pazzo83 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Yeah HurricaneJosh is working with Weather Nation i believe? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said: Probably looking at a 110-115 MPH storm currently given the impressive core organization of the past few hours, imo. Honestly think NHC will go ahead and nudge this up to 100kt with the 03z advisory... maybe even higher if we pop a warming eye with all this intense convection ongoing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 16 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: yeap, already can see it on satellite, wonder if they up it to CAT3 at 11 pm based on satellite and other info My money is on 115mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 If this is the pace that is being set for the rest of the night, I wouldn't be surprised to see 940mb by 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My money is on 115mph. i agree, storm looks healthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 1 minute ago, hlcater said: If this is the pace that is being set for the rest of the night, I wouldn't be surprised to see 940mb by 12z tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised by 930mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Honestly think NHC will go ahead and nudge this up to 100kt with the 03z advisory... maybe even higher if we pop a warming eye with all this intense convection ongoing. I agree, I would be surprised if they keep it at 90 knots, assuming the appearance doesn't degrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Nam pretty similar on track.. Houme looks like the spot to be if you are a crazy storm chaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Is it me or in the last hour did a new tiny eye just come in from the east and replace the old tiny eye? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Is it me or in the last hour did a new tiny eye just come in from the east and replace the old tiny eye? Clearing out an eye is an extremely dynamic process, that involves a lot of wobbling around, etc... that gives off the appearance of something like "a new tiny eye coming in and replacing the old tiny eye." Once you've seen enough of them, you figure out that they are bizarre, seemingly inexplicable cycles/processes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 CDO Skull... Off to the races we go...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Looks like Ida was taking a selfie. 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: That eye wall is probally extremely electrical. Believe it or not, GOES GLM does not detect any lightning currently in the eyewall of Ida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Probably, but not a given...15' surge is possible Yes, it will probably hold but a part of me is just used to never-ending black swan events. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Believe it or not, GOES GLM does not detect any lightning currently in the eyewall of Ida. Got a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Hurricane Opal many years ago was heading north in the gulf towards Pensacola as Cat 1, and strengthen to Cat 5 overnight. It didn't stay at that level long, but scared the hell out many down there. Tiny storm, too. Landed Cat 2 or 3, don't remember. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Eye showing up on KLIX radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Just now, Brian D said: Hurricane Opal many years ago was heading north in the gulf towards Pensacola as Cat 1, and strengthen to Cat 5 overnight. It didn't stay at that level long, but scared the hell out many down there. Tiny storm, too. Landed Cat 2 or 3, don't remember. 1995? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Got a link? Most eyewalls contain very little lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Natester said: 1995? Don't remember, but it was a long while back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Brian D said: Hurricane Opal many years ago was heading north in the gulf towards Pensacola as Cat 1, and strengthen to Cat 5 overnight. It didn't stay at that level long, but scared the hell out many down there. Tiny storm, too. Landed Cat 2 or 3, don't remember. Cat 3 125mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Natester said: 1995? Yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 The USAF have launched an 'emergency replacement flight' to take the place of the earlier cancelled USAF mission. Aircraft has departed San Antonio and is enroute to Ida. Either that or the original aircraft's issue was quickly resolved. Regardless, commendations are in order for whoever made that happen. Not often you see a 'second' mission take off in place of the first. 15 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 11 PM stays at 105, pressure down to 964. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Just now, MattPetrulli said: 11 PM stays at 105, pressure down to 964. Wow...maybe compensating since the 105mph was originally a bit generous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Just now, MattPetrulli said: 11 PM stays at 105, pressure down to 964. Surprising... But with a recon mission en route that's actually reasonable... Can make any upgrades as necessary when the plane arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 1 minute ago, jojo762 said: Surprising... But with a recon mission en route that's actually reasonable... Can make any upgrades as necessary when the plane arrives. Yea, they probably want to avoid overshooting again, so just waiting on recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Latest NHC path nudged East a little. One more nudge and New Orleans gets that eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Here is part of MOB’s historical disco on Opal. On the morning of October 2nd, Opal intensified to a hurricane while centered 150miles west of Merida, Mexico. By this time, Opal began to drift north as a large upperlevel trough moved across the central United States. Opal then accelerated to thenorth northeast on October 3rd and 4th and underwent a period of rapid intensification- strengthening into a strong Category 4 hurricane early on October 4th. The minimumcentral pressure of 916 mb with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph occurred whenthe hurricane was centered about 290 miles south southwest of Pensacola, FL around5am on October 4th. Rapid Intensification and EvacuationsAnybody living along the northern Gulf Coast in 1995 will tell you they heard some unsettling news when they woke up the morning of October 4th. Gulf coast residents went to bed on October 3rd knowing that Opal was a Category 2 storm with maximum winds of 100 mph. By 4am the next morning, the winds had increased to 135 mph. By 10am, Opal had maximum sustained winds of an alarming 150 mph, which is just below Category 5 intensity. Upon learning this, thousands of residents decided to evacuate at the last minute, which resulted in grid lock on many major highways, including Interstate 65. Many of these residents ended up seeking refuge in local shelters as Opal closed in on the western Florida Panhandle.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Just now, Crazy4Wx said: Latest NHC path nudged East a little. One more nudge and New Orleans gets that eyewall. I noticed that. The midline now comes in right around Port Fourchon and the storm is later just west of Lake Pontchartrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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