enough to make that happen?

babu-seinfeld.gif.450ca1afb32b4947f88231536d193240.gif

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20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like a battle between warm ups and cool downs as the strat warm and +PNA tries to change up the stagnant pattern.


BA92F30F-5204-40F1-A000-5207F043F4FD.thumb.png.f8fab2b72eb75b316929704e685052fd.png

A0DC5D15-EC2E-48A2-BB8D-39EC00359C11.thumb.png.e8c83fdd3ff26c6ca73af97c4ea19898.png

2BC0D088-8D08-4846-A2A3-4BBDC4469409.thumb.png.11070ec891d289ca355eaa49f6b325c5.png

Given the strong -PDO/La Niña/-PMM, I seriously doubt any +PNA spike will have any staying power. It would very likely be a transient change 

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60 hours of late summer warmth with sun returning and near records today/ Fri and part of saturday ahead of the front.  Kind of a back and forth (bias warm) Sat (10/16) through sat (10/23).  Coolest air of the season likely Sun (10/17) and Mon (10/18) before moderating and warming back up mid next week.  Cooler again by the end of next week and next weekend.  Should see less cloudy days next week and could allow temps to overperform maxes.

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58 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Given the strong -PDO/La Niña/-PMM, I seriously doubt any +PNA spike will have any staying power. It would very likely be a transient change 

Also to add, this La Niña is very well coupled (ocean-atmosphere). Another reason why I expect any +PNA to be short-lived. Last year’s Niña was not coupled which explained the extended  +PNA runs last winter 

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Also to add, this La Niña is very well coupled (ocean-atmosphere). Another reason why I expect any +PNA to be short-lived. Last year’s Niña was not coupled which explained the extended  +PNA runs last winter 

Best opportunities will come early probably up till the new year and maybe late in the season.

Jan-Feb will likely be very mild. 

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53 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Best opportunities will come early probably up till the new year and maybe late in the season.

Jan-Feb will likely be very mild. 

Depends on the strength of the La Nina and other factors. All bets will be off with blocking. 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Best opportunities will come early probably up till the new year and maybe late in the season.

Jan-Feb will likely be very mild. 

Bookends winter isn't a bad rough call right now.  Niña/stratwarm favors some early action, then we mild up before catching some more action in March when the wavelengths shorten.

 

Still so many variables in the mix though and, as we all know, it ultimately boils down to blocking.

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5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I really wish we could get a Cat 1 every year around this time, is that asking too much?  I want to see a Cat 1 make landfall in our area (ACY to MTP) once every year, that's not too destructive and they are fun to track.

When will the waters warm enough to make that happen?

You need to be careful what you wish for.  If a Cat 1 does make landfall somewhere in the area you outlined it will be destructive for at least some of us.  I had the opportunity to see the tornado damage done in Bucks Cty, PA this year by Ida and trust me you would not want to see that in your neighborhood.

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At 12 pm, temperatures in New York City were as follows: Central Park: 71°, JFK: 76°, and LGA: 74°. Central Park is reporting the lowest temperature among New York City's three major stations. This is not an anomaly. This is now an increasingly frequent outcome in October, especially when it comes to maximum temperatures.

During 1961-90, Central Park's high temperature was the lowest or tied with the lowest reading on 28% of days. During the 1991-20 period, Central Park recorded the lowest temperature on 64% of days. During the October 1-13, 2021 period, Central Park's high temperature has been the lowest or tied with the lowest on all days. Moreover, between 1961-90 and 1991-20, JFK (+0.5°) and LGA (+1.6°) saw increasing high temperatures. In contrast, Central Park saw a decline in its average October high temperature of 0.6°.

Below are some tables that illustrate how things have evolved. The use of regression equations developed from the 1961-90 period (NYC is the dependent variable; JFK and LGA are the independent variables) before the tree issue arose suggests that the October 1-13, 2021 mean temperature in Central Park would be 67.7°. Instead, the mean was 65.2°, a large 2.5° difference.

image.png.b5547cd6b936d8bd73731e739b4cd55a.png

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64*(95%RH) here at 6am.       70* at 11am.      71* at Noon       73* at 1pm.       74* at 1:30pm.       77* at 3pm.      79* at 4pm. .......Reached 80* shortly after, for about 30mins.

