July 2021

[lee59]

Nice day today, high temperature 81 degrees.

[crossbowftw3]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

tomorrow's forecast is dependent on how the mcs/derecho evolves over the upper midwest. all options are on the table from possible svr weather to boring stratiform rain all day 

First signs of possible initiation of the predecessor supercells may be underway across MN soon so we shall see how the models handle the MCS once it gets established, slight risk is good where it stands now. Instability may be limited for us close to and north of NYC proper but shear is notably strong.

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, uncle W said:

2007 was in the 50's on the 2nd and 24th...This summer is a little similar to the 1963 and 1964 Summers...near 100 to start and cooler ending...both Augusts were cool in 63 and 64...I doubt we see anything like those years but who knows...

First time since 2007 that Newark had more 90° days in June than July.

 

Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jun	Jul	Difference
2021	12	11	-1
2020	5	17	+12
2019	4	14	+10
2018	5	9	+4
2017	5	9	+4
2016	3	16	+13
2015	4	11	+7
2014	2	8	+6
2013	4	15	+11
2012	6	16	+10
2011	4	22	+18
2010	13	21	+8
2009	0	1	+1
2008	6	11	+5
2007	6	4	-2

[LoboLeader1]

Topped out at 79 here for the day.

[forkyfork]

the divide between nj and eastern areas continues. ewr 87 lga 82 bdr 80 isp 80 jfk 83 nyc 81

[doncat]

83° here today...0.53" rain...9.86" for month.

[bluewave]

48 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the divide between nj and eastern areas continues. ewr 87 lga 82 bdr 80 isp 80 jfk 83 nyc 81

The three stations Essex and Hudson are running warmer than all other stations by a wider margin than we usually see. 
 

90° days

Harrison...25

Caldwell...26

Newark..…27

SMQ..……..22

LGA…………17

JFK………….6

FRG………….8

ISP…………..3

BDR…………8

 

[uncle W]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The three stations Essex and Hudson are running warmer than all other stations by a wider margin than we usually see. 
 

90° days

Harrison...25

Caldwell...26

Newark..…27

SMQ..……..22

LGA…………17

JFK………….6

FRG………….8

ISP…………..3

BDR…………8

 

I've had just as many as Newark...its been either hot and humid or warm and humid with showers...not a bad summer if you like T storms...

[donsutherland1]

Showers and thundershowers are possible tomorrow. Some of the rain could be heavy. That will add to the 10.62" of rain that has already fallen at Central Park making July 2021 the 3rd wettest July on record. At present, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will go on to record 50.00" or more of precipitation this year.

July will likely end with an unseasonable push of cool air. Temperatures Saturday morning will likely fall into the 50s outside New York City.

Even as an unseasonably cool air mass pushes into parts of the Northeast, record-breaking heat could develop in northwestern Canada. That heat will likely persist through the upcoming weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +1.05 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.070 today.

On July 26 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.290 (RMM). The July 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.205 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (1.4° below normal).

 

[SnoSki14]

Low to mid 50s looking likely Saturday morning here. 

That's a few weeks ahead of schedule. Usually mid-late August is when we get these shot across the bow cool downs. 

Fits the rushed theme this season really well.

[Tatamy]

3 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

that's badass

It was quite loud.  It was actually a fairly small local cell that set out some close CTG strikes.

[Tatamy]

10 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

can you estimate how far that strike is away from your house?

I figure it was about a mile away near a local shopping center.

[Tatamy]

8 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

I figure it was about a mile away near a local shopping center.

This is what a quarter mile away looks like.

[SACRUS]

7/28

EWR: 87
PHL: 86
ACY: 85
New Brunswck: 84
TTN: 84
JFK: 83
LGA: 82
TEB: 82
NYC: 81
BLM: 81
ISP: 81

[uncle W]

record low for July 31st is 57 set in 1914...record low for August 1st is 59 set in 1895 and tied in 1964...I remember August 64 and the very cool first half of August 64...actually the first three weeks were very cool but the last ten days were warm to hot...baseball and weather were my main hobbies...when Mantle was hot the weather was cold...May 63 he almost hit a ball out of Yankee Stadium...he said it was the hardest ball he every hit...a few days later NYC set a record low of 39...latest 39 on record...August 64 he hits a 500ft home run to center at Yankee Stadium...two days later NYC set two record lows both 54 each morning...October 64 he hits a walk off home run in the world series...two days later NYC had its earliest 34 degree morning...August 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965 set many record lows...the 8/15/64 record low broke the record of 55 set in 1963...

