September 2021

[STORMANLI]

Yeah, that was a window-rattler.

Looks to be south of LIE , weat of 231

[nycwinter]

had a few lighting strikes here in upper manhattan...

[doncat]

0.13" here with some loud thunder earlier...10.37" for month.

[SACRUS]

Made it to 72 briefly as the sun poked out for about 25 mins closer to 1:30/2:00.  Cloudy again now , down to 68.

[the_other_guy]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

With 0.25" rain through 12:08 pm, New York City's Central Park has now reached 10.01" rain for September. September is the record-breaking 3rd consecutive month with 10" or more rainfall. Records go back to 1869.

Absolutely disgusting.

Only thing worse would be that drought out west

[Brian5671]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

With 0.25" rain through 12:08 pm, New York City's Central Park has now reached 10.01" rain for September. September is the record-breaking 3rd consecutive month with 10" or more rainfall. Records go back to 1869.

I wonder if we'll get a couple tropical systems in October...can we go for 4 months?!?!?

[bluewave]

Getting 10” of rain each month from July to September is an impressive feat even in South Florida. Miami still hasn’t been able to pull it off. But several other stations have.

Monthly Total Precipitation for MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AP, FL
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jul	Aug	Sep	Season
1941	15.33	5.01	8.01	28.35
1939	13.85	11.34	6.70	31.89
1947	13.51	6.66	10.71	30.88
2002	12.76	6.55	6.48	25.79
2013	12.70	4.43	10.47	27.60
2017	12.45	8.57	14.97	35.99
1946	11.78	5.13	5.24	22.15
1985	11.23	11.88	8.59	31.70
1988	10.90	7.89	3.09	21.88
2019	10.54	15.74	3.25	29.53
2014	10.29	9.07	7.25	26.61
2020	10.26	7.44	10.92	28.62

 

Monthly Total Precipitation for MIAMI OPA LOCKA AP, FL
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jul	Aug	Sep	Season
2002	13.11	7.10	4.83	25.04
2014	12.97	8.45	8.88	30.30
2017	11.73	14.11	16.70	42.54
2009	11.53	7.87	9.74	29.14
2013	10.91	4.54	8.23	23.68
2004	10.26	10.88	12.60	33.74

 

Monthly Total Precipitation for MIAMI KENDALL TAMIAMI EXEC AP, FL
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jul	Aug	Sep	Season
2000	14.74	9.46	6.79	30.99
2006	14.16	9.10	6.21	29.47
2013	11.73	3.48	4.12	19.33
2014	10.92	4.82	5.84	21.58
2020	10.53	2.99	7.82	21.34
2001	10.22	8.74	13.52	32.48
2012	10.10	12.78	11.30	34.18

 

Monthly Total Precipitation for NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, FL
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jul	Aug	Sep	Season
2006	12.16	11.60	7.50	31.26
2017	11.24	15.55	18.03	44.82
2015	10.15	2.78	6.75	19.68

[lee59]

At least in my area the amount of rain is a little deceiving. The reason I say that is we seem to get it all at once and then nothing for weeks. It is not like it has been raining day after day. My grass has actually turned brown in spots and needed water numerous times in the past few months. 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

At least in my area the amount of rain is a little deceiving. The reason I say that is we seem to get it all at once and then nothing for weeks. It is not like it has been raining day after day. My grass has actually turned brown in spots and needed water numerous times in the past few months. 

I had almost no burnout here all spring/summer which is rare.  Never took out the lawn sprinkler even once

[lee59]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I had almost no burnout here all spring/summer which is rare.  Never took out the lawn sprinkler even once

Yea probably the case in a lot of areas. My area missed a lot of the thunderstorm activity that other areas would get.

[donsutherland1]

An area of showers and thundershowers moved through the region late this morning and early this afternoon. A total of 0.27" of rain fell in New York City's Central Park pushing the monthly rainfall total to 10.03". As a result, New York City has seen a record 3 consecutive months with 10" or more of rain. Records go back to 1869.

