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September 2021


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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny, hazy, and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 82°

Newark: 86°

Philadelphia: 84°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 77.7°; 15-Year: 78.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 79.2°; 15-Year: 79.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 80.4°; 15-Year: 80.8°

The week will likely be warmer to occasionally much warmer than normal.

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Warm up on with next show at 90s, especially i the warmer spots Sun - Mon and Wed/Thu.  Overall looking warmer than  normal for the long range.  GFS still back and forth with low undercutting the ridge next week bringing rain on various runs while the ECM is mainly well east of the coast with the low.

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this September reminds me of 2005...enso was weaker in 2005 and the qbo was in a stronger easterly state...the QBO weakened by winter...We did see a fast start to winter but it left before Christmas and didn't return till February...other years with a stronger qbo were...

1970...1974...2007...2011...these la nina years with a stronger easterly qbo than 2021 lestened by winter...years like 2017, 2000, 1983, 1962 and had an easterly qbo similar to this year and were a little stronger by winter...1956 was a little weaker but not that much...qbo easterly years that were stronger by winter were snowier than the ones that became weaker by wiinter...

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3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

This is our new reality. Things will just get worse and worse every year.

I see you got heavily weenied but not sure why.  The worsening droughts out west lead to increasing coverage of fires in that area which will increase the smoke in many areas of our country.  

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57 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

September is the new august and October the new September. It’s pretty hard to cool down early with the lack of sea ice slowing arctic cooling. 

The monthly temperature increases from 81-10 to 91-20 have been more pronounced during certain months. Newark and Islip are compared below. The +1.0 or warmer months for either station were bolded. So we get an extension of summer into September. 

……….EWR…..ISP

Dec…+1.5….+1.5

Jan….+1.2…+1.3

Feb….+0.5….+0.5

 

Mar….+0.4….+0.6

Apr….+0.5…..+0.6

May...+0.6….+0.9

 

Jun….+0.3….+0.6

Jul…..+1.4…..+1.1

Aug...+0.6….+0.9

 

Sep….+1.0….+1.3

Oct…..+0.9..+1.4

Nov….+0.2..+0.5

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Tomorrow will feature hazy sunshine, as wildfire smoke from aloft becomes present near the surface. It will be unseasonably warm with temperatures rising into the middle and upper 80s in much of the region. A few hot spots could reach 90°.

Some of the guidance is hinting at a potential tropical-enhanced rain event for late next week into next weekend. The potential needs to be watched. Before then, showers and thundershowers are possible tomorrow evening and night. The 12z HREF has a stripe of 0.25" precipitation that cuts across New York City, which implies a fairly good chance that some of the thunderstorms could impact New York City.

Despite a cooler than normal first 7-10 days, September will likely feature near normal to somewhat warmer than normal temperatures in much of the region. The second half of the month could feature above to perhaps much above normal temperatures. As a result, 2021 is increasingly likely to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop.

The SOI was +24.90 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.093 today.

On September 10 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.308 (RMM). The September 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.293 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.8° (1.6° above normal).

 

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10 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

September is the new august and October the new September. It’s pretty hard to cool down early with the lack of sea ice slowing arctic cooling. 

Wouldn’t open water act as a more efficient heat sink? I believe ice can act as an insulator to a degree. 

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10 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

September is the new august and October the new September. It’s pretty hard to cool down early with the lack of sea ice slowing arctic cooling. 

Even though Arctic seas ice has been on the decline, so far this season it is higher than previous seasons and higher than the 2010s average. The question is will it continue or is it just an aberration.

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The next 8 days are averaging 78degs.(71/86), or +8.

Month to date is  71.0[-1.3].        Could be  73.8[+2.5] by the 21st., more likely 72.2[+0.9]----but no BN for two weeks.

Reached 82* here at 5pm.

84* today with west/nw. wind.

72*(88%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds.      77* by 9am.       80* by 11am.     81* at Noon.         Reached 87* at 4:30pm.

 

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny, hazy, and warm. Some areas could see an evening thunderstorm. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 83°

Newark: 87°

Philadelphia: 87°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 77.4°; 15-Year: 78.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 78.8°; 15-Year: 79.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 80.0°; 15-Year: 80.5°

Generally warmer than normal weather will continue through the week.

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