August 2021

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good afternoon BW. I did receive a short response from Mr. Kenneth Boutin, ASOS Program Manager, NOAA, NWS, ASOS Program Office, as follows:

”Ahhh, I see now. Let me work this and I’ll see what I can do. KB”

I thanked him in reply and now we wait again. As always ….

Just show him this….

 

 

Yeah, I would be curious to see how they respond to a simple analysis like we have done on this forum.

 

JFK has seen a similar rise in JJA temperatures as the other stations. You can see the big giveaway that the NYC ASOS went from the sun to deep shade. Notice how the average minimum JJA temperature rose in line with the other stations since 1951-1980. But the average high from 1951-1980 to 2011-2020 is virtually unchanged. 

JJA 1950-1981 to 2011-2020 temperature change

NYC

max….83.0…83.2….+0.2

min…..66.0…68.2….+2.2

EWR

max…83.4…85.3…..+1.9

min….65.8….67.8…..+2.0

LGA

max…82.0….84.4…..+2.4

min….66.8….69.9…..+3.1

JFK

max….80.5….82.5…..+2.0

min…..65.4….67.7……+2.3

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Weakens it from there into what’s probably a transitioning cyclone by 102 hours with an expanding windfield 

yeah so even if you're 100 miles west of the center you'll get high winds as well as the heavier rainfall that usually occurs west of the center when these storms get up here

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Just show him this….

 

 

 

Yeah, I would be curious to see how they respond to a simple analysis like we have done on this forum.

 

JFK has seen a similar rise in JJA temperatures as the other stations. You can see the big giveaway that the NYC ASOS went from the sun to deep shade. Notice how the average minimum JJA temperature rose in line with the other stations since 1951-1980. But the average high from 1951-1980 to 2011-2020 is virtually unchanged. 

JJA 1950-1981 to 2011-2020 temperature change

NYC

max….83.0…83.2….+0.2

min…..66.0…68.2….+2.2

EWR

max…83.4…85.3…..+1.9

min….65.8….67.8…..+2.0

LGA

max…82.0….84.4…..+2.4

min….66.8….69.9…..+3.1

JFK

max….80.5….82.5…..+2.0

min…..65.4….67.7……+2.3

Also look at how NYC mins have risen in concert with the airports, but the maxes have not, unlike the airports.

 

[crossbowftw3]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

yeah so even if you're 100 miles west of the center you'll get high winds as well as the heavier rainfall that usually occurs west of the center when these storms get up here

 

This entire subforum is in the game for now but I would anticipate some pushes back East until we settle in on one common solution. As others on the NE thread are noting wind threat probably won’t be the major stickler but flooding—surge and fresh—would be exacerbated.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

This entire subforum is in the game for now but I would anticipate some pushes back East until we settle in on one common solution. As others on the NE thread are noting wind threat probably won’t be the major stickler but flooding—surge and fresh—would be exacerbated.

slow moving storm that might even stall?
 

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

slow moving storm that might even stall?
 

That’s the school of thought being presented, any strong TC would need to absolutely book it to prevent weakening in these waters. In 36-48 hours a strong cat2/3 quickly weakens to a cat 1 that’s likely commencing an ET transition because of the slower movement speed. Surge and freshwater flooding would get exacerbated if/where this thing decides to park itself.

[dWave]

4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think that has allot to do with the fact that it’s not being forced up the coast after a Carolina hit later in the season via a trough. That scenario always seems to really degrade storms. 
Regardless of direct impact, days of large swells will cause beach erosion and lead to beach closures right during prime beach season. 

Its been a kinda tough season..everytime I try go to beach its cool/rainy, or warm but water closed for shark sightings. Sun I'll be at the 5 boro bike tour, been counting on good, mostly dry weather but it's looking more iffy??

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

That’s the school of thought being presented, any strong TC would need to absolutely book it to prevent weakening in these waters. In 36-48 hours a strong cat2/3 quickly weakens to a cat 1 that’s likely commencing an ET transition because of the slower movement speed. Surge and freshwater flooding would get exacerbated if/where this thing decides to park itself.

Like Edouard,  I remember that one clearly,  But that stalled too far to the east for anyone to get rain from it.

[gravitylover]

Yup I'm gonna ask for a point forecast... Friday afternoon/evening at Citi Field looks ok doesn't it? Dry and warm, right? Thanx 

[OrangeCTWX]

Good to know , no wonder why the HWRF and GFS were so similar. HMON track was similar but the intensity was wayyyy less.

[rclab]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Just show him this….

 

 

 

Yeah, I would be curious to see how they respond to a simple analysis like we have done on this forum.

 

JFK has seen a similar rise in JJA temperatures as the other stations. You can see the big giveaway that the NYC ASOS went from the sun to deep shade. Notice how the average minimum JJA temperature rose in line with the other stations since 1951-1980. But the average high from 1951-1980 to 2011-2020 is virtually unchanged. 

JJA 1950-1981 to 2011-2020 temperature change

NYC

max….83.0…83.2….+0.2

min…..66.0…68.2….+2.2

EWR

max…83.4…85.3…..+1.9

min….65.8….67.8…..+2.0

LGA

max…82.0….84.4…..+2.4

min….66.8….69.9…..+3.1

JFK

max….80.5….82.5…..+2.0

min…..65.4….67.7……+2.3

I just received an almost immediate response as follows:

”I have engaged NWS Eastern Regional HQ for an assessment and course of action. I’ll keep you posted but request your patience in the process. KB”

when and if I get through copy and paste 101 I’ll certainly send it to Mr. KB. Thank you. As always ….. 

