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80F

 

Today reminds me of what summer days out on Eastern Long Island used to be like: temperate days, cool nights, rarely needed the AC at night.

Geez, the climate out here has changed so drastically in such a short time…it is scary. It is all in the dewpoint and most of it is in the last 20 years.

8D3F9F8D-9EE6-4C53-AC0D-480B830BE85A.jpeg

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8 hours ago, bluewave said:

"***( 

The weather instruments at Belvedere Castle have long adorned the top.
There used to be a government meteorologist here in the city to keep an
eye on them. But now the nearest meteorologist is 60 miles that way.
***"
Copyright 2003 ABC Inc., WABC-TV Inc.

Sheesh! Central Park is a great place.  But that blows my mind.  Probably economy and budget issues, cum bureaucracy at its worst.   Pity the poor Mets who get blamed.   No met for 60 miles.  

 

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A period of above to much above normal temperatures will develop starting tomorrow. Several days of above to much above normal readings are likely through mid-week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +16.19 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.685 today.

On July 21 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.576 (RMM). The July 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.726 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.7° (0.8° below normal).

 

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12 hours ago, bluewave said:

I have never heard of an ASOS system being moved after it was built. The best time to have done that was before they installed it back in 1995. I don’t think there is a budget for moving weather stations.

a better idea might be to have a back up weather station installed elsewhere in the Park (like in the Sheep Meadow) and use that data to correct the other one.  Of course installing a second unit there would require $$$$$

Why did we switch to  ASOS?  The old way was more accurate.  Automation = laziness.

 

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The last 7 days of July are averaging 79degs.(70/88), or +1.

Month to date is  76.3[-1.3].        July should end near   76.9[-0.6].

The Summer to date at  54 Days In is +0.6.

July should be the third BN Month this year.      

So when was the last year with at least 7  BN Months(just in case)?     Anyone know?    Thanks.

70*(85%RH), here at 6am,  overcast, streets wet.    69* at 6:30.         Reached 82* at 2:30pm.

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This is the 15th day in July so far with rain in NYC. It’s the most since 1996. So NYC is getting closer to only the 3rd 10.00” July.
 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Precipitation >= .01 
Missing Count
1 1871 20 0
2 1992 16 0
- 1988 16 0
- 1969 16 0
- 1958 16 0
- 1945 16 0
- 1919 16 0
- 1915 16 0
- 1901 16 0
- 1887 16 0
3 1996 15 0
- 1938 15 0
- 1897 15 0
- 1889 15 0
  2021 15 6

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 1889 11.89 0
2 1975 11.77 0
3 1897 9.56 0
4 2021 9.21 7
5 1928 8.89 0
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No threads from myself: This afternoon seems like I-95 or south of I78, especially central/s NJ for an isolated or sct potentially SVR storm.  SPC HREF starts a bit further northwest of I95.  Confidence low. Will only react w a thread if SPC upgrades or a watch issues. 

 

This coming workweek: Low confidence w best chance Thursday when wind fields aloft are strongest.  However, Thursday on the 00z/25 EC OP is not quite as robust as the 12z/24 cycle. Laying low for now. 

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Morning thoughts…

Earlier this morning, New York City picked up 0.49”. That brought the July total to 9.70”. As a result 2021 moved past 1897 when 9.56” of rain fell to become the 3rd wettest July on record.

Today will be variably cloudy and more humid. Showers and thundershowers are possible this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will rise to the middle and upper 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 83°

Newark: 89°

Philadelphia: 88°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.1°; 15-Year: 86.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 86.9°; 15-Year: 88.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.8°; 15-Year: 88.8°

Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and very warm.

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22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

With all the blocking, areas just N and W of NYC could see 50s next weekend.

FFDD045E-BC76-445B-B7F2-CA946E0CC2C9.thumb.png.5a818ed5a83b8187e709c71eca1b764d.png

 

Just had two mornings of 58 for the low in Muttontown on Friday & Saturday.  I’ll take these cooler summer mornings as they come, a welcomed break.

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29 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Just had two mornings of 58 for the low in Muttontown on Friday & Saturday.  I’ll take these cooler summer mornings as they come, a welcomed break.

This is the first time in the post 2010 era that Newark experienced such a big monthly maximum temperature drop from June to July.

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Jun
Jul
Season
Mean 96 100 +4
2021 103 97 -6
2020 93 96 +3
2019 93 99 +6
2018 96 98 +2
2017 99 98 -1
2016 91 99 +8
2015 93 98 +5
2014 92 96 +4
2013 96 101 +5
2012 99 104 +5
2011 102 108 +6
2010 98 103 +5
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74/68 and .27 in the bucket from the earlier rains.  Satellite does show more breaks in the clouds so we will see how warm it gets today.  Warmer pattern today through Thu (7/29), with Tue perhaps being the hottest day with 850 temps >16c in parts and may allow the warmer spots mid to perhaps upper 90s range in the extreme.  We are skirting the north edge of the heat and bit more ridging would mean stronger heat and cooler if the flow pushed more northerly.  So could see a day (wed) back near normal before warmup ahead of the front.

 Beyond there a bit back and forth next weekend Fri (7/30) - Sun (8/1) where there looks to be cooler air followed by a brief return (12-24) hours of some heat and that looks like Sunday (8/1).  Could be interesting with such a contrast of the heat and cooler weather near the regios.

 

  Beyond there Aug looks to open cooler before more heat from the west pushes east and we'll see if the W. Atlantic ridge builds west in the Wed 8/4 and beyond period.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

With all the blocking, areas just N and W of NYC could see 50s next weekend.

FFDD045E-BC76-445B-B7F2-CA946E0CC2C9.thumb.png.5a818ed5a83b8187e709c71eca1b764d.png

 

Next weekend looks interesting as the 00Z ECM 24 hours later has heat just south of the region and temps near 90 on Sunday 8/1 for a brief period.  With still a week out you wonder if it trends more cooler (troughy) or if it corrects warmer.

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