IT LOOKED LIKE THIS AT THE PEAK TODAY:

1634241600-IBz2AtpJVvU.png

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 12 pm, temperatures in New York City were as follows: Central Park: 71°, JFK: 76°, and LGA: 74°. Central Park is reporting the lowest temperature among New York City's three major stations. This is not an anomaly. This is now an increasingly frequent outcome in October, especially when it comes to maximum temperatures.

During 1961-90, Central Park's high temperature was the lowest or tied with the lowest reading on 28% of days. During the 1991-20 period, Central Park recorded the lowest temperature on 64% of days. During the October 1-13, 2021 period, Central Park's high temperature has been the lowest or tied with the lowest on all days. Moreover, between 1961-90 and 1991-20, JFK (+0.5°) and LGA (+1.6°) saw increasing high temperatures. In contrast, Central Park saw a decline in its average October high temperature of 0.6°.

Below are some tables that illustrate how things have evolved. The use of regression equations developed from the 1961-90 period (NYC is the dependent variable; JFK and LGA are the independent variables) before the tree issue arose suggests that the October 1-13, 2021 mean temperature in Central Park would be 67.7°. Instead, the mean was 65.2°, a large 2.5° difference.

image.png.b5547cd6b936d8bd73731e739b4cd55a.png

It’s a shame the higher up officials at the NWS let the trees grow over the sensors starting around the 1990s. We have demonstrated how the high temperatures have cooled relative to other stations since then. The cold bias was recently fixed at the Albany airport. But that fix may have been prioritized due to flight safety. The accuracy of the climate record of the biggest city in America should be just as important even though it’s not at an airport.

https://altamontenterprise.com/09162021/albany-airport-needs-more-accurate-thermometer

Albany airport needs more accurate thermometer

One would think the National Weather Service, being the steward of accurate weather detail, would seek to have an accurate thermometer. We all have heard that a global average warming of just 1.5C (about 2.5F) could wreak havoc on our planet. So, if the thermometer at the Albany International Airport is measuring 2.5 degrees too low, as I believe it is, this cool bias reading might mask any significant warming.

Assuming that is the case, an accurate thermometer is just as critical to the aviation industry. If the actual temperature is 34 F, but the Automated Surface Observing System thermometer records a temperature of 32 F, the pilot might have to be concerned about freezing rain versus liquid rain, which makes a huge operational impact. 
 

Perhaps the worst part of all this, is that our monthly records with this known cool bias, keep going out to the world and would suggest our climate is locally cooling, when really it is not. 

The folks at the local National Weather Service in Albany are not to blame. They have done all they can to inform the higher officials of the problem. I suggest you call your local Congress member and hopefully they can put pressure on the higher officials of National Weather Service to change the thermometer before further damage can be done to the climate records and have a reliable accurate temperature sensor.

 

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202109301152-KALY-NOUS41-PNSALY

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
752 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2021

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REPLACEMENT OF THERMOMETER AT
ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RECONDITIONING CENTER (NWSRC) REPLACED
THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM THERMOMETER AND ASSOCIATED
ELECTRONICS AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT YESTERDAY, 
SEPTEMBER 29, 2021 AT 9:30 AM. THE THERMOMETER WAS REPLACED WITH A
MODIFIED SENSOR AND CALIBRATED WITH A MODIFIED ALIGNMENT 
PROCEDURE.

A REFERENCE THERMOMETER, RUNNING SIDE BY SIDE WITH THE ASOS THERMOMETER,
HAS COLLECTED DATA FOR COMPARISON SINCE JUNE. THE PREVIOUS 
THERMOMETERS INSTALLED SINCE JULY 17, 2020 LIKELY HAD A COLD BIAS 
(THERMOMETER RECORDS A COLDER TEMPERATURE THAN THE ACTUAL 
TEMPERATURE).

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE THE INVESTIGATION ON THE
COLD BIAS IN THE ALBANY TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE PERIOD JULY 
17, 2020 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 29, 2021. 

PLEASE CONTACT SUSAN BUCHANAN, DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS, NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 301-427-9000 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

 

 

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The temperature at JFK Airport hit 80 degrees today. That is the latest such temperature since October 19, 2016. The average last such temperature occurs on September 27th (1991-2020). During the 1981-2010 period, the average last 80-degree reading occurred on September 24th.

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