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SVR-PRE (ELSA) potential NYC subforum Tue-Fri morning July 6-9, 2021


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SPC AC 081819

   Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 2
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0119 PM CDT Thu Jul 08 2021

   Valid 081630Z - 091200Z
Northeast States...
   Clusters of showers/thunderstorms are ongoing at midday across the
   region, particularly across far southeast New York into western New
   England. More considerable cloud cover is also generally prevalent
   across the region as compared to prior days. More appreciable
   destabilization will tend to remain confined to the Chesapeake/DE
   Bays towards the New York City tri-state area, where some cloud
   breaks are noted within morning visible satellite imagery. Although
   the degree of destabilization is a bit uncertain, isolated severe
   thunderstorms will be possible across the region with thunderstorm
   wind damage as the primary severe risk. Areas such as northeast
   PA/northern NJ into southern NY/NYC Metro and southern New England
   will continue to be reevaluated and monitored for a somewhat greater
   severe risk later today, which could include potential for some
   transient supercells

560B2A28-F363-4D22-8FA0-4F3BE065A4D0.gif

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Flash flood warning for most of NE NJ and the LHV. Already 1.5-2.5" of rain has fallen.

Flash Flood Warning
CTC001-NJC003-013-031-NYC087-119-082215-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FF.W.0010.210708T1915Z-210708T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service New York NY
315 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southern Fairfield County in southern Connecticut...
  Bergen County in northeastern New Jersey...
  Northeastern Essex County in northeastern New Jersey...
  Eastern Passaic County in northeastern New Jersey...
  Rockland County in southeastern New York...
  Southern Westchester County in southeastern New York...

* Until 615 PM EDT.

* At 315 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of
  rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1.5 inches in 3
  hours. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
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