frd Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Maybe in mid January peak climo you could say that, but Nov 25-28? Nah . Seems the last few years the best patterns for us never coincides with our best climo. Last year when we thought we were going to get nailed by extreme cold and snow ( during the strong blocking episode ) the entire threat area shifted way SW leading to the crippling Texas snow/ice and severe cold outbreak. I believe the block shifted West and we were left with scraps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 We are in the new climo where seasons don't matter. Nov is the new March but not really 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 41 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Maybe in mid January peak climo you could say that, but Nov 25-28? Nah . Barely an argument. The writing is on the wall in this regard with that said maybe we will find a new way to get snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 My argument beats up yours 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 It is somewhat ironic that we would mention peak climo since that is an accumulation of the pattern leading up. This is what I call a cold air ejection pattern which are AGW wavelengths unsuitable for good winters. Too much of what used to be our friend in the golden years of the 2000s and early 2010s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 39 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Barely an argument. The writing is on the wall in this regard with that said maybe we will find a new way to get snow. I read that quickly and automatically went with “a new way to get screwed”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Man that is a strong -NAO on 18z GFS ensembles, it's too bad the +PNA can't get grounded.. it's all spread out and intersecting with +EPO. the trend is more toward -PNA 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 I like the 1st week of Dec for a snowstorm, but it may be 40N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 00z GFS has blue pixels over us next Friday. It’s a sure thing! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 3 hours ago, nj2va said: 00z GFS has blue pixels over us next Friday. It’s a sure thing! Looks like 1-2 along i95 and just west... 3 to 10 in NW VA and C MD lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 8 hours ago, nj2va said: 00z GFS has blue pixels over us next Friday. It’s a sure thing! Those kinds of storms result in nice little 3-6" / 4-8", stressless events in the heart of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 It's rarely the epic blocking patterns that give us the widespread memorable events. More often than not it is just as the pattern is developing but more likely as it relaxes and breaks down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 AAM looks like it might fall off later in the month. However, the last image shows what a - GLAMM might look like with anomilies less than -0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 I wish I were in Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Seem like good news to me. Let’s see what the snow cover map looks like by mid December!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Pretty colors. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Regarding Tuesday's storm (threat), seems like our best chance is definitely something weird happening on the backend -- not sure exactly what that is (CCB might be the term I'm looking for) but it's how the ens members that do, both EPS and GEFS, get us somewhere. For those with GEFS access, p29 looks nearly identical to the 12z EURO run 2 days ago. Probably a 1-1000 shot, but why not keep an eye on it anyway? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 28 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Regarding Tuesday's storm (threat), seems like our best chance is definitely something weird happening on the backend -- not sure exactly what that is (CCB might be the term I'm looking for) but it's how the ens members that do, both EPS and GEFS, get us somewhere. For those with GEFS access, p29 looks nearly identical to the 12z EURO run 2 days ago. Probably a 1-1000 shot, but I've got nothing more pressing to do than monitor it. I suppose we are not in op range just yet. seems like each run of the op has muted the deepness of the trough. at least it looks somewhat interesting for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Pre-December I'll take exciting weather even in the form of rain/wind. Any snow is bonus. 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: Regarding Tuesday's storm (threat), seems like our best chance is definitely something weird happening on the backend -- not sure exactly what that is (CCB might be the term I'm looking for) but it's how the ens members that do, both EPS and GEFS, get us somewhere. For those with GEFS access, p29 looks nearly identical to the 12z EURO run 2 days ago. Probably a 1-1000 shot, but why not keep an eye on it anyway? I haven’t seen the ensemble members, but I’m guessing some sort of trailing waves along the front? Still think flurries next Tuesday are quite possible, at least for the N/W crew with that lake enhanced cold air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Models look juicy for 1st week of December! I can't see us getting over 2-4" max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I haven’t seen the ensemble members, but I’m guessing some sort of trailing waves along the front? Still think flurries next Tuesday are quite possible, at least for the N/W crew with that lake enhanced cold air. A snow squally event could be fun - even with no accumulation locally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 18 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: A snow squally event could be fun - even with no accumulation locally. First flakes are always fun. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 25 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Models look juicy for 1st week of December! I can't see us getting over 2-4" max Why are you posting about the first week of December on the 17th? The patterns aren't even set in place, yet alone a storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 32 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Why are you posting about the first week of December on the 17th? The patterns aren't even set in place, yet alone a storm. He had some free time between PE and Social Studies 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: Regarding Tuesday's storm (threat), seems like our best chance is definitely something weird happening on the backend -- not sure exactly what that is (CCB might be the term I'm looking for) but it's how the ens members that do, both EPS and GEFS, get us somewhere. For those with GEFS access, p29 looks nearly identical to the 12z EURO run 2 days ago. Probably a 1-1000 shot, but why not keep an eye on it anyway? We always get screwed on the backend.. hurts just thinking about it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Next week looks underwhelming. The whole trough needs to shift about 200 miles west. Not a lot to ask for really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 Lol @ any forecast that mentions backend. We know better. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 I'm getting excited about seeing our first flakes Tuesday or Wednesday! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 20 minutes ago, peribonca said: I'm getting excited about seeing our first flakes Tuesday or Wednesday! Yeah seems to be a decent chance that we might get some lake effect bands after the storm comes through. Though it is lake effect so you got to be lucky to get anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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