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September Discussion Thread: Bring the frost; kill the bugs.


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13 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah no cool fall wx but no big heat. Just solid warmth AN relative to normal 

I don’t know what “solid warmth” is but sounds more like push back on any fall weather narrative… but 30-40% chance of AN literally means new baseline normal it seems as Tip often points out.

That prob map could be like:

AN Chance: 40%
Normal: 30%
BN Chance: 30%

Doesn't seem to have a strong signal either direction, just lean baseline slightly above normal all 365 days a year lol.

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Average high on Sept 15 in Nashua is 73/53 . We can take a plus 3 departure 

It could be +0.5 :lol:.  Those climate probability maps are tough to gain much from except they think warm anomalies will be centered in heart of nation.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

It could be +0.5 :lol:.  Those climate probability maps are tough to gain much from except they think warm anomalies will be centered in heart of nation.

Ya , leaves will be turning nicely . Just keep the 86-87 with 68-72 dews away for more than a stray day 

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Got up at 4:30, dropped the wife off in BTV for a flight to NYC at 6am, came back to Stowe, then decided to grab the dog and go up to the picnic tables with a thermos of coffee and enjoy the morning.

A little chilly up here with occasional clouds grazing the top and a stiff breeze… but what a beautiful Labor Day morning.


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15 hours ago, dendrite said:

Yeah this is the pick of the holidays here so far. Not that that's saying much.


05/28 54.7  42.9 0.15       0.0  0
05/29 51.0  40.9 0.22       0.0  0
05/30 50.7  43.4 0.52       0.0  0
05/31 57.4  46.3 0.28       0.0  0

07/03 57.5  53.4 1.08       0.0  0
07/04 68.7  53.4 0.50       0.0  0
07/05 74.5  53.3 0.00       0.0  0
07/06 83.5  63.7 0.04       0.0  0

09/03 70.8  50.6 0.00       0.0  0
09/04 73.6  53.4 0.00       0.0  0
09/05 68.0  51.9 0.11       0.0  0


Same here.  Though Sept 3-5 was mostly cloudy, the rain came before 9 AM on the 3rd and after 6 PM on the 5th.

5/28   58  37  
5/29   56  42
5/30   58  35  0.24
5/31   53  44  0.72  (Kept May 2021 from being the driest of 24 here)

7/3    56  51   0.02
7/4    56  50  0.88
7/5    72  41  
7/6    76  55

9/3    64  50  0.06
9/4    69  44
9/5    60  41   0.11
Today should be the first 70+ of the month.


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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Looks like background CC type values in our area.  33-40% chance above normal.

Thats real nice weather in September.  Highs low 70s, lows upper 40s?

Average here for Sept 11-15 is 69/45.  If it's 2-3° AN for the period, what's not to like?

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Outta left field Monday morning MJO quarterback:

In short, strong phase 5 should equal at a minimum a cooler tendency, Lakes/OV/MA/NE.

Advil version  ...Gotta remember to check your seasonal composites. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

The Sept-Oct-Nov ('SON') correlation with the MJO suggest modestly cooler than normal for the eastern Lakes/OV/upper MA and NE regions. 

Right now the CPC's forecast plotted, GEFs members strengthen the wave between late phase 3 and early Phase 6.  There's a lot of spread, but every member is robust. The mean is towering the wave magnitude above median, and given the integral beneath the arc of the wave trajectory through the RMMs is so large,   it would be spending a considerable amount of time there.  In theory, longer means adding more ballast/momentum to the super synoptic 'gestalt' of the circulation.  

The EPS has this 'bloody show' but not nearly as robustly.  Still, a blend of the two clusters supports a medium wave dynamic spanning said spaces.

Offsets and philosophy:     Personally I have noticed that MJO presentation has become less obvious in recent decades ... perhaps owing ( conjecture ) to the same reasons Pacific SSTs/ENSOs also have become less coherently represented. 

Hypothesis: I believe the expansion of the HC is engulfing the trigger points where these OLR/convective forcing would typically interact and force R-wave distribution at mid latitudes.  Both the ENSO and MJO are equatorial phenomenon with amorphous boundaries.  They extend some 15 to 20, N vs S of the Equator across their respect anomaly periods. The sustaining HC ( which is also an amorphous boundary where it terminates with the westerlies) has expanded well beyond the former.

Metaphor,  when the sun ages another some 4 billion years ..it will begin to swell into the red giant phase.  When that happens, it will bloat to the orbit of Venus ... perhaps even Earth .. HUGE. The orbits of these worlds will no longer be relevant .. because, they will be inside the sun.  Most likely, disintegrating and becoming part of the solar guts that will soon after, eviscerate out into a planetary nebula. 

When that happens ...they no longer will have any gravitational influence on the surround orbital plain that they once controlled. 

The 'HC' in this metaphor is the red giant phase.  The ENSO is Venus, the MJO is Earth.  ...just in case this cartoon isn't obvious...

But in geophysical concepts, because the the Hadley Cell has grown to a point where it is homogenizing the atmosphere [ perhaps ] too far N and S, these no longer can interact with the gradient of the mid latitudes.  If they are not apart of that gradient, they do not exert on the flow ... It is 'as though' they no longer exist, being the point. 

But they still do... Keep in mind and spirit of objective scientific conjecture, we are not talking absolute switches. Nature is a matter of less vs more as modulating influences in any given system.

I am not in a position to delegate a team of grad students into gathering data and juggling derivatives on white boards, nor do I have access very readily ( or time ..) to engage in these pursuits my self.  I am saddled by life like anyone. But, I have a gift for making broad stroked insights ..and having to then wait for those who do have wherewithal to inevitably release their formulaic works ... demonstrating that said insights were essentially correct.   This kind of station in life is what I refer to as the KosmiK  dildo,  or the "Michigan J. Frog" effect.  The irony is, I am not only originally from Michigan, I bear some resemblance for the shear fact that I've never been kissed by a princess...  It's funny how that works.    

whatever...I know I'm right about this ..better than 50%.  The HC is simple f'ing up the mid last Century correlations with these air and sea, Equatorial teleconnector fields.  Another CC attribute.




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I mean the ground has been like a smelly wet sock for almost 3 months. Anytime we pull some sun and warmth it just evaporates into the low levels and just sits there. Hadley didn’t allow for any real cP airmasses to mix and dry it out so we basically had stagnant swamp conditions from July onward.

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