 

[rclab]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

record low for July 31st is 57 set in 1914...record low for August 1st is 59 set in 1895 and tied in 1964...I remember August 64 and the very cool first half of August 64...actually the first three weeks were very cool but the last ten days were warm to hot...baseball and weather were my main hobbies...when Mantle was hot the weather was cold...May 63 he almost hit a ball out of Yankee Stadium...he said it was the hardest ball he every hit...a few days later NYC set a record low of 39...latest 39 on record...August 64 he hits a 500ft home run to center at Yankee Stadium...two days later NYC set two record lows both 54 each morning...October 64 he hits a walk off home run in the world series...two days later NYC had its earliest 34 degree morning...August 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965 set many record lows...the 8/15/64 record low broke the record of 55 set in 1963...

 

Early Sept 64 Unc.? I was a college Freshman and remember the NYC temperature dropped into the 40’s. As always ….

[RippleEffect]

First cool down of the summer. Very happy to see this! 72 tonight and than cooler every night for a week! It’s perfect after tomorrow

[CIK62]

The last 3 days of July are averaging 75degs.(67/82), or -3.

First 5 days of August at -7, perhaps?

Month to date is  76.6[-1.0].        July should end at  76.5[-1.0].

71*(90%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds.

Rain today:   CMC  0.7",  EURO  0.5",   GFS  0.4".       CMC/EURO way down from yesterday and the GFS is the same.      SREF  0.5".       Rain probably only between 3pm---9pm.

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, uncle W said:

record low for July 31st is 57 set in 1914...record low for August 1st is 59 set in 1895 and tied in 1964...I remember August 64 and the very cool first half of August 64...actually the first three weeks were very cool but the last ten days were warm to hot...baseball and weather were my main hobbies...when Mantle was hot the weather was cold...May 63 he almost hit a ball out of Yankee Stadium...he said it was the hardest ball he every hit...a few days later NYC set a record low of 39...latest 39 on record...August 64 he hits a 500ft home run to center at Yankee Stadium...two days later NYC set two record lows both 54 each morning...October 64 he hits a walk off home run in the world series...two days later NYC had its earliest 34 degree morning...August 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965 set many record lows...the 8/15/64 record low broke the record of 55 set in 1963...

 

Didnt LGA have sleet in late May in one of those years?

 

[bluewave]

Every warm up since late May has been followed by a cool down and heavy rain. So the pattern is continuing. After the highest temperatures peaked in late June, the warm ups haven’t been as intense.