In addition, 10" or more of rain each month from July-September is unprecedented this far north. In 1894 and again in 1945, Downtown Charleston, SC (32.78°N) saw 10" or more of rain during this period. In 1946, Wilmington, NC (34.21°N) saw 10" or more of rain during this period. Then, in 2018, Dunn (4 NW), NC (35.31°N) recorded 10" or more during July, August, and September.

Year-to-date rainfall in New York City is now 51.96". That ranks 2021 as New York City's 33rd wettest year on record.

In the Northern Plains, today witnessed searing heat. The thermometer topped out at 98° at Bismarck, which surpassed the daily mark of 97° from 1905. This is also the latest 98° or above reading on record.

This evening, a few isolated showers and thundershowers are possible in parts of the region, but skies will clear. Tomorrow through Friday will feature plentiful sunshine and cool temperatures.

2021 remains on course to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area.

There is strong consensus on the long-range guidance that October will be an unseasonably warm month. The first half could feature much above normal readings in the Northern Plains into Central Canada. Overall, the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas appear to be in line with a warmer to much warmer than normal October.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop during October.

The SOI was +36.90 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.474 today.

On September 26 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.081 (RMM). The September 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.823 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.3° (1.1° above normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, lee59 said:

Yea probably the case in a lot of areas. My area missed a lot of the thunderstorm activity that other areas would get.

we've all had more than enough rain this year

my ideal yearly rainfall is 40 inches

[mjr]

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

An area of showers and thundershowers moved through the region late this morning and early this afternoon. A total of 0.27" of rain fell in New York City's Central Park pushing the monthly rainfall total to 10.03". As a result, New York City has seen a record 3 consecutive months with 10" or more of rain. Records go back to 1869.

In addition, 10" or more of rain each month from July-September is unprecedented this far north. In 1894 and again in 1945, Downtown Charleston, SC (32.78°N) saw 10" or more of rain during this period. In 1946, Wilmington, NC (34.21°N) saw 10" or more of rain during this period. Then, in 2018, Dunn (4 NW), NC (35.31°N) recorded 10" or more during July, August, and September.

Year-to-date rainfall in New York City is now 51.96". That ranks 2021 as New York City's 33rd wettest year on record.

In the Northern Plains, today witnessed searing heat. The thermometer topped out at 98° at Bismarck, which surpassed the daily mark of 97° from 1905. This is also the latest 98° or above reading on record.

This evening, a few isolated showers and thundershowers are possible in parts of the region, but skies will clear. Tomorrow through Friday will feature plentiful sunshine and cool temperatures.

2021 remains on course to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area.

There is strong consensus on the long-range guidance that October will be an unseasonably warm month. The first half could feature much above normal readings in the Northern Plains into Central Canada. Overall, the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas appear to be in line with a warmer to much warmer than normal October.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop during October.

The SOI was +36.90 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.474 today.

On September 26 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.081 (RMM). The September 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.823 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.3° (1.1° above normal).

 

September will end up with a mean temperature above 70, probably around 70.3. The Central Park thermometer

tried its best to make sure that it would not happen but the month ended one day too early. 

 

A few weeks ago someone was going to write a letter concerning the foliage issue to the powers that be. I wonder if anything

ever came of that. 

w 

[dmillz25]

56 here.

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, mjr said:

September will end up with a mean temperature above 70, probably around 70.3. The Central Park thermometer

tried its best to make sure that it would not happen but the month ended one day too early. 

 

A few weeks ago someone was going to write a letter concerning the foliage issue to the powers that be. I wonder if anything

ever came of that. 

w 

If I correctly recall the posted message, the letter had been sent and the regional headquarters was going to take a closer look. So far, nothing has changed at the Park.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and cooler. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 68°

Newark: 73°

Philadelphia: 71°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 71.0°; 15-Year: 72.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 72.6°; 15-Year: 74.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 73.9°; 15-Year: 75.1°

Dry but cool weather will continue through Friday.

[lee59]

53 degrees here and still falling slowly.

[ForestHillWx]

47( windows are wide open. 

[lee59]

Would not be surprised to see some frost in the northern and western areas over the next day or two. Some temperatures in the 30s this morning in the Catskills.

[CIK62]

The last two days of September are averaging 63degs.(56/70), or -2.

Month to date is  71.0[1.4].       September will end at  70.4[+1.2]      September reached 10.03".

