MJO812 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 You can see a change coming from the changes on the gfs in the long range . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Huh? 2013-14 had 60" of snow. Maybe you're thinking of Jan 2016 Jan 2016 was the greatest snowfall of my life, I will take that again and dont care about anything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Huh? 2013-14 had 60" of snow. Maybe you're thinking of Jan 2016 He's probably thinking of Feb 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: I think you forgot 1995? I had 4 inches here right at the start of that epic pattern-was very late November. had accumulating snow in both November and April in 1995-96 that was awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 20 hours ago, uncle W said: I remember back in 1971 when October was warm to the end...November turned out colder than normal with record cold...December reverted back to warmer than normal...it took until late January for real winter pattern to lock in for a month...like last year February was the coldest snowiest month...the real winter pattern was locked in for a month...1995-96 was locked in from 12/9 to 1/12...then a pause...then three more weeks the beginning of February and on and off in March ... and into April! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 The high of 79° so far at Newark is close to the 80° record high. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KEWR&table=1&num=168&banner=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 20, 2021 Author Share Posted October 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The high of 79° so far at Newark is close to the 80° record high. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KEWR&table=1&num=168&banner=off Give it another 30-60 minutes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 On 10/11/2021 at 4:14 PM, forkyfork said: whenever we get sun we go past the forecast high 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Give it another 30-60 minutes Islip beat Newark by a few minutes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, it’s been a long time since we had a cold pool and deep trough in the Northeast Pacific during the fall. If he’s correct and a AK/GOA vortex is a persistent, semi-permanent feature this winter, we are in a lot of trouble. An AK/GOA vortex is a mega torch pattern for the CONUS and Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Islip beat Newark by a few minutes. Bridgeport and New Haven have also set new records. LGA has tied its record. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 35 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If he’s correct and a AK/GOA vortex is a persistent, semi-permanent feature this winter, we are in a lot of trouble. An AK/GOA vortex is a mega torch pattern for the CONUS and Canada The chance this pattern holds is close to zero...anyone who wants cold and snow wants this pattern to keep up another 3-4 weeks before it flips but its almost never that a pattern from September holds all winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 36 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Bridgeport and New Haven have also set new records. LGA has tied its record. Yeah, the record warmth continues… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 77.7 today is the October max temp at my site. Beating out a couple 77.6's lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: The chance this pattern holds is close to zero...anyone who wants cold and snow wants this pattern to keep up another 3-4 weeks before it flips but its almost never that a pattern from September holds all winter. In our old Climate this was definitely true. The problem is we have seen ultra persistent patterns in recent years. The question is how long this can hold. It’s not what we want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: If he’s correct and a AK/GOA vortex is a persistent, semi-permanent feature this winter, we are in a lot of trouble. An AK/GOA vortex is a mega torch pattern for the CONUS and Canada No offense but if it were the reverse right now you would say the pattern would change in time and cause a mild, snowfree winter. I personally think we're going to an AN temp winter with near normal snows though that's highly dependent on blocking. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 warm la nina Octobers and the following winter snowfall... 1908-09...20.3"... 1949-50...13.8"... 1950-51...11.6"... 1954-55...11.5"... 1955-56...35.0"... 1971-72...21.9"... 1973-74...23.5"... 1984-85...24.1"... 1995-96...75.6"... 2007-08...11,9"... 2017-18...40.9"... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Strong coastal signal for next week though not sure where it'll end up. EPS definitely has more of a +PNA showing up late October into early November. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 21 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Strong coastal signal for next week though not sure where it'll end up. EPS definitely has more of a +PNA showing up late October into early November. looks like some blocking too....could give someone a soaker if we get a slow moving storm-we are due, most areas have had little rain since 9/1. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 1 hour ago, tdp146 said: 77.7 today is the October max temp at my site. Beating out a couple 77.6's lol. 78... a 4:30 PM high like its July 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Nice trough 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nice trough Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 EVEN BETTER: bottom But the GEFS below LOOKS UN-IMPRESSED 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 76° here today, tied record for date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: In our old Climate this was definitely true. The problem is we have seen ultra persistent patterns in recent years. The question is how long this can hold. It’s not what we want to see. It really does feel like summer tonight! Just one of those early September nights! I 100% agree about this 3 month pattern persistence. It’s something we have been stuck in for years now. I remember last November it was 70 degrees to start the month. It was great for the late season stripe bass fishing. I’m completely okay with it being warm currently! I don’t want a ideal pattern for snow until mid December 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: I can remember when Eastern Troughs at the end of October actually had some decent cold. This time the Pacific is very unfavorable. The -NAO blocking is also pressing pretty far south near New England. The source region continues to be from the pac with any trough we do get. Until that changes are cool downs will be brief and around normal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 30 minutes ago, bluewave said: I can remember when Eastern Troughs at the end of October actually had some decent cold. This time the Pacific is very unfavorable. The -NAO blocking is also pressing pretty far south near New England. Like last year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Not wintry but definitely signs that one of these troughs crossing the mid Atlantic coast between the 25th-30th is going to create an ocean nor'easter of 40-50kt... whether its' grazing Delmarva or LI? and with only a few 40 kt gusts or more vigorous on our coasts? Tides are not abnormally high so that is good. The previously posted 500MB height departures from normal show the blocking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Under bright sunshine, the temperature surged into the middle and upper 70s across much of the region. High temperatures included: Bridgeport: 77° (old record: 75°, 1953) Islip: 75° (old record: 74°, 1969, 1979, and 1984) New Haven: 77° (old record: 73°, 1953 and 2017) New York City-JFK: 79° New York City-LGA: 80° (old record: 79°, 1953 and 1984) New York City-NYC: 75° Newark: 80° (tied record set in 1947 and tied in 1969) Philadelphia: 76° White Plains: 74° Newark reached 70° for the 172nd time this year. As a result, 2021 is now has the 2nd most days on record. Today was also Newark's 116th 80° day, which ranks 2nd on the all-time list. Tomorrow and Friday will be unseasonably warm. Another cool shot is likely for the weekend. The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +6.70 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.151 today. On October 18 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.315 (RMM). The October 17-adjusted amplitude was 0.375 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.7° (3.8° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Under bright sunshine, the temperature surged into the middle and upper 70s across much of the region. High temperatures included: Bridgeport: 77° (old record: 75°, 1953) Islip: 75° (old record: 74°, 1969, 1979, and 1984) New Haven: 77° (old record: 73°, 1953 and 2017) New York City-JFK: 79° New York City-LGA: 80° (old record: 79°, 1953 and 1984) New York City-NYC: 75° Newark: 80° (tied record set in 1947 and tied in 1969) Philadelphia: 76° White Plains: 74° Newark reached 70° for the 172nd time this year. As a result, 2021 is now has the 2nd most days on record. Today was also Newark's 116th 80° day, which ranks 2nd on the all-time list. Tomorrow and Friday will be unseasonably warm. Another cool shot is likely for the weekend. The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +6.70 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.151 today. On October 18 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.315 (RMM). The October 17-adjusted amplitude was 0.375 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.7° (3.8° above normal). omg JFK got so close to 80! what happened? there was no sea breeze they should've made it! what was JFK's record? I have my fan on lol. Another chance tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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