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Max Temperature Departure	Precipitation
2021-05-20	76	2.4	0.00
2021-05-21	83	9.1	0.00
2021-05-22	96	21.8	0.00
2021-05-23	94	19.6	0.00
2021-05-24	68	-6.7	0.00
2021-05-25	81	6.0	0.00
2021-05-26	94	18.7	0.09
2021-05-27	87	11.4	0.01
2021-05-28	71	-4.9	1.15
2021-05-29	52	-24.2	0.58
2021-05-30	53	-23.5	1.15
2021-05-31	76	-0.8	T
2021-06-01	80	2.9	0.00
2021-06-02	79	1.6	T
2021-06-03	77	-0.8	0.41
2021-06-04	83	4.9	0.19
2021-06-05	95	16.6	0.00
2021-06-06	97	18.2	0.00
2021-06-07	95	15.9	0.04
2021-06-08	93	13.6	2.19
2021-06-09	96	16.2	0.53
2021-06-10	85	4.9	0.00
2021-06-11	73	-7.4	T
2021-06-12	72	-8.8	T
2021-06-13	78	-3.1	T
2021-06-14	78	-3.5	0.16
2021-06-15	85	3.2	0.01
2021-06-16	81	-1.1	0.00
2021-06-17	81	-1.5	0.00
2021-06-18	88	5.2	0.00
2021-06-19	93	9.9	0.05
2021-06-20	91	7.6	0.00
2021-06-21	92	8.3	T
2021-06-22	80	-4.0	0.17
2021-06-23	80	-4.3	0.00
2021-06-24	79	-5.5	0.00
2021-06-25	83	-1.8	0.00
2021-06-26	86	1.0	0.07
2021-06-27	95	9.7	0.00
2021-06-28	99	13.5	0.00
2021-06-29	102	16.3	0.00
2021-06-30	103	17.1	0.54
2021-07-01	89	2.9	0.94
2021-07-02	81	-5.3	1.53
2021-07-03	70	-16.4	0.05
2021-07-04	84	-2.6	0.00
2021-07-05	89	2.3	0.00
2021-07-06	97	10.2	0.55
2021-07-07	97	10.1	T
2021-07-08	88	1.0	0.08
2021-07-09	91	3.9	1.60
2021-07-10	86	-1.1	T
2021-07-11	82	-5.2	T
2021-07-12	93	5.8	0.69
2021-07-13	78	-9.3	0.01
2021-07-14	93	5.7	0.07
2021-07-15	91	3.7	T
2021-07-16	96	8.7	0.00
2021-07-17	93	5.7	2.28
2021-07-18	86	-1.2	T
2021-07-19	86	-1.2	T
2021-07-20	90	2.8	0.00
2021-07-21	85	-2.1	0.05
2021-07-22	85	-2.1	0.00
2021-07-23	86	-1.0	T
2021-07-24	85	-1.9	0.00
2021-07-25	87	0.1	0.37
2021-07-26	93	6.2	0.08
2021-07-27	94	7.3	T
2021-07-28	87	0.4	0.04

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will mostly cloudy today with showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rain could be heavy. A general 0.50”-1.00” rainfall is likely with some locally higher amounts. Temperatures will likely reach mainly the upper 70s and lower 80s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 77°

Newark: 80°

Philadelphia: 82°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 84.9°; 15-Year: 85.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 86.6°; 15-Year: 87.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.5°; 15-Year: 88.4°

Cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail through the weekend.

[LibertyBell]

48 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

It will mostly cloudy today with showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rain could be heavy. A general 0.50”-1.00” rainfall is likely with some locally higher amounts. Temperatures will likely reach mainly the upper 70s and lower 80s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 77°

Newark: 80°

Philadelphia: 82°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 84.9°; 15-Year: 85.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 86.6°; 15-Year: 87.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.5°; 15-Year: 88.4°

Cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail through the weekend.

Don what are the chances NYC beats its July rainfall record and the chances we get to one foot of monthly rainfall?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Every warm up since late May has been followed by a cool down and heavy rain. So the pattern is continuing. After the highest temperatures peaked in late June, the warm ups haven’t been as intense.

