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Tropical Storm Henri


wxeyeNH
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Henri is moving north-northeastward, or 020 degrees, at 12 kt.  The
steering pattern appears fairly well established now with a cut off
low located over the central Appalachians and a ridge building to
the east and northeast of Henri.  This pattern should cause the
storm to accelerate to the north or north-northeast today followed
by a slight bend to the left on Sunday.  The latest run of the GFS
has shifted to the east, but overall the models are focused in on
landfall being between central Long Island and Rhode Island on
Sunday.  However, users are reminded to not focus on the center
itself, as impacts will extend well away from the center, especially
to the east.  The new NHC track forecast is a little to the east of
the previous one and very near the best-performing models, the
consensus aids.

 

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18 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

Got me too with the graphics. I was just looking back on the east trend that started around 18z and tried to figure out why the NHC moved it west and have not adjusted east. My more emotionally regulated thought was in uncertainty, if it is close to such a large population center, sit on it and get everyone prepared until more confidence in the alternative to avoid the mental whiplash/windshield wiper effect.  

Yeah... the NHC agenda is entirely disconnected and not apart of the IMC ( industrial media complex) - lol.

I am not impugning NHC at all.

In fact, their hands are cuffed -wtf are they supposed to do. They are charged with informing of these sort of calamities to a society with dimmed hearing because the din of pop cultural stimulus has it that no one can really hear the "urgency" if they are even looking.

So yeah, sit and wait and ... add 5 mph so that hurricane can take the podium and the flashing lights and "Twits" in the audience will look up from their iPhone - proverbially speaking.

I wish some RECON pilot would spill the 'soft conspiracy' that they are routinely phoning in 70 and getting 80 out of NHC's decision makers but, that's sci-fi paranoid talk...  ( seriously, don't take that j/k)

anyway, the IMC is purely about money and needs some sort of non competitive but financed ( somehow ) media alternative - such that people can choose from it, or CNN/FOX/ABC/NBC/CBS fab five of marketing stimulus oil for lubing their Machiavellian economic engine.

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3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

 

What causes the westward bias of some.of these models?

IMHO, (and this is probably over-simplified), if Henri is stronger, it gets pulled farther west by the cut-off low.  If it's weaker, it stays a little farther east.  I'm just basing this on the modeling trends over the last 36 hours...

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  • dendrite changed the title to Hurricane Henri
1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said:

IMHO, (and this is probably over-simplified), if Henri is stronger, it gets pulled farther west by the cut-off low.  If it's weaker, it stays a little farther east.  I'm just basing this on the modeling trends over the last 36 hours...

The model strength of the ULL and how far it digs down and also strength intensity. I think if the storm is stronger it may help it get tugged west due to the mid and upper level flow helping to steer the storm along path of least resistance. 

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3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

IMHO, (and this is probably over-simplified), if Henri is stronger, it gets pulled farther west by the cut-off low.  If it's weaker, it stays a little farther east.  I'm just basing this on the modeling trends over the last 36 hours...

You in Bristol right now? My daughter is.

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... the NHC agenda is entirely disconnected and not apart of the IMC ( industrial media complex) - lol.

I am not impugning NHC at all.

In fact, their hands are cuffed -wtf are they supposed to do. They are charged with informing of these sort of calamities to a society with dimmed hearing because the din of pop cultural stimulus has it that no one can really hear the "urgency" if they are even looking.

So yeah, sit and wait and ... add 5 mph so that hurricane can take the podium and the flashing lights and "Twits" in the audience will look up from their iPhone - proverbially speaking.

I wish some RECON pilot would spill the 'soft conspiracy' that they are routinely phoning in 70 and getting 80 out of NHC's decision makers but, that's sci-fi paranoid talk...  ( seriously, don't take that j/k)

anyway, the IMC is purely about money and needs some sort of non competitive but financed ( somehow ) media alternative - such that people can choose from it, or CNN/FOX/ABC/NBC/CBS fab five of marketing stimulus oil for lubing their Machiavellian economic engine.

Can you shut the **** up? 

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9 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

What causes the westward bias of some.of these models?

Some of the mesoscale models have an overly amplified bias that tended to result in a more W/NW track. I imagine that has some parallels to winter nor’easter biases.

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  • dendrite changed the title to Tropical Storm Henri
  • dendrite unpinned this topic

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