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September Discussion Thread: Bring the frost; kill the bugs.


moneypitmike
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37 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I was in a supermarket parking lot in Sarasota Florida, about 20 years ago and this group of teenagers, walked up to me and asked, “are you the singer from the Spin Doctors?” 
My GF laughed and I just kind of stared at them with a furrowed brow.

If you...want to talk dews for hours....just go ahead now. 

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I noticed as we got closer to today thru tomorrow, the models had to back off on the mean frontal position through our region.

In fact, synoptically .. the high pressure through eastern Ontario evolved less massive, while 850mb has arrived less depressed S.   Was +9, three days ago... with attending total air mass quality looking more 'across the bow' back whence.  Now we set at +15 to +12, looking SW to NE thru the area, the air is tinted in DP...the wind is too light to signal much advection, and the clamor of summer insects are still sawin' away at it out there.  

Ha ha. Nothing Earth shattering in noting that tedium but ... it's 'correction vectoring' ftw.  Recognizing the 'synoptic footprint' as still unchanged during any transient events that are nested within some larger framework, is useful.   Models, particularly beyond short ranges, will often if not typically attempt to sell scenarios that over-compensate. Then, the preexisting 'tendencies' manifest and correct x-y-z modeled phenomenon back toward the predominating mean.  

This is a warm pattern... one that is before the warm one folks are even talking about toward the week's end. It's hard to know/boundary that, versus today at this point.  Maybe it's a warm pattern that 'gets even warmer', but the synoptic correction we just saw leading today in the Euro spanning the last week is pretty classic footprint correcting behavior. 

The sun is weaker and weakening... but we are still on the warm side of the Equinox by a pube.   Here's the thing, a month ago that would be a slam dunk heat wave out there D6 to 9.  At knee jerk take, I don't know if we can do more than the mid 80s right now.   However, ..thinking back, we did an 84 F afternoon in mid February (2016 I think it was...) ... actually I think several Febs have had some eerie warmth. But, that happened some 5 weeks prior to the Equinox, or on the 'cold' side.   So, the dimming sun-angle can be overplayed too.  I think if we get a bona fide dose of 18.5C at 850 with 'thermal momentum' (leading warm pattern of sufficient density/time), ...

What is the latest heat wave on record for N of say NYC ?   I'm sure it cheated to so with three day 89.45 at some stretch or the other in the last 250 years ... but either way the return rate's gotta be pretty low on that.  

Subjective ( imho ...) the back of summer is broken, but this is a CC September incarnate and that larger guiding factor is skewing/smearing the effect toward less distinction.

 

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