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Max Temperature Departure	Precipitation
2021-05-20	76	2.4	0.00
2021-05-21	83	9.1	0.00
2021-05-22	96	21.8	0.00
2021-05-23	94	19.6	0.00
2021-05-24	68	-6.7	0.00
2021-05-25	81	6.0	0.00
2021-05-26	94	18.7	0.09
2021-05-27	87	11.4	0.01
2021-05-28	71	-4.9	1.15
2021-05-29	52	-24.2	0.58
2021-05-30	53	-23.5	1.15
2021-05-31	76	-0.8	T
2021-06-01	80	2.9	0.00
2021-06-02	79	1.6	T
2021-06-03	77	-0.8	0.41
2021-06-04	83	4.9	0.19
2021-06-05	95	16.6	0.00
2021-06-06	97	18.2	0.00
2021-06-07	95	15.9	0.04
2021-06-08	93	13.6	2.19
2021-06-09	96	16.2	0.53
2021-06-10	85	4.9	0.00
2021-06-11	73	-7.4	T
2021-06-12	72	-8.8	T
2021-06-13	78	-3.1	T
2021-06-14	78	-3.5	0.16
2021-06-15	85	3.2	0.01
2021-06-16	81	-1.1	0.00
2021-06-17	81	-1.5	0.00
2021-06-18	88	5.2	0.00
2021-06-19	93	9.9	0.05
2021-06-20	91	7.6	0.00
2021-06-21	92	8.3	T
2021-06-22	80	-4.0	0.17
2021-06-23	80	-4.3	0.00
2021-06-24	79	-5.5	0.00
2021-06-25	83	-1.8	0.00
2021-06-26	86	1.0	0.07
2021-06-27	95	9.7	0.00
2021-06-28	99	13.5	0.00
2021-06-29	102	16.3	0.00
2021-06-30	103	17.1	0.54
2021-07-01	89	2.9	0.94
2021-07-02	81	-5.3	1.53
2021-07-03	70	-16.4	0.05
2021-07-04	84	-2.6	0.00
2021-07-05	89	2.3	0.00
2021-07-06	97	10.2	0.55
2021-07-07	97	10.1	T
2021-07-08	88	1.0	0.08
2021-07-09	91	3.9	1.60
2021-07-10	86	-1.1	T
2021-07-11	82	-5.2	T
2021-07-12	93	5.8	0.69
2021-07-13	78	-9.3	0.01
2021-07-14	93	5.7	0.07
2021-07-15	91	3.7	T
2021-07-16	96	8.7	0.00
2021-07-17	93	5.7	2.28
2021-07-18	86	-1.2	T
2021-07-19	86	-1.2	T
2021-07-20	90	2.8	0.00
2021-07-21	85	-2.1	0.05
2021-07-22	85	-2.1	0.00
2021-07-23	86	-1.0	T
2021-07-24	85	-1.9	0.00
2021-07-25	87	0.1	0.37
2021-07-26	93	6.2	0.08
2021-07-27	94	7.3	T
2021-07-28	87	0.4	0.04

How did Newark get to 87 yesterday?  Everyone else was 5 degrees or more colder.

 

[SACRUS]

The dog days of summer coming in with a miniature Maltese this year.   Cooler for a week or through 8/4.  Once past today's rains it looks mostly dry and very pleasant.  Fantastic summer weather. 

 

On to August :  Open 3 - 4 days cooler than normal, coolest open to August since 2013.  The western atlanic ridge continues to be hinted at expanding west in the 8/5 and beyond timeframe.  So the progression and extent of the westward movement will need to watch.  Transition from dry and below average to humid and above and then some heat looks likely as we move into the next weekend (8/6).   

[uncle W]

11 hours ago, rclab said:

Early Sept 64 Unc.? I was a college Freshman and remember the NYC temperature dropped into the 40’s. As always ….

9/16/64 NYC has a low of 48 breaking the record 49 set in 1961...that record was broken in 1966 with a low of 47 and it still stands...

[JerseyWx]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is looking like one of the stronger cold fronts that the Northeast has seen at the end of July in quite some time. The 850 mb temperatures in New England will be near the coldest on record since 1979. So it’s possible that places like EWR and NYC can see a rare dip below 60° for the end of July.

Upper 40's and lower 50's in the outer burbs, pretty impressive.

[lee59]

Lots of clouds here and a decent SSE breeze, not exactly severe weather criteria.

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don what are the chances NYC beats its July rainfall record and the chances we get to one foot of monthly rainfall?

 

I think we’’ probably fall short of both numbers, unless there are training thunderstorms. 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

I think we’’ probably fall short of both numbers, unless there are training thunderstorms. 

Tale of 2 months up this way-close to 10 inches of rain 7/1-7/8 less than half an inch since 7/8

[donsutherland1]

Through 7:41 pm, New York City had picked up 0.43" of rain, bringing July's total to 11.05". That is third highest July figure on record. In the wake of tonight's rainfall, fair but somewhat cooler than normal weather will take hold and continue through the weekend. Saturday could be especially cool. Temperatures will likely start out in the 50s outside of New York City.

Through much of July, the area of drought over northwestern North America has largely driven the upper air pattern. The MJO has played a much lesser role. Should that remain the case, much of August could see warm temperature anomalies in the western half of the United States, especially the northwestern U.S. and western Canada. The Northeast could see near normal or below normal readings. Since 1869, there were 9 cases where July saw 8.00" or more of rain. Only 1988 saw a much warmer than normal August (78.8° mean temperature). The remainder of that set of years saw mean temperatures below the 1991-20 August mean of 76.0°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +12.37 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.887 today.

On July 27 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.434 (RMM). The July 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.299 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (1.4° below normal).