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October/November 2021 Med/Long Range


nj2va
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52 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_52.png

time to take a mountain drive :snowwindow:

That would totally suck. We need the proper transition to 70’s 60’s 50’s and 40’s by around Nov 15. Then we can start thinking about cold and snow. I’m all for a sunny 65 degree days for Oct. Almost all the way to November. Then let the bottom drop out.

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57 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO rains this week.  Heaviest looks like Th. afternoon/ evening.

78BA2CAE-03F5-4FED-A061-490ECBCAA79C.png

Not sure the Euro has the handle on this just yet. The trend seems to be a slower frontal passage due to upstream blocking with higher rainfall totals as a result.  Coolest post frontal anomalies may never make it to the coastal areas due to resistance from the WAR. 

FYI,  the WPC seems to be going wetter over a larger area versus what the Euro has here.    

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11 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

As usual, the models seem to be backing off thier colder looks later in the week. Still looks nice and refreshing, but we do seem to get the colder Temps muted some as we approach these times, especially early in the year. Not complaining as it will be very nice! 

Very true. By Sunday warming begins again.  What was forecasted as a nice 4 day period has turned into really just one, Saturday.   Might change of course but strong upstream blocking is messing up everything in terms of a quick frontal passage. 

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10 hours ago, frd said:

Very true. By Sunday warming begins again.  What was forecasted as a nice 4 day period has turned into really just one, Saturday.   Might change of course but strong upstream blocking is messing up everything in terms of a quick frontal passage. 

And now the front is progged to push through without an issue, then a reinforcing shot of cool air showing up for Monday.

I really wish people wouldn't make definitive statements on weather a week out.

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38 minutes ago, mattie g said:

And now the front is progged to push through without an issue, then a reinforcing shot of cool air showing up for Monday.

I really wish people wouldn't make definitive statements on weather a week out.

I'm not sure what you're really talking about.

Originally the front was forecast to pass our area  on Wednesday.  Thursday and Friday we're going to be sunny,  if you read the Mount Holly AFD you'll still see that Wednesday and Thursday look unsettled.  The sun will break  out Friday morning late.

I would appreciate if people pay attention to a poster's entire post.  I said things may change , I never said it's certain. 

fyi nothing in weather is definite

 

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GFS looks like typical fall weather for late September into early October. Compared to average I’d say we go through this period near normal to slightly below.

There are some truisms that you can usually hang your hat on with medium range forecasting. One, cold fronts always arrive later than forecast. Two, cold air always has a tough time getting past the mountains. Three, air masses are typically modeled colder than they turn out to be. It’s a pronounced modeling bias.

None of this is new.

Your regular programming will now continue.

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3 hours ago, mattie g said:

And now the front is progged to push through without an issue, then a reinforcing shot of cool air showing up for Monday.

I really wish people wouldn't make definitive statements on weather a week out.

And honestly, the models showed a much cooler look than what they show now after this front. I did not say it would not get cooler, but the extent and duration are not what was originally showing! I am not complaining, I think I was reminding that super cooler/colder looks on long-term models, tend to be overdone and we should not be surprised, especially at this time of year! 

This may be wrong, but the models did back off some! 

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5 hours ago, frd said:

I'm not sure what you're really talking about.

Originally the front was forecast to pass our area  on Wednesday.  Thursday and Friday we're going to be sunny,  if you read the Mount Holly AFD you'll still see that Wednesday and Thursday look unsettled.  The sun will break  out Friday morning late.

I would appreciate if people pay attention to a poster's entire post.  I said things may change , I never said it's certain. 

fyi nothing in weather is definite

 

I was adding onto your post.

What I was talking about was the complaining about how the front was slowing down and taking its time to actually move through, and how that meant that any cold push would be muted by the time it reached us.

2 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

And honestly, the models showed a much cooler look than what they show now after this front. I did not say it would not get cooler, but the extent and duration are not what was originally showing! I am not complaining, I think I was reminding that super cooler/colder looks on long-term models, tend to be overdone and we should not be surprised, especially at this time of year! 

This may be wrong, but the models did back off some! 

But did they really show that much of a cooler look? And today's 12z GFS is showing mostly cooler than normal temps after the frontal passage on Wednesday-Thursday.

I realize I'm being a little oppositional, but I'm just not sure why there's a bit of hand-wringing about this.

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2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Another thing to remember is that about 7-10 days ago this weekend looked hot. Am I remembering that correctly?

Just had a quick look at TT. There was a front there at the same timeframe, but it never made it all the way here, then there a reinforcing shot that was to come in but not with a ton of oomph. 

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  • nj2va changed the title to October/November 2021 Med/Long Range
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