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Hurricane Ida's Remnants


SnowenOutThere
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Discussion/OBS, made the other tropical storm thread of the season and thought I'd make this one as well. Banter is fine after I would like to post in my own thread. Keep complaining to a minimum. Happy forecasting and lets hope Ida does not end up like every snowstorm we've tracked this year.  

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After looking at the latest NAM run we can now pretty confidently say that a major precip event from this storm is looking more and more unlikely, so we should probably just shift to thinking  about severe for this storm. Also we can always count on the northward trend within 48 hours on a storm that looks borderline for us tropical or winter. 

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SpookyScaryNamRuns.thumb.png.ea2cfda79032065b519efcf2648ca064.png

Looks to have a broken line of supercells hit tomorrow around 7pm there is a line before that is even more scattered in nature but with these scary looking cells as well, definitely will be something bad that happens to someone tomorrow but where is still to early to tell.  

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Following is shared with Wes’ permission:

Tomorrow through Thursday morning is going to be really interesting across the area as remnants of Ida move across the area. The system has some similarities with Hurricane Camille which produced a monster flash flood over Nelson County but also has enough differences that Camille is not a great analog. The similarities are that Ida remains will a have an 850 mb and surface low as it tracks across and east of the mountains. The system will be interacting with the exit region of an upper level jet streak. Strong frontogenesis will be taking place along the frontal surface. 6-8 inches of rain fell along the front well east of the mountains during Camille. The two most notable differences between the two systems is the track which was farther south across Virginia than this Ida's is forecast to be and Camille had a surface high building across to its north giving the system more easterly flow as it cam across the mountains. The heaviest rainfall will be north of the storm track along and north of the front probably across northwestern MD and southern PA though with the 2.00 PWS even DCA could end up with too much rainfall, too quickly to drain properly.

Below I've attached a NAM forecast showing the forecast frontogenesis across the area. It could shift a little depending on shift in the storm track. I've also posted a NAM precipitation forecast. It tends to have a high bias but offers a glimpse of the systems rainfall potential. I wouldn't be surprised if an isolated 10" plus amount showed up somewhere over the mid Atlantic region near the mountains probably from northwest VA into Southern PA. Exactly where will depend on the storm track and meso and micro features. I used to really like forecasting these types of storms especially back in the low resolution model days when could really whip the models. Now it's not so easy. They are usually pretty good as long as they forecast the track well.

South of the front in my county, higher temperatures and more instability will be present so we still could get thunderstorms with really high rainfall rates given that the PWS are forecast to be aoa 2.00" but our storms probably will be more scattered and any bands that form will be progressive keeping us in the 1-3" rainfall range. However, we may have enough shear to produce short lasting rotating storms. I'm not a severe weather expert but tomorrow afternoon I'll be watching the radar.

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25 minutes ago, mappy said:

I'll gladly take only 3" 

Yeah, I know a lot of people are bummed, but out here in Frederick/Washington county we have been having heavy rain almost everyday for at least a week.  This could get really ugly out here for flooding.

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2 minutes ago, MDphotog said:

Yeah, I know a lot of people are bummed, but out here in Frederick/Washington county we have been having heavy rain almost everyday for at least a week.  This could get really ugly out here for flooding.

yeah, you guys don't need 6+ of rain

 

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I for one hope we get the lower end of the totals. Somebody, somewhere is facing a catastrophe if some of those rainfall amounts verify. I guess some people live in a fantasy world where they think it can rain a foot in a day in mountainous terrain and people won’t have their homes and businesses destroyed and possibly lose their life. Not cool to “hope” those things happen IMO.

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6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I for one hope we get the lower end of the totals. Somebody, somewhere is facing a catastrophe if some of those rainfall amounts verify. I guess some people live in a fantasy world where they think it can rain a foot in a day in mountainous terrain and people won’t have their homes and businesses destroyed and possibly lose their life. Not cool to “hope” those things happen IMO.

It’s a decades long  debate 

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41 minutes ago, MDphotog said:

Yeah, I know a lot of people are bummed, but out here in Frederick/Washington county we have been having heavy rain almost everyday for at least a week.  This could get really ugly out here for flooding.

I can attest to this. Been a similar pattern with storms dropping in from Hagerstown almost everyday and unpredictable in duration/intensity.

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2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I can attest to this. Been a similar pattern with storms dropping in from Hagerstown almost everyday and unpredictable in duration/intensity.

To be honest some of us direly need rain in the area. But not 4-6 inches worth.

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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Hug the HREF if you’re rooting for precip. 3”+ for everyone north of EZF more or less.

    Any chance you looked at the max by accident?    That image matches your description.    The mean isn't that aggressive for DC and areas right along I-95:

 

 

25729388_ScreenShot2021-08-31at1_23_20PM.thumb.png.1dffa520fdef70460eb91dddc96a5314.png

 

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