[L.I.Pete]

17 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Yup I'm gonna ask for a point forecast... Friday afternoon/evening at Citi Field looks ok doesn't it? Dry and warm, right? Thanx 

Yeah...it's poured at every concert I've been to so far this summer...and I'll be there, so take that into account . That said, looks like it might be dry for DeadCo Friday.

[nyrangers1022]

Chuckled at the GFS last night.  Now I'm pulled into tracking Henri.  Will give it another 24-48 to fill up gas cans

[David-LI]

Not a meteorologist, only a pro weenie so take with a grain of salt. It seems that the Euro started Henri weaker than what it is currently, and GFS started stronger. Henry is currently at 70mph sustained winds, close to Hurricane status. Safe to assume a stronger intensification will lead to a more northwest track compared to a more eastern track if Henri remains weak as shown by the euro?

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

uhm with that track we're all getting it, remember a hurricane isn't a point.

 

That’s not true. That track is a Bob track with a much weaker storm. you need significant westward movement for all of us to “get it.”

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, jfklganyc said:

That’s not true. That track is a Bob track with a much weaker storm. you need significant westward movement for all of us to “get it.”

It would be really tough for it to swing that far west though not impossible.

The WAR has to end up a lot stronger, Henri needs to become a lot stronger and then maybe it'll happen.

I do think if it did manage to get that far west that it'd be a pretty strong system. 

[Prue11]

Hope this trends east. Isaaias was enough last year

[doncat]

Meanwhile....very muggy 80/76 currently.

[uncle W]

59 minutes ago, rclab said:

I just receive an almost immediate response as follows:

”I have engaged NWS Eastern Regional HQ for an assessment and course of action. I’ll keep you posted but request your patience in the process. KB”

when and if I get through copy and paste 101 I’ll certainly send it to Mr. KB. Thank you. As always ….. 

Its hard to believe Upton wasn't aware of this and could have fixed it sooner...while they are at it find a better place to measure snow and snow depth...not to mention their wind reports...

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, justinj said:

Hope this trends east. Isaaias was enough last year

Climo argues further east think cape and islands but every system is different 

[Rtd208]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Climo argues further east think cape and islands but every system is different 

Climo might but that WAR doesn't. 

[bluewave]

75° dew point at JFK. This is the first 6 year stretch with 10 or more days reaching the 75° dew point mark. Just another part of our more subtropical climate.

Kennedy Intl   CLOUDY    81  75  

[doncat]

8 minutes ago, uncle W said:

Its hard to believe Upton wasn't aware of this and could have fixed it sooner...while they are at it find a better place to measure snow and snow depth...not to mention their wind reports...

Lol the wind reports...variable at 7 mph usually.

[Rtd208]

I think we should have a much better picture on how Henri may or may not affect our area over the next 24-36 hours. I would still learn towards mostly coastal impacts (which could be substantial) for the jersey shore and NYC metro with higher impacts across LI. 

[crossbowftw3]

3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I think we should have a much better picture on how Henri may or may not affect our area over the next 24-36 hours. I would still learn towards mostly coastal impacts (which could be substantial) for the jersey shore and NYC metro with higher impacts across LI. 

That’s my idea as well for the moment. Ultimate reality probably doesn’t stray from that, but maybe 25-50 or so miles of error.

[jm1220]

Some serious heavy rain in central PA. Altoona airport reporting 2.16” rain in an hour. Feeder bands combining with upslope on the SE flow. 

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, L.I.Pete said:

Yeah...it's poured at every concert I've been to so far this summer...and I'll be there, so take that into account . That said, looks like it might be dry for DeadCo Friday.

Lol. It was dry for the one we went to do maybe I'll break your streak by being at this show. 

[Stormlover74]

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

If the storm does slow down as it comes up here and pivots around, it wouldn't make landfall as a hurricane. It would probably do so as a 50-60mph tropical storm that would be known for coastal flooding due to it likely expanding its size by then and rain. The 12z GFS panels show that kind of wind when it would make it up here. It would pull in lots of cooler water quick which would weaken it. The only way it would really maintain strength is if it moves N or NW fast into the area as it strengthened where waters are warm enough or it phases into the trough somehow which is how Sandy strengthened Perfect Storm 1991 style and pivoted NW. This is no 1938-redux or anything like that. It could be pretty disruptive but not catastrophic like Sandy. Those comparisons should be thrown out.

[BombsAway1288]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If the storm does slow down as it comes up here and pivots around, it wouldn't make landfall as a hurricane. It would probably do so as a 50-60mph tropical storm that would be known for coastal flooding due to it likely expanding its size by then and rain. The 12z GFS panels show that kind of wind when it would make it up here. It would pull in lots of cooler water quick which would weaken it. The only way it would really maintain strength is if it moves N or NW fast into the area as it strengthened where waters are warm enough or it phases into the trough somehow which is how Sandy strengthened Perfect Storm 1991 style and pivoted NW. This is no 1938-redux or anything like that. It could be pretty disruptive but not catastrophic like Sandy. Those comparisons should be thrown out.

Well said.

This might be a landfalling TC somewhere in the Northeast but it won't be a super strong/windy system.

Will also be likely weakening upon approach