Reached 75* here yesterday in an up/down day.

First 10 days of October looking somewhat AN, but w/o any breakouts either way..... say 57/68 average for the period, versus 54/67, Normal.

Today:   66-71, nw. wind, p. cloudy.

56*(60%RH) here at 6am, m. clear.    After 3hrs. at 56*, 57* at 9am.     60* by 10am.     62* at Noon.    64* at 1pm.        67* at 3pm.       Reached 68* at 3:30pm.

[bluewave]

September 29th is the 2nd latest in the fall that HPN has dropped below 50°. It’s currently at 49°. All the top 5 latest dates have been since 2015.

Weather Conditions For:

White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY. KHPN 

29 Sep 6:56 am

49

First/Last Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Difference
2018	06-12 (2018)	49	10-12 (2018)	47	121
2017	06-09 (2017)	47	09-29 (2017)	47	111
2002	06-08 (2002)	48	09-29 (2002)	48	112
1970	05-30 (1970)	44	09-29 (1970)	42	121
1968	05-28 (1968)	46	09-29 (1968)	49	123
2005	05-25 (2005)	46	09-28 (2005)	46	125
2015	06-02 (2015)	48	09-27 (2015)	47	116
1980	06-14 (1980)	47	09-27 (1980)	44	104
2016	05-21 (2016)	48	09-25 (2016)	44	126

[MJO812]

59 here

[RippleEffect]

22 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is now the wettest September on record at Newark. Wet September patterns in the past have been much cooler. So this will be the first in the top 5 wettest to average above 70°.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Avg  Temperature
1	2021	10.32	73.2°
2	1944	10.28	68.2°
3	1999	9.38	69.3°
4	1975	9.00	64.3°
5	1933	8.33	68.0°

How did the winters end up those years for Newark if you don’t mind telling me?

[Brian5671]

got down to 47 here

[lee59]

Down to 52.3 here, 55 now in Central Park. Seems to be a little chillier than what was forecast this A.M.

[weathermedic]

Made it down to 56 at my station. 

[SnoSki14]

No cold air in sight for October. Probably won't see a BN day after this week till November. 

Delayed frost and leaf change guaranteed though a sneaky late October snowfall wouldn't shock me. 

[wdrag]

So, nothing yet, but am on the edge of another thread.  This one like the 10+ Sept for longest monthly stretch of 10+, this one for 7 or 8+" of rain in October (teaming with the 3 prior months for a first time ever). Nothing in my stats on this but I think we're heading wet. It's not directly tropical related the first half of the month, more of a synoptic scale cool season batches of of heavy rain that may begin late this weekend through the 9th.  The second half off the month might be tropical related---long-long ways to go to gain some confidence.  I'll probably wait til Fri evening on this.  

I guess the only other thing i can say on this: These brief weather predicting icons of 5+ consec days of dry weather are unfair to the skill of our industry in the northeast USA. We're just not that good at predicting 5 gorgeous days in a row- barring a big anomalous stationary ridge aloft overhead.

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

So, nothing yet, but am on the edge of another thread.  This one like the 10+ Sept for longest monthly stretch of 10+, this one for 7 or 8+" of rain in October (teaming with the 3 prior months for a first time ever). Nothing in my stats on this but I think we're heading wet. It's not directly tropical related the first half of the month, more of a synoptic scale cool season batches of of heavy rain that may begin late this weekend through the 9th.  The second half off the month might be tropical related---long-long ways to go to gain some confidence.  I'll probably wait til Fri evening on this.  

I guess the only other thing i can say on this: These brief weather predicting icons of 5+ consec days of dry weather are unfair to the skill of our industry in the northeast USA. We're just not that good at predicting 5 gorgeous days in a row- barring a big anomalous stationary ridge aloft overhead.

yeah alot of times the models will show 7-10 days with little rain, but look at yesterday-that snuck up on us within 48 hrs

[SACRUS]

Down to 50 last night, looks cooler through Saturday (10/2) before warming up Sun (10/3) and  Mon (10/4) could see last surge of near 80 degree warmth sneak in depending on clouds.  Cut off / ULL into next week before more ridging towards next weekend (10/8).